Tag Archives: Fort Myers Home Sales

Summer Vacation

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Historically summer is the best selling season for single family homes in SW Florida.  This is defined by the number of sales that occur in the summer months.  Lately we’ve seen a decline in the overall sales numbers, and this is directly attributable to the recovering real estate market and the lack of foreclosed properties on the market.

SW Florida Single Family Home sales by Qtr
Lee County Single Family Home Sales

Of particular note from the official sales numbers that were just released shows a decline in median sales prices down to $127,000 from $132,000 the month prior.  The $127,000 price was still 8.45% higher than last year’s number.  If you look at the last 4 years of sales prices you’ll notice a gradual trend for decreasing prices starting about May or June.  It will be interesting to watch what happens with next month’s report.  In each case however numbers either flattened out or rebounded nicely by the end of the year.

Median Home Sale Prices in SW Florida
Greater Fort Myers/Cape Coral Area Sales Prices

2012 is also an election year, and typically in election years people hold off a bit until there is more certainty in the business climate.  This year’s presidential election is far from certain.  We doubt the election will hold many people back this year simply for the fact that this year is different in that we have a limited supply of homes on the market.

We also think that the median price is being dictated by the supply, not the demand.  The demand has been pretty steady.  You can’t buy a $50,000 foreclosure if it doesn’t exist, just as you can’t buy a beachfront home for $500,000 if it doesn’t exist.  The supply has changed so much over the past few years buyers have been stuck buying what little they can.

Supply has affected the quantity of sales and also the price.  We are expecting to see some more foreclosures come to the market as they work their way through the legal system, and the market has proven time and again its appetite is more than healthy.

Interest rates are at historical lows so purchasing power for the buyer has never been greater.  Buyers are chomping at the bit to buy anything nice in their price range.  As we go to the higher price ranges there is more selection, so sellers cannot overprice.

Banks are just about ready to lift the declining market tag on our market which will help with lending.  We almost met the standard last month but a rise in foreclosures coupled with a decline in price spoiled the fun, but if we would happen to get a nice rise next month it might be enough to lift that tag.

If you’ve got a house to sell now may be a good time to look at the market in certain price ranges.  If you’re looking to buy a home, you really can’t afford to miss these interest rates.  We don’t know how long they’ll last.  All we can do is enjoy them while they do.  If rates were to double they’d still be ok, but not great.  It would knock many buyers out of the market though and drop the price of the home they could afford.

I guess what we’re saying is if rates go up significantly, a buyer will be able to afford a much less desirable home than today.  This will affect a buyer significantly.  It will also affect sellers, because as rates rise, the buyer pool shrinks like a Shrinky Dink.

In the meantime, we’ll keep an eye on the market with particular attention to upcoming distressed sales, inventory levels, and of course how the Presidential candidates might affect taxation and the overall economy.

Good luck and happy house hunting!  If you need real estate assistance please don’t hesitate to call the Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group 239-489-4042

 

Official SW Florida Sales Numbers Reveal Higher Prices

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Last week we reported we expected sales to be roughly even if not slightly behind 2010 levels when official numbers were reported.  Well, its official and we were wrong.  Sales actually increased by 25 sales over last year.  Single family home sales were reported as 1127 sales versus 1102 last year.

Fort Myers - Cape Coral SW Florida Homes Closed
SW Florida Homes Closed

We also reported listing inventory actually went up slightly by 43 units which was another change in direction.  It turns out the sales weren’t a change in direction, but it doesn’t matter.  Whether they were up or down 25 units statistically it’s not a big difference.  What was interesting was the first change in direction, and something we wanted to monitor going forward.  While we’re usually correct with our predictions, this time we were off on the sales numbers.

Home Sale Prices in Cape Coral - Fort Myers Florida
SW Florida Real Estate Home Sale Prices

There was another bit of good news in the official numbers.  Not only were sales up, but prices rose 17.6% over last year and 7.17% from the previous month.  This could be because home affordability is at an all-time high and buyers today can afford more home due to lower prices and lower interest rates than ever before, or it could be because there was less distressed this past month.  In fact, in September 50.77% of all single family home sales were distressed, down from 54.26% in August.  Those numbers were as low as 44.57% in June of 2011.  Banks have not brought significant foreclosed inventory to the market since the robo-signing fiasco, although we’re being told this may change in January as several of the large banks are able to bring more as they’ve worked through legal issues pertaining to those questionable foreclosures.

Pending sales were down last week, so we’ll have to see how this affects sales going forward, however they are typically down this time of year and start picking back up again going forward.  There is some seasonality in these numbers we like to account for, and this year is no exception.

We have noticed our roads are getting busier and our northern friends, sometimes referred to as snowbirds, have begun their trek to SW Florida, and judging by our phone calls and Internet leads, many are in search of their piece of paradise.  This could bode well for another strong season in the SW Florida real estate market.

Two new programs were just announced that will greatly benefit distressed homeowners.  One program allows underwater sellers to refinance their home no matter how much is owed if it is a FNMA or Freddie Mac insured loan as long as they’ve been current on their mortgage in the last 6 months, and another program that offers sellers up to $20,000-$30,000 in financial assistance to move and sell their home for less than what is owed.

We’ll bring more information to you about these two new programs in the coming weeks.  If you’re a homeowner and struggling to make your payments, you might be interested in either of these programs.  Simple give us a call at 239-489-4042 or email me at Brett@topagent.com feel free to visit our website www.Topagent.com for other timely information and links to our videos.

 

Sales Up and Prices Down

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Last week we wrote that pending sales were up which may be a sign that closed sales might increase in August over July, and in fact sales were up 4.74% over the previous month.  We also posted that pending sales were down 19% from last year, and official numbers just released show actual closed sales were down 4.71% from last year. These are not stellar numbers, but keep in mind July sales were down 27.45%

Fort Myers, Cape Coral Single Family Home Prices 2010
SW Florida Single Family Home Prices

Sales could be up because median prices fell again 5.45% from the previous month, and 1.01% from last year.  By the attached chart you can see that home prices peaked in April of 2010 as opposed to reaching the bottom last April.  Home sale prices have now crossed over and fallen behind last year’s numbers.  This is a telling sign, and one that is playing out all across America as the real estate market has stalled along with the economy.

Homes Closed in Fort Myers- Cape Coral
Single Family Home Sales 2006-2010 Fort Myers, Cape Coral Florida

Transactions pick up as prices go down, but we’d like to see more stability in the market.  The median home price factor is more of an indication of affordable priced inventory as 1st time home buyers and investors are snapping up entry level homes as fast as they come on the market, and less inventory means fewer sales.  We’d like to see more sales in the mid and upper price ranges before we can say we have a healthy market, but we don’t hear anybody calling this a healthy market just yet.  Even though 2010 shapes up to be the 2nd best year on record for closed home sales, there is not broad support across several submarkets to call it a healthy market.  If it was strong we’d see rising prices.

The good news is prices have held fairly stable except for a temporary run-up, and season is again right around the corner.  Oil did not make it to SWFL, and today’s prices could again lure many from up North to purchase this season.

We’d like to see our government get back on track and offer incentives to get our economy and real estate market back on track, but that may have to wait until after the November elections as the current administration just doesn’t get it.

Real estate is traditionally about 32% of GDP and Main Street and the economy are married for better or for worse.  It’s hard to cure one without the other, and yet we don’t seem to be doing anything to help either.

In the meantime, interest rates are at record lows, affordability is at record highs, and buying power has never been better, so anyone who is qualified to buy is in good shape.  If the banks were to release more inventory, look out as this market could take off again.  Failing that, we may be in for status quo numbers for a few months until some questions are answered in the elections and the job market turns around.

Pending Sales Increase

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Pending sales lead to future closings, so studying pending sales over time offers a glimpse of what may occur in the 30-60 day future.  Obviously not every home closes, but it is a good barometer of what may close.

Nationally numbers were released this past week and pending sales increased 5%.  The SW Florida real estate market pending sales increased 4.11% over the previous month which is pretty much in line with national numbers.

Pending Home Sale Graph Fort Myers-Cape Coral
Pending Sales Fort Myers Cape Coral Florida Area

Pending sales are down 18.67% vs. pending sales last August, and this is in line with official sales numbers.  In July, sales were down 27% vs last year, so maybe when official numbers are released for August we won’t be down as bad as we were for July.

We’ve noticed a trend the last few election cycles whereby when people are uneasy about their jobs or the economy real estate sales tend to fall off just a bit in anticipation of the next election cycle.  Suffice it to say the November elections are on people’s minds, and how could they not be with all the ads on television during the primaries.  It is an encouraging sign that pending sales picked up in August over July.  Last year August sales were down slightly over July, so August isn’t always a month where we expect them to increase.

Interest rates are at record lows, and we’ve seen buying power in the $150-$300,000 price ranges increase substantially.  We believe sales could increase in this price range going forward into the next year as buyers realize they can buy much more home for far less money than they thought they could, even 1-2 years ago.

Inventory Levels in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Lee County Florida
Single Family Home Inventory Levels - pending Sales

As you can see from the attached chart, inventory levels in the Fort Myers and Cape Coral areas have been holding steady, and this is also true countywide as well, although the numbers are larger.  We’ve included a detailed pending chart as well showing pending sales from last year to present.  We’ll keep reporting what happens going forward on current real estate trends in SW Florida.

Be sure to check out our SW Florida Real Estate Market update for September directly from our Future of Real Estate Channel.

It’s Official-3rd Quarter Sales Sets All-Time record

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Last year we told you 3rd quarter sales were very strong, which led up to an almost record 4th qtr in 2008.  Official numbers are in, and 3rd qtr sales in 2009 blew past last years big numbers and surpassed 2005 record numbers by a mile.  To put this in perspective, last years sales numbers were up 72% over 2007 numbers.  This year’s numbers were up 109% over last year.  2005 was the biggest sales number year we had ever seen, and 2009 was up 35% over 2005.

All you read or hear about is how bad the market is, and there is some truth to what you hear.  Rarely though do you hear the whole story, and sales numbers tell a compelling story.

Our market has gone through a predictable healing process.  It’s a process nobody looked forward to, but sometimes you have to hit bottom before you can go back up.  Simply put we had too much inventory and phantom demand.  The demand we thought we had was investors flipping to other investors like musical chairs, until one day the music ran out.  We had high employment because builders were building at warp speed, and we needed mortgage brokers, closing agents, not to mention appliances, carpet, etc.

Then one day when it became apparent the demand was phantom, building stopped as speculators stopped buying from one another.  That led to a severe market correction that was inevitable, which further led to job losses throughout SW Florida.  These further job losses created a downward spiral, which increased foreclosures from not only investors who walked from deals, but regular people who lost their jobs.

The only solution unfortunately was to begin a healing process of selling these homes, which of course was going to be at a price much lower than the high’s of 2005.  The prevailing questions were always, how low would prices have to go, and how long would it take.  And the answers are related.  The higher the prices, the longer the process would take.  Because SW Florida led the state in price drops, it also led in the healing process.  Our prices dropped faster than any other area as evidenced by pricing reports on our website at www.topagent.com under housing statistics.  Thus we have set record sales levels even surpassing the 2005 levels.

Single Family Home Sales By Qtr Lee County Florida Real Estate Market
Single Family Home Sales By Qtr Lee County Florida Real Estate Market

Many people think that because we’re setting record sales levels, prices should rise, and they are partially correct.  However, we’re not done yet with the healing process.  Prices coming down from unsustainable levels was only the beginning of the process.  Prices won’t rise dramatically until we bring back employment to the area.  Oh, we’ll see some rising prices as snow-birds flock to the area this season not wanting to miss out on a great deal.  This won’t lead to massive price increases though because we still lack a driving economic force, which are jobs.  And jobs is not just a SW Florida problem, it’s a nationwide problem.

We’ll also see some price increases as less entry level foreclosures enter the market and we swing more to mid and upper tier foreclosure price points.  Again, these are just statistical numbers.  Median prices may rise, but prices in certain neighborhoods can actually fall due to more foreclosures and distressed sales at higher price points.

The good news is SW Florida has cleansed itself pretty well comparatively speaking.  It’s kind of like a company with lots of inventory in a down economic cycle.  The company can place the inventory on sale and blow out the old inventory, and when the economy rebounds that company is well positioned to capitalize as they are not saddled with high inventory coming out of a recession.

Our market has done a good job of discounting and selling the inventory.  What’s out of our hands is the national economy.  We have sunshine and good weather, but we’ve always had that as an advantage.  We either need the national economy to improve, or we need to steal some jobs from another city and have them relocate to SW Florida.  This may sound bad, but it’s done all the time.  GM just relocated some plants from one state over to IN.  Indiana’s gain was another state’s loss.

So let’s pray the economy gets better soon as it’s good for our real estate market and good for jobs.  And if our local leaders have a few tricks up their sleeves to lure businesses to our area it would be great.  I think our area has suffered and we deserve some good news.  If a company is looking to relocate, it might as well choose SW Florida vs. some other state.  It would be good for their employees to move to a nice place like SW Florida where we have a good work force, decent schools, great weather, and wonderful things to do year round.  If you’ve ever been cooped up for months during a miserable winter, you know the advantages of living here.

So let’s hope our Economic Development Council will be announcing some exciting news soon.  We could all use some good news.  Until then, let the healing continue.

SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index

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It’s been a few months since we’ve reported numbers for the Current Market Index, so here is the update.  The Fort Myers-Cape Coral area index now stands at 4.02, up slightly from 3.86 in September and 3.81 in August.  The lower the index numbers the better the market for sellers.

This is a result of slightly rising inventory numbers, but very much in line with inventory numbers back in August.  We’ve seen continuous dips in inventory for quite a few months leading up to October, and this is the first month we’ve seen a slight increase.  Pending sales are down ever so slightly as well, however nothing that is statistically significant.

Current Market Index SW Florida Real Estate
Current Market Index SW Florida Real Estate

Existing sales are holding up nicely and still showing healthy gains over last year.  Buyer interest from around the country is strong.  In fact, our team has so many buyer leads coming in that we need to hire 4 more buyer agents to keep up with the activity.  We think season this year is going to be very strong.  Temperatures up north have been unseasonably cold this fall and it’s looking like they could have a long and cold winter.  Traditionally this is always good for the Florida market as snow-birds look for a tropical escape and potential property purchase.

The snow-birds we’ve talked to are already motivated to purchase.  They witnessed first hand that some properties are up about 20% in price over last year as the pickings are getting slim in certain segments.  They realize this season may be the last season to pickup many of these bargain basement priced properties.

We’re seeing waterfront properties in the Cape for example bouncing off their bottom last year for entry level direct access properties.  We’ve also seen a bottom in Cape Coral for entry level homes, especially pool homes.  This has fueled an increase in sales in the Fort Myers and Lehigh Acres market. Fort Myers home sales in September increased by 6 sales. Cape Coral lost 35 sales versus the previous month.  Lehigh Acres gained 7 sales versus September.

As sales potentially shift from the Cape over to Fort Myers and Lehigh Acres, we could see a bottoming in prices there as well.  You’ve heard the term that water seeks it’s own level.  As prices get too high in a given area, buyers shift their focus to other more affordable areas.  Many have preferred to live in Cape Coral over Lehigh Acres, but in the run-up back in the early 2000’s, prices in the Cape got so far ahead of Lehigh Acres that buyers shifted to Lehigh for the value, and thus a boom began in Lehigh.  As foreclosures hit hard, many buyers scooped back into the Cape for the bargains and preferred the Cape over Lehigh all else being equal.  Because we’ve sold many of the Cape foreclosures, the bargains are not there like they used to be, so we’re seeing this shift to wherever the bargains are.

We’re still in a bargain market for the time being, but that could change.  Northerners are starting to fear that the bargains are drying up and they don’t want to miss out, so this season could get very exciting.  It’ll be interesting to watch where the money goes, and what happens when the foreclosure well starts to run dry.  How will that affect the overall market?

Speaking of foreclosures, it appears banks are cranking up the process on a whole new batch of foreclosures.  Some have speculated that banks purposely waited until the end of 4th qtr which ended Sept 30 to file these new lawsuits so their books would look better.  Wall Street has a history of doing this for earnings and results.  A friend of mine has even speculated banks are keeping losses off their books this year to pad their earnings so they can collect bigger bonuses.  There may be some truth to that.

Last year we saw a spike in Lis Pendens filings for precisely the same theory.  We’ll have to watch the November and December filings to get a feeling if this is another Wall St accounting trick of holding back what they can, and thus the October spike, or if this is a long-term trend.  If this is a long-term trend, then it will stall increase in prices.  If this is merely a short-term blip like last year, we could see fewer bargains and more actions from northerners fearful for missing out on one of the best buying opportunities in awhile.

Just like back in 2005, you cannot calculate the absolute top of the market until it’s in your rear view mirror.  Timing the bottom of the market is much the same way, and in fact we’ve seen a bottom already in certain segments.  The entire market doesn’t always move in unison.

Our advice to buyers is simple.  Regardless of whether this is the absolute bottom, we’ve already seen the bottom, or we have a little bit more to go, prices are bargains right now.  You may not want to miss this general time period, because one day soon we may look in the rear view mirror and kick ourselves for missing the buying opportunity of a lifetime.  All the bank’s misery and misfortune can now become your gain.  Somebody is going to capitalize on this misfortune.  Why not you?

Fort Myers Cape Coral Real Estate Sales Soared to Another New Record in May

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SW Florida real estate sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral Florida set new records again in May with single family home sales in Cape Coral and Fort Myers totalling 1,417 sales, eclipsing the May 2005 sales record of 1,309.  See SW Florida Real Estate Homes Closed 2005-2009 chart illustrating home sales by month since 2005.  Median sales prices for single family homes in Cape Coral and Fort Myers was up 3.51% from April median home prices, up to $88,500.  For a complete look at median single family home sale prices in Fort Myers Cape Coral since 2005, see the SW Florida Real Estate Sales Prices 2005-2009 graph.

Prices are still falling in the mid to upper levels of the SW Florida real estate market, while prices seemed to have stabilized in the entry level market.  First time home buyers are buying as fast as they can as they compete with investors for the best bargains.  Short sales are picking up as banks cut through the red tape of approving short sales, although time frames are still long.  Canadians are buying properties in SW Florida due to the favorable exchange rate, and the fact that Florida is on sale.

Fort Myers Cape Coral Real Estate Sales Soared

Condo sales for May in Cape Coral and Fort Myers were up 41% Vs. the State of Florida which was up 21%.  Median sales prices for condos in SW Florida were down 35% year over year, as opposed to the statewide average of down 38%.  See the Florida Sales Report May 2009 Existing Condos graph.

It looks like the 2nd Qtr is shaping up to be another record setting quarter for home sales.  The 1st Qtr home sales in Lee County Florida sure was.  We won’t know for another month when June sales are officially released.

Shortly we’ll be releasing the latest Current Market Index for Fort Myers and Cape Coral for June which should explain where our market is headed.

Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate July 2008 Current Market Index Levels off

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The Ellis Team SW Florida real estate Current Market Index leveled off in July to a 7.51 mark, up slightly from the 7.23 numbers in June.  The lower the index the better it is for sellers, and the higher the index the better it is for buyers.  We witnessed 5 straight months of decline before this leveling off.

 

SW Florida Current Market Index July 2008 Ellis Team RE/MAX

Single family listings in Lee County Florida rose slightly from 15,634 to 15,668, while pending sales dipped slightly from 1,697 to 1,574.  Both factors contributed to the slight uptick in the CMI index.  This could be somewhat seasonal.  We’ve also noticed a surge in investors swooping in to buy distressed bank foreclosures in recent weeks, which could be a positive sign.  Investors tend to be less emotional and more analytical about the numbers, and their comfort level with today’s prices speaks volumes.  It is important to note that these pending sales have been translating into significant increases in closing volume of 2007 levels.  Home sales in Lee County were up 43% in June over last year’s numbers, following up on a big increase in May as well.  Prices are down and volume is up.

The CMI index in Fort Myers actually improved, while Cape Coral softened just a bit.  Listing inventory of single family homes declined in Fort Myers from 2,528 to 2,489, while inventory in Cape Coral rose from 5,092 to 5,104.  Pending sales dipped slightly in the Cape while they held steady in Fort Myers

SW Florida Real Estate Market Improves Dramatically in April

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Sales numbers released by the Florida Association of Realtors for April 2008 shows the Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate markets sales increased dramitically.  In fact, sales are up over March numbers as well.  SIngle family homes sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral increased 41% over last year’s numbers, and Condo sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral increased 57 % over last year’s numbers.

The Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index is an accurate indicator or future sales, and has been improving steadily since January 2008.  In January we began reporting that sales numbers should begin picking up, which has been the case.  Pending sales started increasing, followed by rising closed sales.  Inventory levels have been falling in 2008 which is a good sign for sellers.  We still have a high level of inventory, but it is getting more manageable everyday.

Median home prices have fallen, but that does not mean that all home prices are declining.  We have seen solid sales in Cape Coral.  Lehigh Acres home sales have fallen behind Cape Coral.  We’ll be posting some very interesting numbers within a week or so illustrating those differences.  Median home prices have fallen, and that is an indication that more of the home sales have occurred at the bottom half of the spectrum.  As the bottom has firmed up, it will eventually translate into firming in the higher price ranges.  We are getting more offers today in the $300,000+ range and that is encouraging once again.  It all started with that $100,000 range which led the charge.

Many properties in the $100,000 range have multiple offers on them and buyers are scrambling to get these properties.  In fact, buyers display desperation when competing against other buyers to get in on these deals.  The Fort Myers News Press did a home sales story on the April Fort Myers and Cape Coral numbers.  Money Magazine also did a story on national home sales and it talked about how Cape Coral Florida is leading the nation as one of the bright spots.

Stay tuned as we look for more good numbers being reported in when May’s numbers are reported next month.

 

Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate May 2008 Current Market Index Improves Again

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The Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index showed improvement once again.  We decided to illustrate what is going on in Southwest Florida real estate in graph format this time.  Basically inventory is falling and pending sales are remaining steady as closings are picking up.  Read below graph for further analysis.

Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate May 2007 Current Market Index

The latest Fort Myers – Cape Coral data shows a Current Market Index down to 7.47, down from 7.71 in April 2008.  The lower the number the better the market is for sellers.  The higher the number the more of a buyers market it is.  Lee County Florida numbers have fallen steadily as well.  Actually home sales numbers in Cape Coral Florida are some of the strongest numbers in the county right now.  The Cape Coral CMI index stands at 6.32 which is less than the rest of the county.  Lee County overall stands at 9.57. 

Single family homes on the market dropped to 15,340 while pending sales stood at 1,603.  To put that in perspective, pending sales back in January were 821, so you can really see sales have picked up significantly in the last few months.  Most agents, mortgage companies, and title companies I speak with are busy again, although prices are down.  Agents essentially have to do twice as much work and close twice as much to compensate for the losses in sales prices.  Additionally, it takes time to educate buyers as to what is ocurring in today’s market, just as it took time to educate sellers when the market turned in 2005 and 2006.

Short sales also create extra work as many times there can be multiple offers on the property and no guarantee the bank will accept any of the offers.  Overall this is welcome news because real estate fuels the rest of the SW Florida economy, and a surge in real estate activity can only help the rest of the economy over time, even if at lower prices.