The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group just released their monthly SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index and once again the Index has strengthened. We’ve been reporting for months now the local SW Florida real estate market is firming as the Current Market Index accurately predicts real estate activity into the future. Because of these numbers, we look for some continued strengthening in closed sales numbers for March and April. Official March 2008 numbers should be released around April 25, 2008.
We are seeing strength because many of the short sales that were clogging the system have converted to foreclosures and are now being sold by one lender able to make decisions. A short sale often involves multiple lenders plus a seller, and all have to agree to the sale. Lenders in second position often don’t agree because there is nothing in it for them to agree, and lenders in first position don’t like to agree to a loss unless the second is completely wiped out. There are exceptions to this, but we are seeing only about 3% of the short sales actually closing, and just about all of the foreclosures closing in due time.
Median prices have actually been rising, but we’re not focusing on that right now as many of the foreclosures are occuring at the bottom of the market, which could skew the numbers down. By skewing numbers down, some could interpret that the entire market is coming down further, and that may or may not be true. Median price doesn’t tell the whole story. We have pockets of weakness and pockets of strength, and all real estate is local all the way down to the street and neighborhood level.
The higher the CMI Index, the more supply we have relative to demand. The lower the CMI Index, the better the market for sellers. As you can see, buyers are losing some of their leverage now.
| April 15, 2008 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,706 | 1,656 | 9.48 |
| Condo | 8,445 | 602 | 14.03 |
| March 15, 2008 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 16,357 | 1,610 | 10.16 |
| Condo | 8,789 | 603 | 14.58 |
| February 14, 2008 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 16,694 | 1,088 | 15.34 |
| Condo | 8,787 | 456 | 19.27 |
| January 14, 2008 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,812 | 821 | 19.26 |
| Condo | 8,581 | 334 | 25.69 |
| December 17, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 16,098 | 892 | 18.05 |
| Condo | 8,655 | 386 | 22.42 |
| November 14, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,710 | 797 | 19.71 |
| Condo | 8,361 | 388 | 21.55 |
| October 16, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,438 | 783 | 19.72 |
| Condo | 8,212 | 354 | 23.20 |
| September 15, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,215 | 809 | 18.81 |
| Condo | 8,141 | 369 | 22.06 |
| August 15, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 14,919 | 955 | 15.62 |
| Condo | 8,190 | 417 | 19.64 |
| July 12, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,095 | 975 | 15.48 |
| Condo | 8,380 | 443 | 18.91 |
| June 14, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,164 | 1,014 | 14.95 |
| Condo | 8,761 | 485 | 18.06 |
| May 17, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,607 | 1,107 | 14.10 |
| Condo | 9,205 | 560 | 16.44 |
| April 15, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 15,896 | 1,152 | 13.80 |
| Condo | 9,660 | 569 | 16.98 |
| January 23, 2007 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 13,769 | 1,016 | 13.55 |
| Condo | 9,002 | 529 | 17.02 |
| November 27, 2006 | Active | Pending | CMI |
| Single Family | 13,186 | 1,031 | 12.79 |
| Condo | 8,344 | 535 |
15.60 |