Recently we were asked to comment on the new Reflection Lakes vendor gate policy as to how it will affect home sales in the community.  First, let’s state what the new policy is.  Basically, Realtors must purchase a keyfob for each listing for entrance into the gates.  Each keyfob costs $35 and is good for the term of the listing.  The keyfob can be saved and re-used for another listing for a $5 charge each time a new listing is taken.  Realtors must also submit a copy of the listing agreement to the association, as well as any extensions to the listing.

First, I don;t think the association needs to see the actual listing agreement.  A letter from the seller to the association stating the dates should be sufficient.  That listing contract is a private contract between homeowner and listing company.  By giving that information over to an association, there is no guarantee to the privacy and confidentiality.  A homeowner may not want released certain things that could be contained in that agreement.

 More importantly than the first point is the next point.  By forcing Realtors to purchase gate keyfobs, you’re essentially requiring all Realtors who wish to show a property to a prospective client to drive to listing agent’s company to pick up a keyfob to gain access into the community.  There is a reason Realtors purchase expensive lockboxes, and that is to minimize showing agents efforts to show the listed property.  It is a proven fact that properties without lockboxes realize far less showings than those that do have lockboxes.  Realtors simply don;t have the time to drive all over town picking up keys to show a property, then drive all over town dropping the keys back off.  Buyers don’t want to waste time either driving with their Realtor to pickup and drop off keys.  There is an abundance of properties on the market right now.  If a Realtor has to either drive to an office to pick up a key, or pick up a keyfob to even gain access to the community, it will be quite easy to skip those showings and move on to other more easily accesible listings in the MLS.  Keep in mind we have approxinately 16,000 single family homes on the market in Lee County, and over 8,000 condos.  There is no shortage.

 Even though this policy may be a Boom to the Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group because our office is located essentially within Reflection Lakes, it is bad policy for homeowners.  We can forsee every Realtor in town wanting to pickup a keyfob at our office simply becasue we’re located on-site.  We will make keyfobs available for our listings only.  We know other agents will show our listings just to gain access to a keyfob so they can show whatever other listing they wish to show.  We will have to come up with a deposit system from other Realtors to make sure we get these keyfobs back in timely fashion each time.  I’m sure that’s going to go over big, but again it’s the Association’s policy that is going to limit showings, not ours.

Essentially the association is taking al lockbox off each property whether they realize it or not.  Even though a lockbox might be on the property, the benefit of the lockbox has been destroyed because an agent still needs to drive to the listing company’s office to pick up a keyfob to even get to the lockbox.  In a down market, this is not the time to be limiting showings.  It is unfortunate that there isn’t another method of allowing access to Realtors for showings.

 I’m not sure if any Realtors were consulted on this issue before implementing, but I can assure all that almost all Realtors would tell the board this new policy is a bad idea for homesellers and property values.  The gates were put up to promote property values, and in this case the new gate policy may hamper property values by cutting off showings.  Don’t be surprised when showings go Down when the new policy takes effect.  At last count Reflection lakes had approximately 40 homes not paying association fees and facing foreclosure.  Do we really wish to limit showings in this kind of environment?  Curentlythere are about 45 Reflection Lakes Homes on the market.

The rest of the homeowners usually end up funding the unpaid fees of the foreclosures.  If properties in Reflection Lakes become even more difficult to sell, that number could rise.  Seems to me there could be another alternative.  Seems a shame to fix one problem and create another huge problem.

I salute the board for being proactive and making difficult decisions.  Their job is never easy, and sometimes has unintended consequences.  This is one such time.  I hope the board has the foresight to take this new information into account and consider any other alternatives that may be available to them for showings and listed property.  If the board has further questions, we can be reached at 239-489-4042.

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The Ellis Team at RE/MAX is hiring additional staff and buyer agents.  The Ellis Team never really cut back on marketing and that is paying off as our listings are selling.  In fact, we are generating so much interest that we need to hire additonal buyer agents to help handle the calls and Internet leads.  Buyers from all over the country, and locally,  are calling because property values have fallen back to affordable and attractive levels again, and buyers don’t want to miss this buying opportunity.  The Ellis Team is in need of two experienced agents to come in and learn and handle customers.  First class service has always been a trademark of the Ellis Team at RE/MAX, so we’re looking for experienced agents who have excellent reputations, great work ethic, and tremendous people skills.

We’re also looking to hire someone to help with our listings and closings.  We’re listing more foreclosure properties which require more work, and we’re closing more properties again which also requires more work.  We need someone with computer and people skills, excellent work ethic, and someone looking to grow in a team atmosphere.

If either of these positions sound interesting to you, please call us at 239-489-4042 for an interview.

The Southwest Florida real estate market posted continuing gains in March as single family homes sales rose 12.58% from February sales numbers, and condo sales in SW Florida rose 29.28% over the previous month, as you can see from the SW Florida Real Estate Homes Closed 2005-2008 chart.    Median sales prices for single family homes rose slightly over February numbers as well, but barely.  See Florida real estate sales prices 2005-2008 chart.

Sales numbers and prices are down Vs. 2007 numbers, but pending sales are defintiely on the upswing which could translate to higher closing numbers in the coming months.  Some of the monthly rise could be seasonal, however many agents we talk to are generally excited because buyers are definitely coming off the fence now in droves.  Sales numbers at the Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group have spiked, along with the phone calls. Internet trafiic is up as well, and buyers from all over the U.S. have been calling looking to buy now that SW Florida is attractively priced again.

Our foreclosures continue to sell at a brisk pace, and many times they are attracting multiple offers.

 

I’ve heard the politicians talk about everything for sniper fire, to denouncing what their pastor said, to drinking shots with the locals, and everything in between.  Does the public really care if you drink a beer or shots to make yourself appear like common folk, or how you disagree with your pastor?  Well, probably a few do or they wouldn’t stoop to such things, but I think there is one topic that should be at the top of this year’s election and I don’t hear anyone talking about it much.

The Southwest Florida real estate market, the SW Florida economy, and the US economy is basically on edge and is being held hostage.  We are being held hostage by gas prices which put pressure on inflation.  It’s to the point where our economy is being hurt and perhaps our national security too.  Senator McCain has proposed a gas tax holiday until the end of the year to help drivers, but I don’t think that will do any good.

The reason is we could wipe out all federal sales tax, and the producers of oil could just cutback on production a corresponding amount and prices would stay the same, and our government would be the only losers due to falling revenue and increasing profits to our suppliers.

The sad truth is our suppliers, like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and others are not our true friends.  They have their own vested interests, and America isn’t among it’s highest priorities. We really need to rely less heavily on outside suppliers to the extent we can.

I recently saw a Walmart ad that said just one energy saving light bulb can save an awesome amount of oil due to conservation.  I’m all for conservation.  However, I don’t believe we can conserve our way out of this completely.  Oil consumption is increasing in China and other developing countries, and even if we cut back oil is more sought after and we are in competition for it.  And even if we cut back 20%, OPEC can cut back production 20% and make just as much money, so why wouldn’t they?

I believe we need to do a number of things:

1.  Drill for oil in Alaska.  I’ve been told ANWAR is in a remote area and will not affect animals.  Even if it did somewhat, people are just as high on the food chain as animals and we need relief too.  No reason not to get this done

2.  We may need to consider drilling in Gulf of Mexico.  I know states like mine (Florida) and other gulf states oppose this, but we have our own oil and won’t drill for it.

3.  Nuclear.  We haven’t built a plant in decades.  Other countries want to build them, why not us?  If nuclear can save millions of barrels of oil each year, why not?  We use many now, why not add a few more?

4.  Refineries.  We haven’t built one of these in decades either.  We need to invest in our own infrastructure, and let’s do it soon.

5.  Grades of Gas.  Each area has its own standards, and makes gasoline expensive as the refineries have to shutdown to retool each season.  Let’s end this practice.

6. Ethanol.  What a joke.  It’s made corn and food more expensive, and it costs as much to haul the corn around as it does with the savings you achieve.  Now we have corn shortages and it’s done nothing for gas prices.  Nice idea, but may turn out to be more of a subsidy to farmers than savings to consumers.

7. Oil Reserves.  I’ve heard we’ve found major reserves in Montana, and Cuba has found big reserves in International waters off Cuba.  Wonder why Chavez has become such friends with Cuba.  Maybe it’s time to see what capitalism would do for Cuba instead of an Embargo.  How long has that embargo lasted.  Yes, we don’t get Cuban cigars, but it didn’t get rid of Castro.  Maybe a little capitalism and hope for the Cuban people would oust a bad leader quicker than oppression would.  I really don’t know, I just pose the question and let those smarter than me figure that one out.

Bottom line is nobody is policing the supplies, and we’re not doing anything to control our own security.  I understand why we go to Afghanistan or Iraq, to keep the terrorism over there before it could easily come over here.  But why do we let something much bigger control our own destiny?  Terrorists could shutoff oil supplies to US and shut us down much faster than any  single Trade Center bombing ever could.  Why aren’t our politicians talking about what they would do for gas prices, supply, and demand?  That makes more sense than who’s drinking a shot with the locals in PA, or who took more sniper fire.

 

This is the brand new 3 bedroom Belvedere Model from 1st Homes.

This beautiful Lehigh Acres, Florida home boasts many wonderful features including a spacious great room floor plan, a tech center or computer area centrally located near kitchen which is great for the kids or your home office area. The master suite offers his and hers closets and  two additional linen closets. There is a pantry in the kitchen and so much more.

Call the Ellis Team today to see this home or any of the many Lee County foreclosures, short sales and bank owned properties we have available.

The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group just released their monthly SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index and once again the Index has strengthened.  We’ve been reporting for months now the local SW Florida real estate market is firming as the Current Market Index accurately predicts real estate activity into the future.  Because of these numbers, we look for some continued strengthening in closed sales numbers for March and April.  Official March 2008 numbers should be released around April 25, 2008.

We are seeing strength because many of the short sales that were clogging the system have converted to foreclosures and are now being sold by one lender able to make decisions.  A short sale often involves multiple lenders plus a seller, and all have to agree to the sale.  Lenders in second position often don’t agree because there is nothing in it for them to agree, and lenders in first position don’t like to agree to a loss unless the second is completely wiped out.  There are exceptions to this, but we are seeing only about 3% of the short sales actually closing, and just about all of the foreclosures closing in due time.

Median prices have actually been rising, but we’re not focusing on that right now as many of the foreclosures are occuring at the bottom of the market, which could skew the numbers down.  By skewing numbers down, some could interpret that the entire market is coming down further, and that may or may not be true.  Median price doesn’t tell the whole story.  We have pockets of weakness and pockets of strength, and all real estate is local all the way down to the street and neighborhood level.

The higher the CMI Index, the more supply we have relative to demand.  The lower the CMI Index, the better the market for sellers.  As you can see, buyers are losing some of their leverage now.

April 15,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,706 1,656 9.48
Condo 8,445 602 14.03

 

March 15,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,357 1,610 10.16
Condo 8,789 603 14.58

 

February 14,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,694 1,088 15.34
Condo 8,787 456 19.27

 

January 14,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,812 821 19.26
Condo 8,581 334 25.69

 

December  17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,098 892 18.05
Condo 8,655 386 22.42

 

November 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,710 797 19.71
Condo 8,361 388 21.55

 

October 16, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,438 783 19.72
Condo 8,212 354 23.20

 

September 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,215 809 18.81
Condo 8,141 369 22.06

 

August 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 14,919 955 15.62
Condo 8,190 417 19.64

 

July 12, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,095 975 15.48
Condo 8,380 443 18.91

 

June 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,164 1,014 14.95
Condo 8,761 485 18.06

 

May 17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,607 1,107 14.10
Condo 9,205 560 16.44

 

April 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,896 1,152 13.80
Condo 9,660 569 16.98

 

January 23, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,769 1,016 13.55
Condo 9,002 529 17.02

 

November 27, 2006 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,186 1,031 12.79
Condo 8,344 535

15.60

SW Florida bank foreclosure auctionLast week we attended a major bank auction in SW Florida.  Over 100 homes were auctioned off.  One investor in attendance said that of the over 100 properties, only 6 were absolute and the rest were subject to investor approval, which if true means most of these will come back on the market

Most of the properties didn’t fetch a very high price, so they may very well not be acceptable to the end investor.  We will attemot to verify this with the bank.  The buyer has to wait up to 15 days to see if the investor on the loan takes the offer from the auction.

The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group lists a lot of the properties for this bank, so we may end up listing a good percentage of these listings that do come back on the market.  We did notice a few properties where the buyer overpaid for the home.  These buyers were probably inexperienced and didn’t bring a broker with them  to the auction to advise them they could have bought similiar properties in the same neighborhood for less money.  However, most properties went so far under value that most of the investors may not accept the offers, so many of these winning bidders will be disappointed.

Since the auction the bank has told many buyers and agents to contact us to be first on the list when we get thee properties in.  We get orders for the properties before they go in MLS.  We are identified as the listing agents, but it takes the bank a few weeks to tell us what the price is and authorize us to place it in MLS.  If you’d like to be on the list, give our office a call.  We plan to setup a group list whereby we can notify everyone at once when we get these listings.  They tend to be some very good buys.  For instance, we just listed a newer home in Lehigh Acres for $75,900.  It is an excellent buy.

The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group is hosting another free SW Florida real estate short sale seminar on Monday, November 26, 2007 at 7 PM  We will teach buyers how to effectively purchase properties in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and all of Southwest Florida at or below fair market value.

Registration is FREE, and you must call our office at 239-489-4042 as seating is limited.

SW Florida real estate market numbers released today by the Florida Association of Realtors show a continuing decline in the real estate market, which comes as no surprise as we posted our Ellis Team CMI Index numbers back on October 16 that suggested this would be the case.

Single family home sales fell to 327 in September, down from 520 in August, and 693 last September.  Single family home prices fell to $231,600 this September, and was down 7.7 percent from August’s $250,800 and down 11% from last September’s $261,400.

Single family home sales were the good news.  Condo sales fared worse, also predictable due to the CMI Index numbers released a few weeks ago.  Condo sales were 102 this September 2007, up from 96 in August, but down from 168 last year.  Prices for condos were up to $224,000, up from $218,800 in August, and down from $231,600.  The bad news for condos isn’t the prices or sales levels, it is the sales levels as compared to the level of inventory on the market.

Even with the poor numbers, they can partially be explained by seasonality, and partially by overall weakness.  See SW Florida single family home sales graph 2005-2007. To view sales prices , see SW Florida single family home price graph 2005-2007.

The Outlook going forward actually is brighter than the numbers indicate.  For the first time in a long while buyers are getting excited again, and are venturing out looking at homes.  For some, it is simply becuase home prices are back in their affordability range.  For others, it’s the sense that now may be the time to buy as prices have come down so much, and they’re feeling confident again going forward.

 

Not surprisingly, foreclosures in SW Florida are on the rise.  This can be caused for several reasons, most notably investors who should not have been in the market, marginal buyers who bought with an adjustable rate mortgage so they could qualify and the adjustments are adjusting right now and they can’t afford the new payment, rising insurance, and rising property taxes.

All combined have put pressure on the people who could least afford it.  Some agents have speculated that when the foreclosures happen, it will make for sweet deals for investors and home buyers.  I respectfully disagree, and I’ll explain why.

Many people bought with 100% or 95% financing at the top of the market.  The market has dropped around 20%, and the sellers are now upside down on their loan.  They don’t have the cash reequired at closing to offer the home at today’s market value, so they cannot sell.  No deal for a would be investor/buyer.  Many foreclosed homes are also in need of much repair, so you wouldn’t want to pay full market value on a property that needs money thrown at it.

Most people who buy foreclosures want a deal.  The deal just isn’t there from the seller.  You’ll get a better deal waiting for the bank to take it back.  Banks are no dummies, they get BPO’s (Broker Price Opinions) and appraisals.  They limit what they’ll lose by selling it for as much as they can get.  Some banks actually try to make a profit because it was insured with PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) so the bank’s exposure is only 80% of the original market value.  Coincidently, that’s about how much it may have gone down, plus repair costs, attorneys fees for the foreclosure, and lost interest.

Boiling this all down, it’s usually better to purchase from a seller who has priced their home at today’s market value, not what they owe, what they paid for it last year, or what they think it was worth last year.  There are many sellers out there who are listening to the market, and pricing it at market.  Those sellers are selling.  The backlog of inventory is from sellers who either won’t listen to the current market, won’t listen to their Realtor, have the wrong agent who also doesn’t know, or have a property that’s really hard to judge what the real value is.

If the seller doesn’t know the real value, the buyer isn’t likely to gamble on it either unless it’s a unique to what a buyer is looking for, or is simply irrestible.

Bottom line is, there are good values out there, just don’t count on the foreclosure market to provide them.