Ellis Team Weekend Open House Archives - Fort Myers Real Estate and Homes For Sale

Lee County median sales prices declined $10,500 in March 2023 from February. This is significant because median home prices generally increase throughout the season. We have been reporting for months that home prices dropped in 2022 but nobody realized it because most people focus on year over year numbers.

Year-over-year median prices were up 1.9% in March. The median sales price this year stands at $437,000. Last march it was $429,000. In February of this year the median price was $447,500. Looking forward, the official number for April 2022 was $470,000. If the median sales price doesn’t climb to $470,000, we’ll be reporting the first year-over-year loss in a while. About 6 months ago we predicted we would see this drop with the April or May numbers.

Preliminary April Numbers

One thing that could change Lee County median sales prices that is if April sales numbers come in higher. Preliminary numbers reported through April 25^th when this article was written suggest numbers of $445,000. This number will be off because there are some closings that haven’t been reported yet, and some closings that haven’t taken place yet.

The end of the month always includes several sales. If the $445,000 number holds up. It would be a 5.32% drop.

Why Studying the Market Matters

We study the market to give our clients an advantage. For instance, years ago when we saw our Current Market Index turn negative, we got all our sellers out before the big price decreases. It’s never fun to be caught chasing the market down. When the market is moving upward, it is important for buyers to get in there quickly and beat out other buyers to hot new listings. Waiting literally costs the buyers money.

Predictions

We are not making predictions about the market here. We’ll save that for our clients. We are simply reporting what we are seeing. The predictions about when we would see negative numbers weren’t really a prediction about the market. That was more of a mathematical equation that was going to reveal itself in the future, and the future is almost here.

We believe home sellers are going to be just fine moving forward. Sellers must price their home correctly and market it correctly and success will follow. Today’s Current Market Index is stable, so we don’t see large price fluctuations anytime soon, unless market conditions change.

We do have the possibility of lower interest rates on the horizon as the economy slows down. Lower rates help borrowers afford more, which could lead to higher prices in the future. A declining economy may weigh against that as more buyers lose their jobs.

X-Factor

The X factor will be how many people continue to relocate to Florida who do not need a job to purchase or have a job that will allow them to relocate. Those remote jobs are drying up as more employers require their workers to show up in person, but there are still some out there.

The true answer is nobody knows what the future of real estate prices will be in SW Florida. We are watching all the indicators driving values and on balance they appear to be neutral. If you have a property you’re considering selling, call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500. We will be happy to guide you through your home’s value and what improvements if any would be most beneficial for your sale.

You can always visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a Free Instant home value of your home. We think it’s kind of cool to track that value over time, which the system will do for you.

If you have your eye on a property but are not quite sure how to pull it off because you have a property you would need to sell, we should talk. We are experts at making things happen, and we have some creative financing options you might not know about that can help.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

Free Shred Event Saturday April 29th 10 AM- 12-PM

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5846 Wild Fig Ln

3 Bed 2 Bath $350,000

Inflation may help home buyers in the long run. Here is why. Currently home buyers can borrow right now at less than the cost of inflation.

Typically, the Fed wishes to raise interest rates higher than the cost of inflation to help lower inflation. Right now, a borrower can get a 30-year loan in the low 5% range. Inflation has been raging at over 9%. That’s almost a 4 percent spread between the cost of borrowing and inflation.

Inflation May Help Home Buyers

Secondly, we know that real estate appreciates long term at higher than the cost of inflation. See our article back in May titled “Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation in Uncertain Times”

If housing appreciates faster than inflation, and you can borrow currently at less than the cost of inflation, it makes sense to buy what you can today. This is a great long-term strategy. Unfortunately, most people worry about the short-term. Rising inflation hurts the economy and purchasing power, and this leads to pain in the short-term. The Fed’s mission is to quell demand, and that is true for all spending.

Housing can be hurt in the short-term and this can put negative pricing pressure on homes. Home prices could come down some, but keep in mind we have a shortage of homes being built, and that is getting worse because builders are slowing down building in the middle of a recession. Long-term it will be very hard to keep housing prices down because the demand will be there when interest rate pressure eases.

Risky Strategy

Some buyers will try to time the market for when home prices fall. The problem with this strategy is if home prices do fall some, interest rates could also rise, which will negate all benefits of waiting. Higher borrowing costs can outweigh any potential price savings. Because borrowing rates are far below inflation, now is a good time to jump on that rate.

We are still seeing many buyers moving to Florida. We are also seeing some buyers moving out of Florida as their employers call them back into work. Remote work has been good for Florida real estate, but that party is ending for some companies.

What will be fascinating to watch will be how many companies decide to relocate to Florida in the coming years. On a regular basis we hear of more and more companies making the move to Florida. While companies may call workers back to the office, more of those offices could be in Florida in the future.

Inflation is hard on everyone. To tamp it down, the Fed is forced to do some awful things. Sadly. Doing nothing is worse than cracking down on inflation, so something must be done. We believe lowering the M2 money supply would do far better than simply raising rates, but this is where we are.

The labor market is showing signs of weakness going forward. Once this occurs, the other obstacle will be the price of oil. Many believe oil could rebound to $150/barrel. This will not help inflation if this occurs.

Inflation adds to the cost of everything, so one day when construction does pick up again, presumably it will be at higher prices due to higher costs. Some commodities like lumber are decreasing, but petroleum goes into so many things like clothing, roofing, roads, etc. The next 30-90 days will be pivotal for oil prices, so keep an eye on that.

Smart Money on Real Estate

The bottom line is, with all the uncertainty out there, real estate may not be a bad bet. Sure, home prices could rise or fall. In the long-term, those that own real estate are far better off than those who don’t. Currently you can leverage today’s rates to increase long-term value.

People always talk about borrowing costs in relation to today’s purchasing power. It might be time to think about long-term purchasing power and how to accomplish that. This moment in time might be that window.

Search the MLS like a Realtor at www.LeeCountyOnline.com Check your home’s property value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com or call Brett or Sande at 239-310-6500

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

206 SE 1st Pl Cape Coral Florida

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

12157 Lucca St Unit 201 Fort Myers Florida

Sunday Open House — 12157 Lucca St Unit 201

While home prices may be lackluster, 2018 local home sales are still at a near record pace. With YTD data compiled through October we see 2018 better than both 2017 and 2016 numbers, and only slightly behind 2015 numbers. November was a strong month, so when official numbers are released later in December, we believe we may even close the gap a bit heading into finishing out the year.

2018 Local Home Sales Still at Recent Record Pace

We hear so many agents talk about a shift in the market. We can’t rule out what may happen in the future. All we can do is discuss what is happening now. Right now, we haven’t seen a shift in pricing or sales numbers. There may be another kind of shift we’ll discuss later.

Home prices have been flat since January 2017. Today’s prices are roughly what they were 2 years ago, and they really haven’t changed much over the last two years. While the rest of Florida and the country have appreciated, Lee County has not. We don’t see a significant bubble ahead because of this fact, and because this market is different than the last bubble. We have end users for homes. In 2006 we didn’t.

Pressure

We have pressure in the market. Interest rates have risen which has lessened affordability for buyers. The pressure is simply market forces exerting itself on the market. Pressure will influence direction, and not necessarily change it. In other words, pressure can limit growth without causing negative pricing. If you add enough pressure, it can. Pressure can come from a variety of sources. Interest rates, wages, economic growth, unemployment, tourism, politics, taxes, supply, demand, and many more. When you throw them all in the crock pot, its fun to see which ones win out. We can predict, but forces are always changing in intensity and scope.

Other Shift

Sometimes in business the numbers don’t change, but the way business is conducted does. When Amazon entered the market, physical retailers may have sold less, while online sold more. Overall sales could have been more or less, but it was certainly less for the physical retailers. The same can be true in real estate. We could have the same number of transactions, but agents accustomed to doing a certain amount may feel like the market has shifted because their numbers are down, when it really hasn’t.

Real estate is changing. Sellers aren’t always reaching out to agents who have a track record of selling homes for more money, and faster. Sellers are selecting agents by who called them on phone, who they saw online, or at an open house they attended. It’s harder and harder for consumers to know which the really good agents are. Some of the really good agents are scratching their heads and wondering where the business is going and wondering why consumers aren’t contacting them as much.

Advertising that used to work 10 years ago may be less effective today. The point I’m making is agents can’t judge the health of the market by how their own sales are going. Just because an agent’s sales are up 20% or down 20% doesn’t mean the market is. The Ellis Team is up big time in 2018, and yet we realize two things. We must keep adapting or we’ll get run over, and we have to keep our eye on the local market and look for changes.

Agents Must Keep Up With Technology

Change is inevitable. It’s like raising a child. Perhaps you’ve done a great job and your kids are great at 12. They’re not fully done yet, and you must keep it up for many more years. Things can change quickly if you don’t stay on top of it. The market may be balanced today, and move in a year or two. Forces change, and so will the market.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty Fort Myers & the Islands with your real estate questions. If you’re thinking of selling, ask for Sande or Brett 239-489-4042 Ext 4 Or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to sell all the homes in MLS and find your piece of paradise.

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

Open House Sunday 1-3 PM

While many agents in SW Florida are complaining about lack of closings the numbers just do not bear this out. Statistically average sale prices are about what they were in the boom of 2005 and early 2006, and 2018 single family homes closings almost at boom levels as well.

Back in 2005 we had 12,273 single family closings. In 2017 we had 12,356, and 2018 is on track to beat that. The peak for closings was between 2009-2011 when prices were a lot lower. Today we have peak level pricing and high levels of sales.

Looking at the single–family homes sold chart shows 2018 neck and neck with 2015 levels, which was a very good year. We ran Year to Date numbers and discovered 2018 is just 16 closings shy of the 2015 pace. When we look at real estate pricing along with months supply of inventory, we realize the 2018 real estate market is doing very well.

Back in July 2015 the months supply of homes was 3.8 months. July 2018 it stands at 4.9 months. Anything below 5.5 months is considered a seller’s market. The median price in 2018 stood at $255,000 and the average stood at $350,566. Back in July 2015 the median sold price was $209,830 and the average stood at $326,883. In 3 short years that’s a 21.53% rise in median price and a 7.25% rise in average prices.

Real estate agents tend to report on how the market is doing in direct relation to how their business is doing. This is not a good way to judge the market as shifts in market share can affect your production, and not necessarily the market. The average agent does less than 1 deal per year. The average full-time agent may do less than 7 deals per year. If an agent’s production goes from 7 deals one year to 4 deals the next, it might feel like a drastic market change has occurred to that agent. The reality is maybe their marketing isn’t working like it used to, or maybe they’re not working as hard or as efficiently as before. Neither scenario is a good market indicator.

Our team consistently sells over 100 homes per year. This year our goal is 225. Because we’re big advertisers, our homes sell fast and for top dollar. Large teams like the Ellis Team may siphon off more deals from single agents which cuts their production to less than last year’s levels. In this case, it feels like the market isn’t as strong, and they honestly tell this to their clients because that’s their experience.

It pays to study the numbers. Agents should study their numbers and compare them to the overall market. In doing so they’re much more likely to spot actual trends in the market and rely less on feelings and estimates.

We’ve been studying the market for decades, so we know when the market is on the move. Getting Top Dollar is a function of knowing exactly where the market is, and quite possibly where it’s heading. The only way you can do this is to know exactly where it is and exactly where it’s been. Experience and market conditions fill in the blanks from there.

Whether you’re buying or you’re selling, you need to know this information. Make sure you’re working with an agent that studies the numbers. If you’re considering selling, call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4. If you’re in the market to purchase, our team can help you too.

For a free computer analysis of your home’s value, visit www.swflHomeValues.com We have an app that has all the open houses every weekend. If you’re interested, give us a call.

Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty! We’re here to help, when you need us and how you need us.

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

Open Saturday 1-3 PM

Florida International real estate sales rise 21% of total dollar volume and 15% of total sales in 2017. Both numbers were up versus 2016 numbers. This tells us that foreign buyers are here purchasing, and because the total volume is higher, they are purchasing higher than average priced homes.

So where are these Lee County foreign buyers coming from? According to the Florida Realtors profile of international real estate activity, Lee County saw the largest amount coming from Canada, followed by Germany and United Kingdom.

Florida International Real Estate Sales Rise

Just this past week the Ellis Team placed a property under contract with a Canadian buyer, and we just completed a transaction with a German owner. Over the course of time, these countries fairly well describe who buys in Lee County from overseas, but there are fluctuations.

Two factors that influence foreign buyers are the changes in currency valuations, and the home price growth from the foreign country.

The Canadian dollar hasn’t moved much against the US dollar, so you might wonder why the increased interest. Canadian home prices have been sky-high. They have equity. Some say they’ve risen so high the bubble might burst as there is no rational basis for why their prices have grown so high. But then again, there never is in Canada. They have their own economic forces. It’s like gravity is different up there.

Canada was number 4 in the world for real price growth behind the Philippines, Hong Kong, and New Zealand. This confidence and equity has spurred opportunities for Florida as Canadians love visiting our sunshine and beaches.

72% of foreign buyers pay cash. But Canadians only finance 14% of the time. United Kingdom buyers finance 23% of the time.

Ellis Team markets to Foreign Buyers

The Ellis Team markets to foreign buyers as well as US buyers. In a market like Florida you have to market to reach the entire universe of buyers. Especially given the fact that 21% of Florida’s sales volume comes from foreign buyers.

While this report covers all of 2017, there can be shifts. We study our website traffic over the last year and compare to the last month and week. We see some recent changes. This past week Canada still led the way, followed by Germany and Sweden. United Kingdom is at #9 for the year and not even in our top 10 for the last week. Brazil slipped to #9 in the past week. They’ve been in the #6 spot for the past year.

Changes in currency, political environments, and home prices abroad can affect our market here quickly. We can monitor on a week to week or even day to day basis.

The bottom line is, if you’re only marketing to local buyers you’re missing out on a large portion of the market. In addition to 21% of the volume from international buyers we sell many homes to US citizens from other states.

Over the past year Illinois lead the way in property searches on LeeCountyOnline.com followed by New York and Michigan. It’s no wonder we’re working with so many buyers from IL right now. The Ellis team is working with buyers from all 10 of these states. They are searching for property in Southwest Florida and we are helping them purchase it.

Thinking of Selling?

If you’re thinking about selling your SW Florida property, it pays to work with a Realtor that markets across the US and internationally. Have them show you how many buyers they’re generating and from where. If they can’t show you, they either aren’t marketing there or don’t focus on it.

The Ellis Team will be glad to sit down with you and see how we can help you get top dollar for your home. Call 239-489-4042 and ask for Sande or Brett. Or feel free to search our SW Florida MLS Search Site The rest of the world does. You might as well too.

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

Open Sat 1-3 PM

Daniel’s Park

Ellis Team Featured Homes of the Week

Reflection Lakes New Listing

Gulf Harbour Condo

Paramount at the Shores

4 Bed 5 Bath Condo overlooking River, marina, and golf course

Preliminary April Numbers

Why Studying the Market Matters

Predictions

X-Factor

Free Shred Event Saturday April 29th 10 AM- 12-PM

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Inflation May Help Home Buyers

Risky Strategy

Smart Money on Real Estate

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

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Like this:

2018 Local Home Sales Still at Recent Record Pace

Pressure

Other Shift

Agents Must Keep Up With Technology

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

Open House Sunday 1-3 PM

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Like this:

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

Open Saturday 1-3 PM

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Like this:

Florida International Real Estate Sales Rise

Ellis Team markets to Foreign Buyers

Thinking of Selling?

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

Daniel’s Park

Ellis Team Featured Homes of the Week

Reflection Lakes New Listing

Gulf Harbour Condo

Paramount at the Shores

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