Today we want to share the national home prices trend data with you. We’re back fresh from our national convention where KW Research shared some interesting statistics nationwide and for Canada, along with some projections on where the market may be headed.
National Home Prices Trend
We’ve included a graph for you to study that shows the history of home prices nationwide over time. Added to the graph is a trend line, which is a 4% gain each year over time. As you can see, from 1990 to 2001 home prices pretty much stayed on track to the 4% average yearly gain. Beginning in 2002 the national home prices trend began accelerating above the line. Home prices began slipping in 2007 but still remained above the trend line. That changed in 2009 when we slipped below the trend line, and we remained below the line until 2021.
What Did We Learn?
It took 12 years to recover and go beyond the trend line again. What this tells us is if we get too far ahead of the national home prices trend line it can take years to recover. This doesn’t mean home prices weren’t going up, because they were starting again in 2012. When we get too far out of normal, the market pushes back and tells us.
In 2021 we pushed ahead of the trend line. This is OK because we were below it for 12 years and had some catching up to do. The concern is how far above did we go, and for how long can we remain there?
In 2006 we were 21% above the trend line. That was dangerous territory. In 2024 we were 9.9% above the trend line. Again, a high altitude, but not necessarily dangerous territory. Time will tell if a correction is necessary.
Alternative Resolution
What is also possible is the home prices will stagnate for a few years nationally, allowing the market to catch its breath, then resume the upward 4% trend after a few years. Nobody knows how the market will catch up or correct, we just know the market will.
In SW Florida we’ve already begun correcting. Unlike the national home prices, our home prices peaked in 2022. The average median home price in Lee County in 2022 was $430,000. In 2024 it was $404,900. That is a 5.84% decline. In January official median prices stood at $399,500 so they are still declining. Keep in mind the yearly average is an average of the year, so end of the year stats can be less than beginning of the year.
Ahead of the Curve
SW Florida may be ahead of the curve. Or, it could be that our home price appreciated more rapidly than national prices and we had further to fall. In 2020 the median yearly single family home price in Lee County stood at $289,000. In just two short years that number rose to $430,000 which was a 48.79% gain. Surely that was above the 4% trend line for SW Florida. We’ll have to calculate that one of these days.
Market Video
We will be producing an in-depth market outlook video that discusses all the research graphs, both locally and nationally, and break it down for you. Our Channel is located at https://www.youtube.com/@Topagent
You can also check out our Free instant home valuation tool at www.SWFLhomevalues.com , or call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We’ve got about 4-8 weeks left of season, so now may be the time to get your home on the market. Our marketing works year-round, but we do have more visitors here in March and April than in other months.
Good luck, and Happy Selling! Let us know if we can help.