The SW Florida real estate market again shows some positive signs, as median single family home prices in Fort Myers / Cape Coral area increased 5.67% in April over March.  March posted 4.65% increase, which means median prices have increased about 10% since February 2007.  Median prices are definitely on the rise, as illustrated by our SW Florida Real Estate Month Over Month Graph.

Sellers should be careful not to over react to this positive news, as it is only one indicator.  The entire breath and scope of the market isn’t moving upward, simply the median price.  We knew the median  price would be the first to stabilize.  Median price is simply a measure of half the homes selling for more than a certain number and half selling for less than a certain number.  Many homes are selling, but only the best priced homes are selling, and homes priced above the market will sit on the market.  Median price is just one indicator.

Another indicator is how many homes are selling.  Home sales fell from March levels, which is typically the case until the market heats back up again in the summer.  Our SW Florida Real Estate Homes Closed Graph illustrates this point. Single family home sales were down 37% from last years levels, and down almost 10% from March 2007 levels.

As you can see from our SW Florida Real Estate Sale Prices 2005-2007 graph, sale prices have caught last years levels.  This is important, because the media will now start reporting prices are edging higher.  The more accurate indication is month over month changes which have been rising 5 out of the last 6 months, but that was lost in the reporting because sale prices were down against last year, which seems to be the media industry standard.  Now that we’ve broke out of that mold, which we predicted would happen sometime mid-year 2007, the media will start reporting prices are up, even though they’ve been going up for months.

The overall direction of the market is encouraging, but all the stars are not in alignment yet.  What we’d like to see is inventory levels  decreasing more than it is, sales increasing over last years levels, and prices stabilizing across all market segments.  This hasn’t happened yet, but it will in time.  The market is cleansing itself.  We expect a gradual improvement in numbers throughout the balance of 2007 overall, even though some segments will continue to struggle into next year.  Particularly hard hit will be new subdivisions where investors still make-up a majority of the homeowners.  We need end users to stabilize this market, and that is occurring as pricing has come down significantly.

Condo sale prices were down 24% in the Greater Fort Myers Cape Coral area from $322,500 last April 2006 to $244,100 April 2007, and the number of sales were down 14%, from 259 last April 2006 to 223 April 2007. Condo sales were actually up slightly from March levels, 223 in April 2007 Vs. 221 in March, and prices were down from $250,800 in March 2007 to $244,100, a 2.67% decrease.

Statewide, single family home sales were down 26% and median prices were down 3%, so Fort Myers and Cape Coral did better than the state average in price and worse in sales. Statewide, condo sales were down 19% and median condo sale prices were up 3%, Fort Myers Cape Coral did better than the average for numbers of sales and worse than average in median sales prices.

You can see how Fort Myers and Cape Coral single family home sales did this year Vs. last year and compared to the entore state.  Also view Condo sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral report.

Suffice it to say the Ellis Team goes on it’s fair share of listings appointments in SW Florida, and we are in tune with what’s on the minds of home sellers.

Some sellers are logically tuned in to what’s going on in the SW Florida real estate market, some are in shock and awe, especially the ones who bought in 2005, some are happy and accept it is what it is, and some are downright fearful as they are in danger of losing their property.

While the Ellis Team goes on many listing appointments, we only take a small percentage of listings.  We only list properties when we feel we can help the seller.  In order for us to do that, the seller must price the property in-line with today’s market conditions, and must be willing to accept out expertise and advice.

Some sellers decide they’re going to sell for a certain price because that’s what they "Need" out of the property, or that’s what it’s "Worth" and somebody should just pay it.  When confronted with the facts, we’ve even heard some sellers say, "OK, it may not be worth that, but that’s what I want, and can’t you just find someone from up North who doesn’t know any better to pay it?" We explain that we actually have to sell a home three times in order to have a successful sale, so we better price it right upfront.

1. It better be priced correctly in MLS, or other agents won’t even show the property as they have a choice of thousands of properties to choose from when showing their customers, and they usually picked the Best values.  If your home isn’t priced right, it won’t get shown by other agents.
2. The buyer is the one who is out there looking at maybe 20 properties before making a decision to buy.  Your home or condo is in competition with all the other thousands of properties on the market right now, so it better be priced in-line with other comparable properties, or the buyer will just buy something else.
3. Lastly, even if we’re successful getting agents to show the property, and the buyer to accept that your property is the "Best" value available, the bank will still require an appraisal.  Banks are skeptical not lend more money than the property is worth.  Foreclosures are rising, and banks know that property values have declined since 2005.  Banks lending money will require an appraisal, and sometimes two before they lend in today’s market.  Your home must be in-line with Sold data, not just what other active sellers are "Asking" for their property.

This brings me back to Sellers "must be willing to accept out expertise and advice."  If the seller is willing to price the property correctly, they must also be willing to allow us to do our job and sell the property for them.  Sometimes sellers get in their own way by listening to other so-called experts about how to sell a property.  Perhaps a neighbor gave them advice on something that worked for them in the past or a friend or relative tells them something they should do.  Some ideas are good, and should be part of a pro-active marketing campaign to sell your home.  Other ideas are not proven or time tested, and frankly some are just off the wall and do not work.

It takes two things to sell a home in today’s market.  Aggressive Marketing and Aggressive Pricing.  One without the other isn’t good enough.  Ultimately the seller controls the price, while the Market determines the Value.  When price meets value, the property has a chance to sell, if buyers are aware of the property.  This is where aggressive marketing comes in, and this is what a good Realtor brings to the table.

Lastly, sellers control the marketing by the agent they select to market the property.  Sellers should be careful not to micro-manage the marketing as the seller is usually emotionally attached to the outcome, and the least prepared to know what actually works in selling a home.  This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t ask questions of your agent.  It pays to ask these Most Important questions upfront in the listing interview.  Hiring the right agent the first time will save you much time, effort, money, and worry.  Hire the best agent, and then listen to their advice.

Soon we’ll have a follow-up article on pricing.

Showing activity slowed down slightly in the Fort Myers Cape Coral real estate marketfrom March’s pace, as you can see from these historical charts.  In a few days we’ll post updated pending sales activity to see if the showing that did occur were from serious buyers or lookers.

We have noticed a sense of urgency from buyers lately, especially in the single family homes market as they are feeling some degree of confidence and looking to buy close to the statistical bottom, which may have already occurred.

April 2007 Statistics:

March 2007 Statistics:

February 2007 Statistics:

January 2007 Statistics:

Frank Mann, Lee County Commissioner, will be this weeks guest on "The Future of Real Estate". 

We plan to ask Frank about several issues including:

• Recent News Press Articles
• Property Tax Reform
• Truth in Millage
• Save our Homes Ammendment
• Growth in Lee County
• Property Tax Portability
• Taxation effects on Fire, Police, Education, and Transportation

Frank served 12 years in in Tallahassee, 8 years as a congressman in the house and 4 years in the senate.  Frank also served 2 years previously on the Lee County Commission when he was appointed to replace Vikki Lopez-Wolfe when she was replaced by the governor.  Frank also served 2 years as a Director for Southwest Florida Water Management Disctrict, so Frank does indeed have a tremendous anount of insight into SW Florida issues.

We plan to also ask Frank about the State government’s attempt to solve complex issues in quick time with simple solutions, and get his opinions about that.