Can you believe it’s 2017 and we still receive phone calls from people who say “I want to buy a foreclosure in Southwest Florida?”  It’s true.  Short sales too.

Who wouldn’t want a bargain, especially when prices have risen so much from the bottom of the market back in the housing crisis?  People also watch those TV shows and see how others flip houses for unbelievable profit with little to no work.  Other TV shows illustrate how buyers can buy a property, put some sweat equity into it, and flip for amazing profits.

Want to Buy a Foreclosure in Southwest Florida

Southwest Florida isn’t that market.  In September there were exactly 2 short sales and 13 foreclosure sales in Lee County.  As we know Hurricane Irma slowed down sales, so we went back to August and found there were 8 short sales and 41 foreclosure sales.  Short sales and foreclosures combined came to about 4% of the total sales in Lee County in August, and about 2% in September.  There just are not many short sale and foreclosure listings out there.

Want to Buy a Foreclosure in Southwest Florida

We get it, everybody wants a deal.  However, the thing people need to know is when a bank agrees to take less to allow a short sale, they still do an appraisal.  They may consider taking less if the owner is a default risk and the property’s value is truly below market value.  What they will not do is give the property away just so a new buyer can keep the equity.  If a bank is going to take a loss, they want to minimize the loss.

When a bank sells a foreclosure, they typically want as much money as the market will allow for the property in its present condition.  The banks often even spent money to fix up homes to increase their value.

There are good values in Lee County, you just need to know how to find them.  Wasting time searching for 2% of the market will leave buyers frustrated.  It all depends on your definition of a good value.  Homes priced at or near fair market value are a good value.  Homes priced well over are not and will probably not sell unless the seller makes changes.

There are two ways to find value.  First is pick a website that has all the listings and is updated instantly.  Our website www.LeeCountyOnline.com has all the listings and it’s updated every minute.  So when a Realtor inputs a new listing, or makes a price change, our database will know about it and display the new information.

In a race to beat out other buyers to the best listings, speed wins.  Having perfect knowledge of the market back in 2007 will not help you buy a house today.  And having day old MLS data from yesterday will not help you either.

Secondly, you need an agent on your side that understands the market.  Agents with experience know how hurricanes, interest rates, new schools, company headquarters, new roads, hospitals, etc. affect the market.  Numbers are great, but having an expert helping you can make all the difference.

 

The Ellis Team has been around for 30+ years in Southwest Florida.  We’ve done thousands of transactions, and some people think we’ve seen everything.  We haven’t, as we see new things all the time that still amaze us.  What hasn’t changed is people.  People still want the same things for their family today.  They still use the same negotiating tactics.  They may have different tools, but the tactics are the same.

We can help you navigate the maze of real estate.  From selecting the property, to negotiating, to inspections, and closing, we help coordinate it for you.  You don’t have to worry as we handle the process.  If not the Ellis Team, make sure you’re working with an experienced team who will be there for you.  It’s all fun and games until somebody gets poked in the eye, then the name calling begins.  We’ll help you avoid all that.  Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042.

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2 Condos in South Fort Myers

The Southwest Florida real estate inventory supply increases in the 4th qtr.  All price ranges except two increased with the most pronounced increases occurring in the $400,000 and up range.

Southwest Florida real estate inventory supply increases in 4th Qtr

In December, the $400k-600k range shot up almost 2 months from 9.34 months in September to 11.15 months currently.  The $600k-$1 Million shot up from 12.57 months to 14.69 currently.  That’s over a 2 month jump.  The biggest jump occurred in the $1 Million+ range where there was a 17.03 month supply back in September.  Today that number stands at 21.04 months.  That’s almost a 4 month jump in supply just since September.

Southwest Florida Real Estate Inventory Supply Increases

It pays to know where your home stands in the supply chain.  It tells you how aggressive you must be when selling your home.  The overall market stands at 5.65 months which is a healthy number.  People read headlines and hear there is a 5.65 month supply, so homes must be selling fast.  They figure with homes selling so fast it’s probably easy to stick a sign in the yard and sell it.

Even at the lower price ranges there are still many homes that do not sell, because they are over-priced.  If they were priced correctly and properly marketed, they would sell.  The demand is there, at the correct price.

As we go higher in price the demand is still there, it’s just that the supply is even greater.  Recently more homes are coming to the market than are selling, hence why we have increasing supply.  We can’t look at the overall market and assume all homes are selling the exact same.  Just as we can’t assume that all cities in Florida are behaving the exact same.  Real estate is local, and it is segmented.

Certain cities or neighborhoods sell better than others.  This can be due to economic factors, or perhaps location.  The closer to beaches, or top schools can affect values.

Lee County is getting ready to change how children are selected for schools starting in 2018.  This may put an end to the zoned system and busing system as we know it.  Children will go to schools closer to where they live, and this could affect values.

Segments also affect the market.  Sometimes the low end is red-hot, and other times the mid to upper markets make a comeback.  Generally speaking, the lower the price the greater the demand as more people can afford lower prices.  Not everyone can afford high-end real estate.  Just because Southwest Florida Real Estate Inventory Supply Increases in some price ranges doesn’t mean it increases for all ranges.  In fact, a few decreased.

Right now we have an affordable housing crunch in Southwest Florida. Rents are high, and so are median sales prices relative to what the average working person can afford.  It makes it difficult to find housing close to where you work.   We saw this back in the housing boom too.  This doesn’t mean our market is over-inflated.  It just means there is a cap to how much more and how fast it can rise until incomes pick up.

The big price gains may be over, unless the economy comes roaring back.  Our US economy has essentially had free money for the past 8 years and it’s done nothing except help the stock market.  If jobs and economic activity return like it’s believed they will post-election, our real estate market  could be in for more good times.  If nothing changes, we could be in for flat to modest gains.

We think 2017 is going to be a year of change.  Home sales may pick up even though rates will continue to rise.  Proper pricing and aggressive marketing will become even more important, and the people who act quickest will save the most money when rates rise.

You can search the MLS for Free at www.LeeCountyOnline.com.  Our database has all the homes, and it’s updated every 5 minutes directly from the MLS.  It will even notify you of new homes or price changes if you save your search.  You can always call us at 239-489-4042 and we’ll be happy to discuss your buying or selling options.

 

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

December 2016 Ellis Team Seller’s Club Report

 

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San Carlos Park Pool Home $269,500

Gateway 5 Bedroom Pool Home on Lake

Real estate shifts are the natural ebb and flow of the market.  The real estate market never stays constant.  It is affected by supply and demand, employment, the economy, interest rates, weather, political forces, and more.  Our world is in a constant state of shift, so why would the real estate market be any different? We’ll show you why the SW Florida real estate shift is real and it is in effect.

Nobody would expect the stock market to stay the same each day.  People know that it goes up and down, and many times it does so in the same day.

Currently the SW Florida real estate shift is on.  Last week we reported that sales prices have been flat all year.  Some prices ranges have gone up and some have gone down, and overall the market is flat.  If you didn’t read last week’s article on about SW Florida home sellers  we’d encourage you to go back and read it as the graphs show perfectly what is going on with prices.

SW Florida Real Estate Shift is On

SW Florida Real Estate Shift

Today we’d like to focus on closed sales.  As you can see from the chart, closed sales are down in Lee County versus last year.  In fact, they’re down 9.04% year over year.

We have rising inventory, declining sales, and stagnant home prices.  I’d call that a shift.  It’s nothing to worry about or blatant in the numbers, but something to be aware of going forward.

In a shifting market, marketing is more important than ever.  To get top dollar your home must compete and stand out.  It must do so in three ways.

Everyone knows if they wish to sell something it pays to have interest from more than just one party.  Imagine selling an item online.  Would you rather have 1,000 bidders or just 1 bidder for your item?  Of course, everyone would choose multiple bidders when selling.  The same is true in real estate.  You don’t necessarily need multiple bidders; however, you better expose the home to multiple parties.  Everyone would agree that 100% exposure equals top dollar.  Anything less may net you less than top dollar.

Secondly, while marketing is most important, no amount of marketing will sell an overpriced home.  We could spend a million dollars marketing a property.  If it is worth $500,000 and we price it at $1 million will it sell?  Of course not.

Thirdly, the agent you choose may be the most important factor of all.  You want an agent that will give your home the most exposure.  You want an agent with experience to know what price it should start at, and the wisdom and courage to tell you when it’s time to adjust.  Inexperienced agents may not know how to price, and they may not have the courage or confidence to tell you an adjustment is needed.

When I go to the doctor because I fear something is wrong I don’t want a doctor who will tell me what I want to hear.  Of course, I hope its good news and nothing to worry about.  However, if it isn’t I want a doctor to tell me straight-up so I can make quick decisions and rectify the bad situation.  The sooner you deal with a medical issue the less pain you may feel on the back end.  In life, the sooner you deal with issues the quicker they are resolved and the sooner you get back to living life.

The same is true in real estate.  When making a real estate move, don’t call that friend who just got their license or that family member who needs help.  You want the best, and your financial success depends on it.  Especially in a shifting market.

When financial markets shift, you’ll hear the term “Flight to quality.”  This means a movement towards safety and dependability.  In real estate, sellers move towards experienced agents who can guide them through the shifting maze.  Now is when experience counts, and your future depends on the advice, expertise, and marketing from agents who can guide you.

If you go on a swamp buggy tour, you’ll know what I mean.  You want a tour guide who’s done this a time or two and won’t tip the buggy over in alligator infested swamp water.  We’ve done this a time or two, so feel free to call us if you’d like to buy or sell in SW Florida.  Visit our website at www.LeeCountyOnline.com to see all properties in the MLS or find out what your home is worth.

Watch our SW Florida Real Estate Shift Predictions Back in February 2016

If you look at the February and March 2012 graphs for single family home sales in Lee County, you’ll quickly notice that a large percentage of homes have sold for cash versus financing. This is not a new trend. While cash sales have saved our market the last few years, it does have its good and bad points. And we’ll attempt to explain why we’re seeing so many cash sales as well.  Cash Sales Dominate SW Florida Real Estate Market!

Cash Sales Dominate SW Florida Real Estate Market
SW Florida Cash Sales Versus Financed Sales

You would think that with interest rates at historical lows, more people would be jumping on the train to buy now and finance. Homeownership is affordable, as rates are low and prices are low compared to the height of the market, although prices are on their way up. We believe price will go much higher if the government would get out of the way and make financing possible again.

Local lenders are complaining, as are buyers, that the Dodd Frank Act has made it so difficult for qualified borrowers to actually produce unnecessary redundant and onerous documents that many just give up. Banks have gone from easy documentation loans in the boom to crazy stupid documentation now. We can’t just blame the lenders, because lenders are just following new provisions of the Dodd Frank Act. You might recognize the names, Chris Dodd and Barney Frank, two names synonymous with getting loans and perks from the banking industry maybe they shouldn’t have gotten. We’ll leave those scandals for another story. I’m sure you can read all about them over the Internet.

In an attempt to regulate and improve the mortgage market, Dodd Frank has hurt the market in several ways. Parts of the act require higher down payments which will take many buyers out of the market. 2 recent studies suggest requiring all buyers to put at least 10% down would force about 40% of otherwise credit worthy buyers out of the market and requiring 20% down would force about 60% out.

Mortgage Rates 2010-2012
Mortgage Rates Trends

FHA has always required about 3-3.5% down and allows sellers to pay buyers closing costs, and their delinquency rates haven’t been substantially higher than banks requiring 10% down or more.

Secondly, and speaking from personal experience, the documentation requirements banks are adding because they’re afraid of getting fined or having to buy back the mortgage are awful. We’ve had several buyers have to go back to the Social Security Administration and request newer social security cards because their older cards may not reflect a name change due to a divorce, marriage, etc. The number has stayed the same throughout their life, and the lender can see this, but they still require the new card which pushes back the closing. Because the closing gets pushed back, it generally requires all new bank statements and employment stubs. We’ve had lenders wait until next month’s stubs before they’ll loan the money, so both buyer and seller must wait.

Wait, there’s more. Because a few fees might change due to the delays, like the interest rate lock may have expired, or the prorations could be off due to the delays, it required a new Truth in Lending Disclosure. You guessed it, if the lender has to re-disclose, there is a waiting period for that. That waiting period could trigger more bank statements, and updated pay stub, etc. It seems the cycle never ends, and it’s ridiculous. It’s no wonder listing agents want to know which bank is approving the buyer, and if the bank has a track record of delaying deals due to extemporaneous paperwork, it may cause the seller to accept another buyer’s offer over that one.

Lenders are getting penalized under Dodd Frank, and they’re getting hammered by sellers and real estate agents who are looking at best offer and most likely to close on time, if at all.

We feel that requiring higher down payments wouldn’t stop the market in a correction like the one we saw starting in 2006, so why add that on to borrowers who could never save that down payment while paying rent, preventing them from the American Dream? And even if you disagree with that statement, most would agree that Dodd Frank is preventing the market from moving higher because it’s essentially blocking access to capital markets for many.

Don’t get me wrong, if you’re qualified, you can get a mortgage. You just have to know where to go to get the money, and be prepared to document everything just in case.

Good luck and happy house hunting. Rates are low, and prices are low but on the rise. If our buyer agents can be of assistance, feel free to call us at 239-489-4042

SW Florida Real Estate Update April 2012

One thing is for certain.  Every year about this time two things occur.  Real estate experts begin prognosticating what they think will happen in the New Year, and most Americans profess what their new resolutions are for the New Year.  (Well, at least for the first few weeks)

SW Florida Real Estate Market New Years Resolutions

You know, we hear the usual stuff.  I’m going to join a gym, quit eating sweets, lose 10 pounds, quit smoking, attend church regularly, make an effort to spend time with somebody, or change some type of behavior.  Some stick, and some don’t, but we all seem to do it every year.

Maybe we do it in our personal lives, and maybe we do it in our professional lives as well.  I always wondered if the real estate market had a voice what it’s resolutions would be, so for fun I came up with a few.  Like any resolution, some will never happen, but wouldn’t it be nice if in some magical way all our resolutions stuck all year.  Here’s an idea on what we think the market’s resolutions might be:

  1. Short Sales-Banks would speed up short sale
  2. Less Foreclosures-In part because homeowners who cannot afford to stay would successfully navigate and close a short sale
  3. Economy-Jobs is what will pull us through.  May 2011 bring a better economy and jobs to SW Florida
  4. New Construction-Brings jobs, and will be a sign prices are recovering to the point people choose to build again
  5. Prices Increase-Prices may be artificially too low right now, but one day they will recover.  Wouldn’t it be nice if this happened this year?
  6. Lee County would attract outside business to relocate to SW Florida-We know the county and Chamber is working hard on this.  Results in 2011 sounds like a great resolution
  7. Commercial rebounds because economy improves and new tenants fill empty buildings
  8. Red Sox Stadium pays for itself-Lee County is saturated with new fans seeking warmth and sunshine
  9. Homeowners Associations cooperate and help us close properties faster
  10. Cities like Cape Coral and Fort Myers code enforcement worry less about every little dime and work with banks to actually get properties closed so we can get new buyers into property.
  11. Government goes on a diet-Property taxes decline again and more people can afford to move here.

I know, not all of these things will happen.  Just like in the real world, it’d be nice to have a perfect wish list.  I’m sure you have others.

May 2011 bring more prosperity than 2010 did, and hopefully we’ll see some meaningful improvement we can build upon.  Together we’ll all get through this.  Don’t forget, it’s always darkest just before the dawn.  If you keep your head in the sand, you might miss the sunrise.  With a little luck and hard work, may 2011 bring that sunrise and a beginning to a new day.

No, we’re not talking about Santa’s bag here.  We thought this week we’d do a mailbag of topics, and invite questions for future articles.  If you have a question or topic you’d like covered, simply e-mail me at Brett@Topagent.com and we’ll do our best.

Interest Rates

Yes, they’ve been on the move, and the move has been upward.  Rates have risen about .625% in the past 1-2 weeks.  For every 1% rise in rates, it takes away about 9% of a purchasers buying power, so buyers have just lost about 5% buying power in the past 2 weeks.  This is why the media and Wall St. talk about rates so much and where they are today versus historically.  Now, they are still historically low, but they have been moving up.  With prices this low, and rates still fairly low, buying power is still great even though it may not be what it was 2 weeks ago.

SW Florida Real Estate Market Update
It's in the Bag

Foreclosure Listings

Foreclosure listings for single family homes active on the market in Lee County stood at 768 in November Versus 1,107 today.  That’s a 32.42% increase in just one month, and we can attribute this to banks placing properties on the market after the foreclosure moratorium because of the robo-signing issues.  Most banks feel confident going forward, especially for their non-occupied properties.  We see this as a good sign.  The quicker we get all inventory out and to the market the faster the market can heal and move forward.

Pending Sales

Pending sales rose again in November which indicates buyers are ready, willing, and able to buy and they’re making every attempt.  This is another reason we’d like to see all available inventory on the market as the buyers are definitely biting.  All areas of Lee County are seeing a rise in pending sales.  Cape Coral saw a rise of 60 pending sales over last month, Fort Myers saw a rise of 69 sales and Lehigh Acres experienced a rise of 32 pending sales.  Season is upon us and we’ve notice an uptick in buying activity from buyers up North sooner than we did last year, which could mean we’ll be in for another good season this year.

Current Market Index

Each month the Ellis Team produces a current market index which accurately predicts forward activity in the SW Florida real estate market.  This month the index dropped to 4.22, down from 4.62 last month.  The lower the number the hotter the real estate market is.  A higher number indicates a buyers market. We wouldn’t say it’s a buyers market.  We’d characterize it as a sellers market if the property is priced correctly.  Buyers are competing against each other with multiple offers on properties that are priced correctly, and bypassing over-priced listings.  The market speaks.  Sometimes it’s as easy as slowing down and listening to what it’s saying, and if a property isn’t receiving offers, then there’s a good chance it’s the price.  The market is hot, but it’s not forgiving.

Closed Sales Flat

November closed sales were relatively flat Versus October.  In fact, our research shows they’re down slightly, but official numbers won’t be released until next week.  Last November sales rose, so when official numbers come out we could see a transaction drop from last year.

This is the last article before Christmas believe it or not, so next week we’ll either answer your questions or provide updated analysis once official numbers are released.  We hope Santa is good to you and brings you good tides and good cheer, and no matter how big the bag is this year, always look for opportunities to lift somebody else’s spirits this Holiday season and into the new year.

This week’s SW Florida real estate video update presented by The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group focuses on cape Coral Florida.  Cape Coral is leading sales transactions in Lee County due to the number of foreclosures and short sales bringing affordability back into the SW Florida real estate market.

Cape Coral Real Estate Video Update

View This Week’s Cape Coral Video Update.

Check out the entire SW Florida real estate State of the Market Report