Last week we showed statistics about the Lee County Florida distressed market and compared today’s numbers to each month dating back to August of 2011. This week we’d like to illustrate how prices have fared and compare them dating back to 2009 for some perspective.
Median prices rose to $127,000 this year versus last August when they were at $103,200. That’s a healthy 23.06% rise in prices from last year. As you can see from the graph that shows the last 4 years of data, about this time of year we can have some seasonal price adjustments to the downside before they start heading back up around November.
Prices actually fell slightly from July 2012 to August 2012, down 2.23% from the previous month. We don’t get too concerned about monthly swings as we like to look at overall trends. The reason is certain properties may be scheduled to close one month and fall into the next month due to delays by the lender or title. If 100 properties are delayed it just depends on the mix of properties and their prices as to how it affects the median price for the previous month.
This all works itself out over time. As you can tell from the long term trend we’re riding high in 2012. Foreclosure filings are close to the same levels in 2012 as they were in 2011 so it doesn’t look like there is a huge wave of foreclosure heading to the market.
We’ve had much uncertainty in the market due to the upcoming presidential elections as well as the tax increases headed our way in January. Not only will we have tax increases but we’ll have certain job cuts which will ripple through the economy. This has created uncertainty and made businesses reluctant to hire until these issues are sorted out.
We may start to see price increases about December, or the hangover from the elections may carry over into Main Street and help keep the status quo for awhile.
Ordinarily you would think we’d be poised for price jumps as inventory is down but we don’t think we’ll see the big price increases until jobs and the economy picks up. We have several factors in play right now. The old supply/demand theory is still in play, and we have to add jobs, income, and consumer confidence into the equation as well.
Assuming we get an actual plan to deal with our budget, and that’s a big if, businesses can start planning again. If new taxes aren’t too onerous hopefully we can get a balanced budget and a plan that allows the economy to add jobs. If and when this happens real estate is poised to take off in SW Florida.
If this d doesn’t happen real estate should hold its own and have modest gains over time. Our prices are still pretty low even though they’re higher than the bottom in 2009.
The Ellis Team is selling homes. We just opened a new Free MLS property search site people may find easier to use at http://www.AllSWFLrealestate.com/ Let us know how you like it.
Watch our October 2012 SW Florida Real Estate Update
If you have a home to sell you should talk to us. 239-489-4042. If you’re looking to buy your piece of paradise, let one of our knowledgeable and friendly buyer specialists guide you through the maze. Give us a call; you’ll be glad you did.
Good luck and Happy House Hunting!