This is the question most often asked, by both buyers and sellers.  The truth is nobody knows for sure, but the market usually leaves clues.  Sometimes the market leaves strong clues a kindergartner can figure out, and sometimes they’re more obscure only a tea leaf reader might understand. 

So what clues is the market leaving right now?  Median single family home sale prices are up about 10% over last year in June.  July numbers haven’t been released yet.  Prices are down .31% over last month, so we’ll call that about even.  Home sales are down 12% over last year, but home sales are up 2.81% over last month. 

SW Florida Real Estate Sale Prices
SW Florida Median Sale Prices 2009-2010

As you can see by the attached chart, last year home prices rose steadily in 2nd half of the year, perhaps due to the home buyer tax credit, low interest rates, and bargain buys in the SW Florida market. 

Prices continued to rise this year right up until the home buyer tax credit ran out.  Is this coincidence?  We don’t know.  Some speculate it is due to the expiration of the tax credit, others speculate it could be effects from the oil spill, while still others wonder if it’s not the economy and the job situation.  Perhaps it’s all three, or perhaps its simple supply and demand at equilibrium in this new economy. 

Banks have slowed down bringing bargain homes to the market, and we’ve long wondered what will happen to our market when the bargains are gone.  Because we don’t have sustained employment opportunities, it seems almost impossible for prices to shoot up drastically once the distressed sales are gone. 

The distressed sales are not gone; it’s just that foreclosure listings have slowed recently.  We’re hearing that FNMA has more properties coming to the market soon, and we have seen a slight jump in pre-listed foreclosures we’re working right now.  We’ve also seen a slight increase in short sale transactions, although not enough to make a dent. 

HAFA, the government program designed to make short sales easier to sail through with the banks has been a huge flop.  It’s almost to the point the government should stop trying, because they’re making things worse.  Last year the government intervened and tried to instill loan modifications and workouts, but it was a flawed theory and failed miserably.  Because of this, we said 2010 was the year of the transaction either a short sale or a foreclosure.  Short sales have not worked like intended.  It was a voluntary program and had no teeth or real chance.  It was just an arbitrary deadline designed to make the politicians look good, but now they just look bad. 

Right or wrong, this all leads up to more eventual foreclosures.  We believe more are coming, and they take time to work through the process.  The Lee County Clerk’s office has been working down the backlog of files lis pendens, and this is a good sign.  Unfortunately, there are more to come.  The stimulus has not worked, nor has the governments plan to revive housing.  It’s time for a new plan, a plan that can actually work.

 We invite local, state, and federal officials to sit down with those on the street and think about the big picture.  Theory should align with reality, and implementation should be realistic, and have teeth.  Otherwise politicians are kicking the can down the road, prolonging the housing crisis, and adversely affecting the economy.  Housing is 32% of GDP, so it makes sense to work on a comprehensive solution that helps both, not one that sounds good for votes but does nothing. 

Where is our market headed?  We’ve identified some clues, and maybe there are others.  You can read the tea leaves and decide for yourself which elements will win out.  We can say we have record low rates, below replacement cost prices, and affordability is at an all-time high.  So if a buyer has a job, has good credit, and wants to buy, now is a good time.  I just want to get more people good jobs so more people can take advantage of this market.

Watch this week’s The Future of SW Florida Real Estate Video Show August 13, 2010

It’s been a little while since we released the official SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index.  This index accurately predicts the near term forward direction of the local real estate market by analyzing current market activity against inventory levels and assigning a value.  A lower index level indicates a hotter the market, and a higher number indicates a cooling market. 

Current Market Index-Southwest Florida Real Estate
Ellis Team SW Florida Current Market Index

As you can see, the forward indicator heated up in February and we witnessed strong sales since that time.  We have noticed a slight cooling trend since May.  As we write this article official numbers haven’t been released yet, but we have spoken with several agents and loan officers who have also indicated a cooling trend since May. 

At 4.94 the index still boasts very strong numbers; however the trend has been rising lately so we’ll want to keep an eye on it.  One reason the market has cooled a bit is because bargain based foreclosure property inventory levels have fallen off which has cooled buying demand.  SW Florida has been a price sensitive market and buyers are off the fence and buying because they perceive real bargains.  The looming question has always been what will buyers do when the real bargains begin to dry up? 

We have heard reports that banks will be unloading more foreclosures to the market soon, and already we are seeing that.  Banks are not filing new foreclosures at the pace they once were, so we wondered how this could be true.  The answer may be that the banks have not released the entire inventory they foreclosed upon in the past few years. 

To give an example, we just pre-listed a bank foreclosure we’ll be bringing to the market soon.  From the time an agent receives a pre-listing it can take 1-6 weeks or so before property is ready to bring to market.  Several reports, valuations, and decisions must be made, and in some instances repairs, water hookups, etc before the property is ready for market. 

This particular property had suffered some fire damage.  The bank of course wanted a fire report from the fire department once they learned this new fact.  Keep in mind, the banks don’t know what they’ve got on their hands until the appraisal and agent reports inform them.  We obtained the fire report and determined the fire occurred back in 2007.  It’s obvious the borrower has not lived in the property since 2007, and presumably hasn’t made a payment on a damaged property they weren’t living in. 

So the question is, if the buyer wasn’t making payments, why did it take from 2007 until now for the bank to foreclose and/or bring the property to market.  The bank is just now discovering there was a fire over 3 yrs ago in the property.  

The answer is either the banks have held back inventory, or have just been too busy working their backlog.  So just because foreclosure filings have been down in the past year doesn’t mean there couldn’t be more ready to hit the market.

In addition to the banks we’re dealing with, we’ve also been working on FNMA listings.  We’ve been told by various sources to get ready for an influx of FNMA properties as well, and already we’ve been assigned several pre-listings. 

Banks have been more diligent on short sales, but they’re still not quick enough.  Short sale closings have been rising, but they’re still a drop in the bucket compared to the struggling homeowners out there. 

With short sale closings rising, and the possibility of more bargains hitting the market, we could see the index drop again, but for now it is rising and we’ll want to monitor.  Nationwide sales have slowed, so it’s not just a SW Florida trend.  We’ll be watching sales volume and pricing trends closely in the coming weeks and update you.

Tune in to The Future of Real Estate Video Show.

Here’s an update to our SW Florida Real Estate Video Channel.  The Top Agent channel has received 1,661 channel views and the videos have received 29,940 views.  We have videos posted other places, so this is just the videos contained inside this channel.

Here is an Index of some of our recent videos:

Realtors Clean up Neighborhoods WINK News 5-17-10 5PM

Cap and Trade E-Mail Hoax Fox 4 News 5-3-10 10 PM

Brett Ellis on NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams  January 11, 2009

Brett Ellis on NBC Today Show  October 1, 2008

Innovative Sales Techniques  August 25, 2008

Pricing Your Home to Sell – Future of Real Estate

Featured Hot Listings – Future of Real Estate SW Florida  June 4, 2010

Hot Listings-Future of Real Estate SW Florida  May 23, 2010

Future of Real Estate Hot Properties for Sale  May 10, 2010

Home Prices on the Rise – Effects of the Oil Spill

The Future of Real Estate – Hot Properties of the Week  May 4, 2010

The Future of Real Estate – -Home prices going up in SW Florida May 4, 2010

Featured Properties of the Week-April 19, 2010

Short Sale vs. Foreclosure

Future of Real Estate-Government Shortens Short Sale Time

Future of real Estate-Flood Insurance Program Expired   April 1, 2010

FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE 3-19-10 Michigan, Florida a Market Comparison

The Future of Real Estate 03-13-10 Hot Properties

The Future of Real Estate Market Trends   March 15, 2010

Future of Real Estate March 04 10

Short Sales and Bank Foreclosures REO   March 6, 2010

Future of Real Estate 3-04-10 Hot Properties

State of the Market Report SW Florida Seg 1 Feb 2010

State of the Market Report SW Florida Seg 2 Feb 2010

Future of Real Estate State of the Market Report Fort Myers Beach, Lehigh Acres, Feb 2010

Future of Real Estate State of the Market Report Fort Myers, Estero, Bonita Springs Feb 2010

Future of Real Estate State of the Market Report Cape Coral Feb 2010

Future of Real Estate Show 2-9-10 Inside the Numbers

Future of Real Estate 2-9-10 Seg 2 Interest Rates-Featured Properties

Lee County Property Appraiser Ken Wilkinson Segment A  Feb 1, 2010

Lee County Property Appraiser Ken Wilkinson Segment B   Feb 1, 2010

Lee County Property Appraiser Ken Wilkinson Segment C   Feb 1, 2010

Sean Ellis Condo Association Law pt 1

Ellis Team Sean Ellis Condo Assn Law Pt 2

Ellis Team and Lee County Florida Home Down Payment Assistance program

Lee County Florida Selling Foreclosed Houses

2010 New Years Predictions

Chinese Drywall- Future of Real Estate Seg 1

Chinese Drywall Future of Real Estate Seg 2

Chinese Drywall – Future of Real Estate-Seg 3

Future of Real Estate Ellis Team -Social Media

Insiders Guide to a Successful Short Sale Part 1 12-5-09 Future of Real Estate TV-Radio Show

Insiders Guide to a Successful Short Sale Part 2 12-5-09 Future of Real Estate Show

WINK News 5 13 09 10PM-Local Housing Rebound?

WINK News 2 18 09 10PM – State of the Market Report

WINK News 2 18 09 11PM  Home Prices Where They Were a Decade Ago

State of the Market Report

Changing Mortgage Rules SW Florida 8-1-08

SW Florida Real Estate Housing Numbers  This was the Beginning of Increased Sales Which Led to Record Sales

Ok, we have many more videos but you get the picture.  Subscribe to our SW Florida Real Estate channel and browse away.

It’s been 8 weeks since we last reported on short sales, and we’re happy to report short sale activity is up as we’d hoped it would be.  Short sales make much more sense to all involved over a foreclosure as it helps preserve the sellers credit better, minimizes losses to the lender, and keeps the neighborhood in better condition. 

I recently heard a funny quote “Why do they call it a short sale if it takes so long?”  While I can’t remember who said it, it’s funny because it’s so sad.  Hopefully with new initiatives in place we’ll see quicker turn-around times for short sales.  As a CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) we thought we’d share a few tips to help agents navigate this short sale process and make your deals quicker and smoother. 

SW Florida Real Estate Foreclosures Vs. Short Sales Graph
Foreclosures Vs. Short Sales in SW Florida Real Estate

There is a clause in the Short Sale Addendum to Purchase and Sale Contract entitled #5; Multiple Offers which reads “Unless otherwise agreed by Buyer and Seller in writing, Seller may continue to market the Property for sale and accept other offers and submit those accepted offers to the lender.”  We are not attorneys and we are not giving legal advice.  This clause seems suspect though and we encourage listing and selling agents to amend or supersede this clause. 

A purchase and sale contract is between one buyer and one seller, and once accepted you can request the lender to take less than what is owed via a short sale.  In a normal transaction a seller wouldn’t enter into multiple contracts with multiple buyers, so why would you muddy the waters and try that on a short sale?  Selling the property to multiple people just seems unethical and one buyer may have legal remedies against a seller for employing such a tactic.  

Quite often we see sellers accepting any offer that comes down the road, but the lender certainly would not agree to the short sale because it is so far below market value. The lender wants to minimize their loss, and only agree to short sales if it makes sense.  Sellers would be far better off negotiating or waiting for a reasonable offer than to accept any old offer.  

When you submit multiple contracts to a lender they mistakenly think it must be a hot property and hold out for more, and many times each new offer starts the process all over again, further delaying approvals.  And keep in mind when you submit more than one contract, the seller may be legally liable to more than one buyer. 

You don’t submit offers to the lender, only accepted contracts.  A seller should really only enter into one accepted contract.  A lender cannot do anything without an accepted contract between buyer and seller as the lender is not a party to the transaction and can’t sell to anybody.  This could change if they foreclose, but until then they are just the lender. 

If you’re a buyer the last thing you want is the seller sending in other accepted contracts.  It would be far better to move on and go buy another home and not waste any time waiting or investing in inspections, etc.  As a seller, it should also be the last thing you want as well as it can hold-up or kill your sale.  From a practical standpoint we don’t even know why this clause is in the addendum, or why agents or sellers would employ this tactic. 

The other advice we would give is to have the sellers completely fill out a financial questionnaire upfront before taking the listing.  There is no sense wasting buyers and sellers time if the seller isn’t going to qualify for hardship with their lender.  You’ll need all this information with the accepted contract anyway, so it’s best to do it upfront and save everybody time.  Not only will this speed up your short sale, but it will also help you skip doing deals that should never be attempted in the first place.  Buyers are skittish enough on short sales anyway, so why attempt one if it has no shot at success?  We’ll bring you more tips on short sales in upcoming articles.  By educating the market on what works and what doesn’t, everybody wins.  Good luck buying and selling.  We’re all in this market together, for better or worse, and it pays to work together for success.

Last week we reported showings and phone calls were down for a few weeks after Easter according to several agents we spoke with, but that all changed about a day after writing the story.  Phone calls and offers picked up significantly last weekend, so it’s very hard to judge the market on a daily basis.                   

This week we decided to step back and analyze April 2010 vs March 2010.  Official numbers won’t be released until next week, however we believe we’ll see a year over year increase in home sales about 9-10%, and we believe prices will up again over last year as well. 

SW Florida Real Estate Home Sales Lee County Florida
Single Family Home Sales in SW Florida March-April 2010

We’ve created a graph illustrating sales numbers for March-April of 2010.  Sales for single family homes increased ever so slightly over March.  We then wanted to know the mix of foreclosed homes and short sales.  Foreclosure sales actually fell 10.43%, while short sales rose 12.96%.  This coincides with our predictions back in March that we may see a rise in short sales as bank gear up to handle more short sales. 

Foreclosure filings have been down, so 6 to 12 months in the future it’s reasonable to assume there may be less foreclosure properties for sale, especially if banks continue to increase their short sale efforts. 

Our numbers are close to but not identical to official numbers that will be released next week for one reason.  We use data from multiple MLS’, but there is the potential for some listing overlap if a property is listed in more than one MLS.  Statistically that runs about 5% give or take.  We’d rather have a little overlap than miss a lot of listings and sales. 

Condo sales were up in April over March, and that would be expected as condo sales tend to build throughout the season and culminate in April.  Condo sales are increasingly difficult to finance with new regulations on approving not only the borrower, but also the association itself.  Many March closings were pushed back to April, and we suspect many April closings may get pushed back to May, so May could be a good month due to high sales and delayed closings, both in the condo and single family markets. 

Headlines next week should read home sales up somewhere around 10% +/- depending on what the official figures are, and home prices up as well.  Last year’s April median home price dipped to $85,500.  March 2010 median figures shot up to $95,100 up from $88,000, so even if prices hold steady from March we should be reading about price increases. 

Next weekend is Memorial Day weekend, so sales activity will drop-off as people plan their time off.  It will be interesting to note people’s perceptions of Florida and their willingness to book vacations here in advance due to the oil crisis in the Gulf.  Many visitors come back in the summer and buy.  Additionally, the Euro is now worth less, so it will be interesting to see if that affects foreign visitors this summer with less buying power.  Hopefully once we sort out the Gulf oil spill, our Chambers of Commerce will promote the area as a great place to visit.  We count on many of these visitors to buy property in Florida each year, so we do want them to visit and spend money in Florida and help our economy. 

In the meantime, let’s enjoy some positive publicity next week.  Our market is due for positive news, and it helps buyers to understand that prices are rising and inventory is shrinking little by little, and the time is now to step up if they want in on today’s bargains.

We’ve been talking quite a bit the past several weeks about HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) program and other programs designed to make selling a short sale easier.  Going forward, these programs should provide some much needed relief for many sellers, and open up the market for more buyers.

We’ve noticed a trend this past year developing in the Lee County SW Florida real estate market.  As we’ve reported, sales numbers hit record levels in 2009, and prices look like they may have stabilized.  We’ve noticed that total distressed sales are down significantly since last May.  Our definition of a distressed sale in either a bank foreclosure where the banks sells the property on the open market after they’ve foreclosed, or a short sale by a seller hoping to avoid foreclosure and protect their credit.

Short Sales and Foreclosure Sales in SW Florida
Distressed Sales in SW Florida

Fort Myers is showing the most strength with only 47.83% of sales being distressed in March 2010.  Compare that to Cape Coral at 62.0% and Lehigh Acres at 74.19% Lehigh Acres is down from the whopping 88.5% set last June, even though they have leveled off about 75% the past 4 months.

Cape Coral has also declined, down from 78% last May to 62% now.  This chart explains why prices have stabilized in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, and why Lehigh Acres is a little shakier at the moment.

Inventory levels are down in all three segments, and sales are up significantly over February in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, and up moderately in Lehigh Acres.  Officially sales numbers have not been released at the time this article was written, and we believe going forward we’ll see some median price increases in Lee County, and especially in Fort Myers and Cape Coral.

We’re studying preliminary numbers, and we’re seeing an approximate 28% jump in sales over February numbers for single family homes.  There was an increase in distressed sales, but the majority of the increase was regular non-distressed sales, and this is encouraging going forward in 2010.

We’ll be keeping our eye on the market after the home buyer tax credits expire on sales after April 30, and on interest rates which are creeping higher.  Nationally consumer confidence is rising, and eventually that should trickle into job growth.  SW Florida has been hit hard with high unemployment, and we really want to study these numbers as ultimately employment will be the engine that fuels SW Florida real estate prices in the future.

Always consult a CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert).

It’s a fact that 7 out of 10 distressed home sellers go into foreclosure without visible intervention to improve their situation.  We speculate that sellers do not realize there is help available, and that doing something about their situation is better than just walking away.

Many sellers we talk to are embarrassed about their situation, while others are simply depressed and don’t wish to speak about it, hoping their financial situation will improve in time to change things.  The sad reality is once a homeowner falls behind; it’s very difficult to ever catch back up, even if their job situation improves.

We’ve been reporting about the new government HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) program announced on April 5 designed to improve short sales.  We’ve also told you that 2010 will be the year of the Transaction, either a short sale or foreclosure as loan modifications have not worked (use a personal loan calculator to work that out for yourself.

This past week we’ve met several large banks who have all committed to diligently approving short sales in a quick fashion.  Many agents and buyers have been reluctant to offer on Short Sales because the truth was they were really Long Sales.  This has changed and may now be a viable alternative for sellers and buyers alike.  If your loan is with Bank of America, Wachovia, or Wells Fargo, it may now be possible to streamline your short sale.  Other banks are following suit depending on who the end investor is on each loan.

We’ve provided a chart for sellers to illustrate the financial advantages of considering a short sale VS.  foreclosure.  Some of the details may affect you well into the future.  You may wish to discuss this with your attorney as well, especially if you’re considering bankruptcy.

Short Sale Vs Foreclosure Benefit Chart
Why a Short Sale May be better Financially Than a Foreclsoure

The good news is the short sale process has just improved dramatically, and while still very complicated, can provide relief for struggling homeowners and help them restore their credit so they can move on with their lives much sooner.  This economy will improve one day, and it will be nice when current distressed homeowners can look back and not be held down by circumstances of the past.  The short sale is one such tool to accomplish this.

This past week we sat in on a meeting with the founder of RE/MAX, Laurie Magiano with the US Department of Treasury, Matt Vernon who heads the Bank of America Foreclosure and short sale department, and the president of Equator, the online transaction management platform for 7 of the 10 largest banks for foreclosures and short sales. The topic was HAFA, the government’s new initiative which stands for Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program. 

Fort Myers Cape Coral Florida REO foreclosures short sales graph
SW Florida Foreclosure Versus Short Sale Graph

The government’s new plan is voluntary for lenders, and it does not include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owned or guaranteed mortgages as they are working on their own solutions to assisting and speeding up the process.  The government’s new plan allows for homeowners to receive $3,000 for moving expenses if the seller agrees to a short sale or deed in lieu of foreclosure.  A short sale or deed in lieu of foreclosure is better on the sellers credit than a full blown foreclosure and will allow the seller to purchase a home much sooner than a foreclosure. 

The plan also stipulates that the seller will not receive a deficiency judgment, so the seller won’t be bogged down with debt payments in the future resulting from the sale of the property.  This is big as it’s been a stumbling block for many sellers in accepting a short sale.  The seller’s housing expense ratio should exceed 31% or lender will believe seller can afford payment, and lenders will be particularly mindful of strategic defaults where seller has money saved but chooses to walk away anyway, especially on the higher loans. 

The new regulations, if the lenders agree, stipulates that the 2nd mortgage holder will receive 6 cents on the dollar, which is far more than a foreclosure where they won’t receive anything, and much more than the 2-3 cents banks sell debt for on open market.  The 2nd lien holders have held up many short sales, and now that the government has set guidelines, it should make it easier having a roadmap to negotiations. 

The new guidelines also call for lenders to make decisions within 10 business days as to the viability of doing a short sale, and banks such as Bank of America are committing resources so that agents will now receive communications within 2 days, so the days of asking questions and not hearing anything for weeks or months may be over.  Bank of America has put systems in place whereby an agent can contact a negotiator’s supervisor if the agent has not heard a response within 2 days, and the Treasury department has given us an e-mail address to escalate all inquiries no matter who the lender is so they can step in and help. 

Everyone in the room agreed that short sale transactions could one day outnumber foreclosures, and that would be a good thing as sellers credit is better preserved, and lenders generally lose less money on a short sale versus a bank foreclosure, and 2nd lien holders get paid something.  The property tends to remain maintained and require less fix up than an abandoned or vandalized property, which further upholds values in the neighborhood. 

There is one other advantage few people think about to a quick process.  Many short sales are priced too low and will never sell, but they subliminally drive values down in the market as some view the unsalable short sales as the new market value when in fact they’re artificial and won’t be approved.  By speeding up the process, or issuing pre-approved pricing, this should help alleviate this phenomenon and improve the market almost immediately. 

Stay tuned as these are lofty ideals, and we’ll report back on how well they actually work.  Of course, this will depend on how many of the lenders and investors participate in the voluntary program.  See our Future of Real Estate Show discussing new HAFA program on short sales.

This is the age old question everyone asks.  How is the market doing?  Have we bottomed?  When will prices go back up?  When will my home be worth what I owe?  How long until we get back to 2005 prices?  Should I sell or rent? 

Actually we get more questions than this, like should I pay my mortgage, should I pay my homeowners association fees, etc.  We’ll stick with the value questions for this article. 

We’ve included a graph illustrating median prices since 2008.  Median prices don’t tell the whole story, but they do tell a story.  The definition of median price is half the sales are over and half under a certain price.  As you can see, prices have fallen sharply since January 2008, and even more dating back to 2005.  Ironically, home sales are up and setting records precisely because home prices have fallen.  We’ve explained this in depth in past articles. 

Lee County florida Single Family Median Home Sale Prices
SW Florida Real Estate Prices Graph

Average sales prices were approximately $365,000 back in January 2008 vs the median price of $225,000.  We have been watching how the average and median price are related, and we have a chart in our annual State of the Market Report on Pg 4 that shows the relation over time between the two.  This report can be found at www.Topagent.com 

The average price gives us a little more depth to the market and helps us understand the overall breath of the market.  As we’ve been saying for quite some time, we expect higher priced foreclosures and short sales to actually pull the median price up, and we believe this will occur.  This past week official numbers were released, both statewide and nationwide.  Prices actually fell 3.3% vs. last month, and were down 9.74% from last year. 

Some might ask if we do all this research, when will our predictions come true.  Our best estimates have been we could see year over year price increases as soon as March or April data.  March data won’t be released until next month, but keep in mind these are only predictions about the future and nobody knows for certain.  We are fairly confident this will occur; the question is more of when. 

We have been looking at both median and mean average sales price data and it appears that prices for both dropped since December 2009 as official data would indicate, however were are seeing some price increases in March data that would indicate this trend has reversed, at least temporarily.  Keep in mind we have many more closings that occur at the end of a month that could skew the data, but the trend looks good. 

We would also expect sales this time of year to be higher as our Northern visitors are here and buying property as well, and many of these sales are in the higher than median price range.  Many of these sales will occur past March into April and May, and many will come back and buy in the summer. 

Ultimately prices will be determined by jobs and the economy.  As more people get back to work, it should slow the foreclosures, and bring more people to the area.  When will this occur?  I think it’s so much easier to forecast prices in the short term than predict the overall economy.  Congress has been focused on health care and the climate more than the economy, so it’s really hard to predict what’s coming out of Washington and how it will affect us and the economy, especially since we’ve largely been kept in the dark until something passes. 

We would encourage our government to turn its attention to actually helping the economy, or get out of the way so small business can begin creating jobs and getting us back on our feet.  Once the economy starts looking up, Main Street can begin to recover and prices can begin to rise.  Our prices are artificially low, and they won’t stay that way forever.  Prices are well below replacement cost, so builders are on the sidelines now as they don’t wish to build at a loss.  Our market will increase in value perhaps 40-50% before this occurs, and this is why buyers today have a chance at building substantial equity quickly. 

Once the dust settles and our market reaches price equilibrium, builders will be building again, bringing more jobs to the area and sustainable price appreciation.  Good times await those who buy now and ride the coaster on up to equilibrium.

Be sure to check our latest video on the Flood Insurance Crisis affecting home sales.

Search all SW Florida Single Family Home Bank Foreclosures

This is the time of year agents are busy selling properties.  If you look at the last two years, historically you will see that sales begin to build each month heading into summer.  The last two years are fairly typical as to how our local market works.  April and May closed sales are results of deals put together in March.  There is typically about a one month lag from contract to closing.  Some closings occur in the same month, and some take longer, especially short sales. 

We think everyone who possibly can buy is attempting to right now for several reasons.  Interest rates are headed higher.  The Treasury Department’s phase-out of buying mortgage backed securities on FNMA and Freddie Mac expires this month.  The last time this happened rates shot up about ¾% in a week or so, so we’re keeping our eye on rates in April and what if anything the government does when they shoot back up. 

We also have the Home Buyer tax credit in place for sales through April 30.  Buyers have a few months after that to actually close these sales, but essentially it allows first time home buyers a credit of up to $8,000 and repeat home buyers a credit up to $6,500.  This is real money, and buyers are acting to receive this money. 

Single Family Home Sales by Month Lee County Florida
Single Family Home Sales by Month Lee County Florida

Additionally, inventory in certain price ranges is drying up, and prices are low.  Buyers from near and far and reaching to scoop up these bargains.  Because these homes are so far below replacement cost, these prices won’t last once the economy improves and builders start building again.  Many of these homes are 40-50% below cost, so there’s a built-in profit for buyers willing to buy now and hold until market improves. 

We know why the market is Hot, but let’s go behind the scenes and explain some things that are affecting the market many people might not know about.   The first major obstacle is appraisals.  Appraisals have been coming up short up to 30% of the time as appraisers not familiar with the neighborhoods are using comparables that are not the best for the subject property.  They are not taking the time to discern if the two neighborhoods are similar, or if the comparables condition is similar.  We’ve seen appraisers use comparables from other neighborhoods that just don’t measure up while ignoring a good comp 2 doors down that closed last week.  We’ve also seen appraisers only use the foreclosures, but they don’t tell the whole picture.  The foreclosures can need lots of work and be in poor condition, and if the appraiser wants to use them as a comp, they need to research its actual condition when property sold. 

The next big issue is we often have multiple offers on each property, and buyers are bidding against each other.  Cash is king, and buyers wishing to finance have a hard time competing with cash buyers.  The seller doesn’t have to worry whether the buyer will get financing when a cash buyer is involved, nor worry about a bad appraisal.  Many of these properties are selling well over asking price, and many buyers are frustrated no matter what they do they can’t land a property.

We also have out of town buyers who believe they can bargain down these homes, and wonder why they lose home after home when the sellers accept someone else’s offer.  Many buyers have said they don’t pay full sticker price, and yet they’re downright frustrated when the seller accepts another buyer’s offer.  Agents I speak with say they are educating buyers right upfront about our market, but buyers often times have to try for themselves.  A buyer can find out the hard way and miss out on their first 6 choices or take their agent’s advice and have a chance at getting choices 1-3.  Even if you offer $10,000 over asking price all cash, there’s no guarantee you’ll get the home, but at least your chances are better.  It pays to study each submarket and determine how each home fits in that puzzle. 

Lastly, title can be an issue.  If you’re buying a foreclosed home, it’s not uncommon for a title issue to creep up and extend the closing out.  Banks don’t always complete the full title process until a contract is secured, and that’s when it could be discovered some outstanding liens, or homeowner associations trying to collect more than the law allows to issue an estoppel letter.  We’ve even experienced a home that needed to be re-foreclosed as it wasn’t done properly the first time. 

If our market wasn’t so challenging, we’d see even higher sales reported.  This market is more complex than ever, but at least it keeps people on their toes and moving.  That’s often little solace to those caught up in a deal when things are going wrong, but I guess it beats having a dead market.  There’s nothing dead about the SW Florida real estate market.