While riding the train in Ireland last year the recording would state at each stop, “neither here nor there, mind the gap”. It was a profound announcement, and held more meaning the more you heard it. Here is our Mind the Gap Alert.

Mind the Gap Alert

Neither here nor there appropriately applies to train cars. Are you coming or going? And if you’re in the gap between cars, where are you really? And if you’re neither here nor there, perhaps you should pay attention, as a safety precaution.

Mind the Gap Alert

The gap is the no-man’s land between train cars, and other items in our life. For salespeople, the difference between their goals and their sales are considered the gap. The difference between what you set out to do today, and what you accomplish is a gap. Perhaps you got sidetracked with life. An unexpected event draws your attention away from your task. Most people get drawn away easily because they do not want to focus on the gap. Rather, it’s easier, and sometimes more enjoyable, to work on an emergency than the task you’ve been dreading.

Real estate agents that prioritize their most important tasks get more done and have more sales because they do the important things first. Successful people do not let emergencies dictate their calendar. Most emergencies are not really emergencies, but we like to give them importance as to justify doing something that “Needs our attention” versus the thing that will create the results we want.

How does the mind the gap alert pertain to the local real estate market? The gap we are looking at is the distance between listing inventory and pending sales. If that number is growing, it means inventory is rising. When inventory is rising, it means there were more sellers than buyers the past week.

When it All Changed

From January through August of 2024 the gap was stable. If anything, it was getting better. Then August came and the market seemed paralyzed. Listing inventory started growing and pending sales dipped.

What changed in August? Some agents felt like it was the NAR settlement and the news of how buyers had to hire an agent to show them property. Others felt like it was the cumulative effects of interest rates and job market uncertainty. Still others blamed the uncertainty of the election outcome.

Nobody knows the real reason, but there is no denying we must pay attention to the mind the gap alert. Consumers clearly were not confident about prospects in the 3rd and 4th quarter of last year, and it showed in the stats.

2025 is a new year. Will consumer confidence pick up? Where will interest rates go this year? Consumers must feel better about their future before they buy big ticket items. It feels like we are starting to see that, but it is just a feeling buyers are giving off. We do not see it with the data, and we didn’t expect to. It’s too early.

The next few months are the foundation to the rest of the year, and it starts with leadership in Washington. Can Congress work together to get things done? Will the president’s vision turn into reality. Has America bought in? Has the world bought in? Time will tell.

Thinking of Selling or Buying?

We do not control any of that stuff. What we do control is minding the gap.  Whether that be in our daily lives or studying the real estate market and taking appropriate action to get results, it is up to us.

If you have property to sell, there are things you can do. Check out your home’s value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com and track it’s value every month. Or, search the MLS and find your next home, or search your competition at www.LeeCountyOnline.com

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042. We are the hardest working team in real estate, and we’ll help you mind the gap with our experience and data research.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

The 2019 real estate market offers clues going into 2025 as to expectations and goals. Official numbers have not been released yet for 2024, but according to internal statistics complied by the Ellis Team, 2024 should end with about 13,506 single family homes closed in Lee County.

Back on September 4th we predicted Lee County would have about 14,109 single family home closings based upon the current strength of the market at that time. It looks like we’ll come in about 600 units short of that prediction as the 4th quarter worsened in Lee County.

Listings and Closings

We’d like to point your attention to two graphs. The first is the Homes Closed graph which shows the monthly closing levels of homes in Lee County. The darker blue line is 2019 and the lighter color blue line is 2024. We believe 2019 should be the goal for 2025 in terms of the number of sales and price changes.  The second graph compares the inventory levels from 2019 compared to today.

2019 Real Estate Market Homes Closed

 

In 2019 we had a maximum of 7,195 listings on the market in March. At last count, Lee County has 8,175 single family home listings on the market in Lee County. That is a 13.62% increase in listings versus 2019. We had 13,788 home closings in 2019. On January 9th of 2024 we had 1,210 homes pending. This year we had 1,113 on January 7th. Pending sales begin building this time of year, but we are about 107 behind 2019 levels, so we have some catching up to do to hit 2019 levels.

2019 Real Estate Market Inventory Levels

Is 2019 Real Estate Market Realistic?

Unless things change, 2019 may be aspirational, but a lot can happen in a year. Interest rates could come down, although that looks less likely. Interest rates are not likely to drive the SW Florida real estate market in 2025.  The primary driver of real estate in 2025 will be supply and demand, and pricing. Sure, we’ll look for economic changes, changes in tax policy, and any companies looking to relocate to SW Florida. Absent any breaking news or worldwide market conditions, 2019 should be our goal.

Let’s look at what prices were in 2019. Median prices were flat and ended the year slightly less than where they started. In January median home prices were $264,498. They ended at $262,000 in December.  If 2019 is the goal for 2025, the hope would be for median home prices to hold steady, if not lose a little. Keep in mind, we have 13.62% more inventory than 2019 and it’s still growing.  Mortgage rates were about 3.94% in 2019. Today they are in the low 7% range. We have some significant headwinds going into 2025 that were not present in 2019. The real estate market was just revving up for a run in 2019 after tax changes went into effect.

Today the US is working at extending those tax cuts, but our nation is in about $36 trillion worth of debt compared to $22 trillion back in 2019. The bond market is not as forgiving currently as back then because we’ve racked up so much debt.

Trust a Professional

If 2019 is truly our guide, we have many more stats and analysis we can share with clients. Give Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis a call at 239-310-6500 and we can discuss your goals and strategies to achieve them in 2025.

The Ellis Team knows the market, and we have strategies and marketing that make a difference. With so many agents leaving the business, the time is now to hire a real estate professional. Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Call for Dates and Times 239-489-4042

 

The Ellis Team is happy to report increasing open house attendance as we kick off season in SW Florida. In fact, we noticed this trend started in December which is not normally a big open house month.

Increasing Open House Attendance

Will increasing open house attendance lead to more sales in 2025? So far it has not, but you must begin somewhere. For people to go out and look at open houses means there is some level of interest in making a move. For some, it is changing their current home. For others, it might be adding a 2nd home in a far warmer climate. Whatever their reasons, they have some interest we haven’t seen in a while.

Buyer Motivation

Buyers are taking a cautious approach. When buyers fear that another buyer will beat them out on a scarce property they want, they act quickly. Currently, buyers are not viewing inventory as scarce, and they are not worried about losing out on a specific home, in most cases. Buyers feel like if one property sells, another one is either currently on the market or will come to the market soon. Buyer motivation appears indifferent, and indifference is the death of sales.

This could all change, and it will someday. When buyers fear the market is stabilized and other buyers could beat them out to a hot new deal, motivation increases. The problem is most buyers want to see evidence first. Nobody wants to take the first leap, unless of course they need housing. If you own a home, you may not have to move. A buyer may wish to move, but they may not have to. Ironically, a buyer that needs to sell a home first is selling in the same market they are buying. If a buyer waits for their property value to rise, the property they wish to buy may also rise.

Real Winners

The real winners will be the renters that come off the fence and have nothing to sell. These buyers have excellent choices because we have inventory. They are not competing with thousands of buyers right now. A buyer can lock in today’s low prices, and perhaps someday lower the monthly cost if interest rates decline.

This reminds me of a graphic I saw on social media that hit home. Buyers today, because of the herd mentality, feel safe when everybody is buying, but somehow feel unsafe when few are buying. Logically we know it is better to buck the herd and buy when others are not and sell when everybody is buying, but that’s not what we as humans do.

Increasing Open House Attendance

Increasing open house attendance is the first stage of buyers exploring their options. They are curious, and beginning to wonder if the time might be now to dip their toes in. Should we get any bit of encouraging news, like lower interest rates, a major trade deal, or regional announcements like a major company moving here, this could give buyers the confidence they need to move forward.

Many people do not realize Amazon just made a major land purchase here in Fort Myers and plans on opening a new warehouse, in addition to their operations off Alico Rd. Announcements like this can be the catalyst for buyer confidence. Buyer confidence is momentum, and all it takes is a change of direction for it to move the needle.

If you’re curious about buying, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com It has ways to search you cannot find on the major portals, so more ways to find that hot buy. If you’re thinking of selling, check out www.swflhomevalues.com This site will give you an instant estimate of your SW Florida’s home worth, and will help you track the value over time.

You can call us at 239-489-4042 and we can help you with your options.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

Featured Home of the Week

5839 SW 1st Ct Cape Coral FL

Today we’d like to offer our 2025 home buyer insight predictions. These predictions are based upon decades of working with buyers and studying human behavior.

Phase 1

Buyers have been reading about the Fed cutting interest rates.  This news will spark interest in buyers, but it won’t make them act. The psyche of buyers is to wait for rates to come down, then act. So far rates have gone up since the Fed began cutting rates. In buyer’s minds, they will want that 1% back plus the rate cuts to justify taking action.

2025 Home Buyer Insight Predictions

Phase 2

The Fed has stated that rates may have to remain higher for longer to combat inflation. They intended to cut rates four times in 2025 but have backed off to possibly two. Some argue they shouldn’t have cut rates in December, or at all until inflation was under control. The bond market has been telling us the Fed got this wrong, and they are betting on higher rates.

Home prices are down. Buyers want their cake and eat it too. They wish for lower home prices simultaneously with declining interest rates. Once buyers realize they can have one but not the other, they may begin to act. The disconnect will be the time it takes for buyers to realize they have maximum negotiating advantage with sellers today, and rates are not going down substantially soon. During this period, we may see muted home buyer activity.

Epiphany

We call this the light bulb moment. Home buyers at some point will realize this is the best time to buy. They have maximum negotiating leverage. Buyers can lock in today’s low prices with a historically average interest rate. Sure, rates seem high compared to the free money days of years ago, but those days are gone and may never come back. And if rates do go down, buyers can refinance to a lower rate, all the while looking into the low prices today’s market has afforded them.

Buyers tend to shop in herds. When everyone is buying, it makes sense to buy and outbid the next person. When it’s a buyer’s market, why not hold off and wait for prices to come down even more? And while we’re at it, let’s wait for interest rates to come down too! It’s this herd mentality that leads buyers to buy with emotion rather than facts, because they feel there is safety in numbers. If everybody is doing it, it must be safe.

Buck the Herd

The opportunity comes when humans buck the herd. This is true in the stock market and real estate market; Humans try to time the market and buy at its absolute low and sell at its tip top high. The reality is most sellers miss the tip top because it’s over before they realize we hit a top. Most buyers miss the low because it too is over before they realize we hit the low.

2025 Home Buyer Insight Predictions

We believe at some point buyers will realize the opportunity they have and begin home buying. You can only hold off major purchases for so long. When you need housing, you need housing. Affordability has come into play as home prices have come down, and insurance costs are leveling out. More insurance carriers are coming into Florida, and we see that market stabilizing. Good things are on the horizon for home buyers that choose to see opportunity. Home buyers in 2026 and 2027 will still be OK, but they may miss that golden opportunity they dream about if they sleep through 2025.

If you’re looking to buy in SW Florida, check out www.LeeCountyOnline.com We have all the listings, and you can do things on this website you won’t find anywhere else. Check it out. Or call our team at 239-489-4042 We’ll talk you through your options and see if 2025 is your year to build family wealth.

Good luck, and Happy New Year!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

10813 Dennington Rd Fort Myers FL 33913

10813 Denninghton Rd Fort Myers FL 33913
Bridgetown at the Plantation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

5839 SW 1st Ct Cape Coral FL 33914

5839 SW 1st Ct Cape Coral Fl 33914

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

2513 SE 1st Ave Cape Coral FL 33904

2513 SE 24th Ave Cape Coral FL 33904

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

6935 Old Whiskey Creek Dr Fort Myers FL 33919

6935 Old Whiskey Creek Dr Fort Myers FL 33919

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

3356 N Key Dr Unit 7 North Fort Myers FL 33903

3356 N Key Dr Unit 7 North Fort Myers FL 33903