May home prices increased 1.3% over last year. Isn’t it nice to read that home prices increased for a change versus declining?

For regular readers, this change shouldn’t be a surprise. For months we’ve been telling readers about changes we are seeing in the Southwest Florida real estate market. These changes should lead to a balanced market and eventual price increases if conditions continue.

Market Indexes

The indicators that have been predicting the market balance are the Ellis Team Current Market Index and the Market Spread Index. The latest reading of the Current Market Index came in at 3.54 this week. The Southwest Florida real estate market lost another 51 units this week as pending sales remain strong. It’s no wonder closed home sales were up 2.5% over last year. We are still looking at the third best year on record for single family home sales, and most agents don’t realize it.

The Ellis Team Market Spread Index was at 4,892 last week and we expect it to shrink further to around 4,865 when new numbers come out this week. As we have been reporting, if that index gets down to around 4,800, we should see pricing balance out. When the CMI gets close to 3.0 and the MSI gets around 4,800, we could see prices rise. We are not far off those numbers, and that’s why we’re not surprised prices rose over last year.

May Home Prices Increased

One month does not make a trend, however it is a start. Next month we might see another gain, or we could slip backwards. Much of what happens from here on out is a function of economic conditions. Will we maintain positive momentum? Gas prices are coming down, so what will that do for consumer confidence, spending money, and inflation in upcoming months?

I saw a report that showed people moving from California to Florida are speeding up. Many of these buyers are moving from Silicon Valley to Miami and Fort Lauderdale, but some could move to the west coast. As the east coast becomes unaffordable, we could continue to see buyers come over from the east coast of Florida. Housing is all about affordability, and we could sure use some good news in the interest rate, insurance, and property taxes departments.

Interest Rates

Predicting interest rates is difficult. Essentially, we need to wait and see when inflation comes down. In the meantime, rates could go up or down. The good news is the bond market has been reacting favorably to the Iran situation. Property taxes may decline next year for some if the property tax initiative passes, and insurance is always a crap shoot.

Precision Pricing

The Ellis Team are experts at getting Top Dollar for our sellers. We use these indexes to advise our clients on how to get the most for their home. Since these indexes are forward looking, meaning they accurately predict forward direction of the market, we are able to advise our clients with more confidence than simply looking at months old comparable sales.

With our aggressive marketing, professional sales agents, and advanced market data we can sell homes faster and for more money by keeping our listings algorithm ready. The last thing you want is for the algorithm to hide your home due to unoptimized data or inaccurate pricing based on the models.

Always Call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis at 239-489-4042 to find out how to get your home optimized for the algorithm and priced correctly. Remember, a home that isn’t optimized isn’t seen by as many buyers, and that can cost you in your sales prices.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

May Home Prices Increased Video

Southwest Florida Luxury Market Video

Ellis Team Current Market Index Video

Real Cost of Overpricing: The Stagnation Tax

Every seller wants to get the most money possible for their home. That is the goal. The problem comes when “testing the market” turns into sitting on the market.

In today’s Southwest Florida real estate market, overpricing is not just a strategy risk. It is a real cost. I call it the Stagnation Tax.

What Is the Stagnation Tax?

The Stagnation Tax is the hidden price a seller pays when a home is listed too high, misses the strongest buyer activity in the first few weeks, and then begins to age online. It is not one single expense. It is the combination of carrying costs, lost negotiating leverage, price reductions, lower offers, and reduced digital visibility.

That last part may be the most expensive.

Years ago, a listing could sit in the MLS and still be seen by every buyer who searched in that price range. Today, real estate websites and search platforms are not simple filing cabinets. They are algorithm-driven systems. They watch buyer behavior. They notice when buyers skip a listing, do not click on it, do not save it, do not share it, or do not schedule showings.

Real Cost of Overpricing

When a home is overpriced, buyers often ignore it. The algorithm may interpret that lack of engagement as a sign the listing is not as relevant or attractive compared to other homes. As days on market climb, the problem can get worse. The home may receive less attention, fewer impressions, and weaker placement in buyer feeds.

That is the algorithm penalty, and it may be the steepest part of the Stagnation Tax.

The Algorithm Penalty May Be the Biggest Cost

Let’s say a home should realistically be priced at $500,000, but it is listed 3% too high at $515,000. On paper, that extra $15,000 may seem harmless. The seller may think, “We can always come down later.” But the market does not always work that cleanly.

Buyers are most alert when a home first hits the market. Real estate websites, email alerts, agent searches, and AI-driven property feeds all give a new listing its best opportunity early. If the home is overpriced during that window, the most motivated buyers may skip it entirely. They do not always make an offer. Many simply move on.

That is especially true in a market like this one. The Ellis Team Current Market Index recently dropped to 3.52, which tells us buyers are still active, but they are being selective. They are not chasing overpriced listings. They are comparing choices, watching days on market, and waiting for sellers to adjust.

In other words, buyers are not gone. They are just more rational.

Why the First 30 to 60 Days Matter

Once a listing crosses the 60-day mark, the conversation changes. Buyers begin asking, “Why hasn’t it sold?” They may assume there is something wrong with the property, even when there is not. Then, instead of making a strong offer, they often come in low because they believe the seller is getting tired.

Meanwhile, the seller is still paying the bills. Insurance, taxes, HOA fees, utilities, maintenance, lawn care, mortgage interest, and pool service do not stop just because the home has not sold. Those carrying costs can easily run into thousands of dollars over a few months.

Then comes the price reduction. The first reduction may bring attention back to the property, but it rarely recreates the excitement of a brand-new listing. If the home was overpriced long enough, buyers and algorithms may still treat it like old inventory.

That is the stagnation loop.

This is how a seller who tried to get an extra $15,000 can end up losing far more than that. They may pay months of carrying costs, reduce the price below where it should have been, and negotiate from a weaker position.

The better approach is not to underprice. It is to price with precision.

How Sellers Avoid the Stagnation Loop

Today’s pricing strategy must consider more than recent comparable sales. It must account for current competition, buyer search behavior, neighborhood supply, condition, insurance concerns, online presentation, and how the listing will be interpreted by buyers and algorithms.

That is where The AI Interview™ comes in. Before a home goes live, we use it to identify what buyers are likely to notice, question, compare, and search for. The goal is to position the home in the right pricing lane on Day 1, when attention is highest and leverage is strongest.

Overpricing feels safe because it leaves room to negotiate. In reality, it often does the opposite. It gives buyers time, choices, and confidence to negotiate harder.

The market is still moving, but it is rewarding accuracy. Sellers who hit the sweet spot early are far more likely to protect their equity than those who pay the Stagnation Tax later.

To get your home sold for Top Dollar, and beat the Stagnation Tax, Always Call the Ellis Team at
Keller Williams 239-­489-­4042 or visit https://www.TopAgent.com

 Ellis Team Current Market Index June 16, 2026 Video

Ellis Team Luxury Market Index June 17, 2026Video

 

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🙋 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is the “Algorithm Penalty” in real estate?
A: The algorithm penalty occurs when an overpriced home is systematically ignored by active buyers. Modern real estate platforms and AI property feeds track user engagement, clicks, and favorites. When a listing suffers a lack of initial engagement due to an inaccurate starting price, search algorithms interpret this as a lack of relevance, resulting in weaker placement in buyer feeds, fewer impressions, and an accelerated rise in days on market.

Q: What is the real estate “Stagnation Tax”?
A: The Stagnation Tax refers to the compounding financial losses a seller incurs when a home sits on the market too long. This includes thousands of dollars in ongoing carrying costs (mortgage interest, property taxes, HOA fees, insurance, and maintenance) combined with the eventual, aggressive price reductions required to attract buyers after the initial 30-to-60-day peak attention window has passed.

Q: How do Fort Myers home sellers avoid the stagnation loop in the current market?
A: Sellers can avoid the stagnation loop by pricing with absolute mathematical precision from Day 1 rather than using legacy “aspirational” pricing models. With tools like The AI Interview™ and the June 2026 Current Market Index (CMI™) sitting at 3.52, the local market is moving, but buyers are highly rational and selective. Achieving top dollar requires analyzing current neighborhood inventory and digital search algorithms to hit the market’s sweet spot immediately.

Florida voters may be asked this November to decide whether to expand property tax relief for many property owners. The headline sounds simple. Details matter.

The first thing homeowners need to understand is that a Florida tax bill is not one single thing. It is made up of different parts. The proposed amendment primarily affects ad valorem taxes, not non-ad valorem assessments.

Ad Valorem Taxes

Ad valorem is a Latin phrase that means “according to value.” In plain English, an ad valorem tax is based on the taxable value of your property. The property appraiser determines value, exemptions are applied, and taxable value is multiplied by millage rates set by local taxing authorities. Those authorities can include the county, city, school district, water management district, fire district, and other taxing bodies.

That is different from non-ad valorem assessments. Those are charges for specific services or improvements and are not based on your home’s value. Examples may include solid waste, stormwater, drainage, lighting, paving, or special assessments. These charges can appear on the same tax bill, but they are calculated differently. Translation: if an exemption lowers the value-based part of your bill, it does not automatically lower every line item.

That distinction matters with the proposed amendment.

Florida Property Tax Ballot

If approved by at least 60% of Florida voters, the amendment would take effect January 1, 2027. For existing Florida homestead owners who maintained permanent Florida residence by December 31, 2026, the proposal would create a larger exemption on the non-school portion of ad valorem taxes. In 2027, up to $150,000 of assessed value would be exempt from non-school property taxes. Beginning in 2028, that amount would increase to up to $250,000, with inflation adjustments beginning in 2029.

The key phrase is “non-school.” This does not eliminate school property taxes. School district taxes are still part of the ad valorem side of the bill, but this proposed increased exemption is aimed at the non-school portion.

Who Benefits?

 Who benefits most? Existing homesteaded Florida homeowners would likely be the biggest winners, especially those with enough assessed value to use the larger exemption. A homeowner with low taxable value may not receive the same dollar benefit as someone with a higher assessed value. The savings depend on exemptions and local millage rates.

New Florida residents would benefit too, but not immediately at the same level. Someone who establishes Florida homestead on or after January 1, 2027 would start with up to a $50,000 homestead exemption. After five years, that homeowner could qualify for the larger exemption. Beginning in 2030, local governments or school districts could shorten that waiting period by a two-thirds vote for a critical local need.

The proposal also affects second homes, rental properties, and commercial properties. For non-homestead residential and non-residential property, the annual cap on assessment increases for many non-school taxes would drop from 10% to 5%. That could slow taxable-value increases for investors, landlords, businesses, and seasonal property owners.

Who is Sweating it?

Now for the other side of the ledger. Lower taxes for property owners mean less revenue for local governments. That could pressure county and city budgets, infrastructure planning, public safety, stormwater projects, parks, and other services. Fire protection is a good example of why homeowners need to read their tax bill. In some cases, fire services may be funded through ad valorem taxes. In other cases, they may show up as a non-ad valorem assessment or special district charge. The amendment would not treat every fire-related line item the same way.

The bottom line is this: the amendment could reduce value-based, non-school property taxes for many property owners. It would not erase the entire tax bill, and it would not automatically reduce service-based assessments. For homeowners, this is potentially meaningful relief. For local governments, it is a major budget challenge. Voters should look past the slogan and understand exactly which part of the bill is being changed.

For questions on how this could affect your property Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams 239-489-4042

Ellis Team in the News

The Ellis Team Blog was selected by Feedspot as one of the Top 60 Estate Agent Blogs on the web.

Ellis Team Current Market Index Video

Ellis Team Luxury Market Index Video

When you list your home for sale, entering it into the local MLS is important. But in today’s market, that should be the starting point, not the entire strategy.

The Ellis Team takes an additional step.

When you list with the Ellis Team, your home is entered into our local MLS, and we also use expanded MLS access to connect your listing with more markets, more real estate professionals, and more referral opportunities beyond Lee and Collier County.

That means your home is not limited to a standard local MLS-only approach. It has the opportunity to be seen by more agents in more places, including parts of Southwest Florida, Central Florida, other areas of Florida, and participating markets outside the state.

That broader reach matters.

Not Every Buyer Is Already Local

Many buyers looking in Southwest Florida do not currently live here. Some are relocating from another part of Florida, some are coming from another state, and others are seasonal residents or retirees who begin their search online months before they ever step foot on a plane.

Because these buyers are searching from afar, their demand patterns concentrate heavily on our two primary regional hubs:

• The Fort Myers Demand Pool: Buyers targeting the core Fort Myers Real Estate Market are typically searching for central convenience, historic riverfront charm, or established, fee-free neighborhoods like Whiskey Creek. Because these buyers start filtering properties online from their hometowns, your listing must send the right algorithmic signals to cross county lines and hit their screens.

• The Estero Migration Pipeline: Families and retirees looking at the Estero Market are driven by master-planned convenience, proximity to top-tier shopping, and community-centric lifestyles like we see in Gateway. These buyers are almost always working with out-of-area agents who rely entirely on expanded MLS networks to discover active inventory for their clients.

In many cases, these out-of-town buyers are already working with an agent in their home market. If that northern or East Coast agent can access and identify your listing more easily through an expanded network, your home has a significantly better chance of being introduced to the right buyer.

That is the true value of expanded MLS listing exposure. More agents can see it, more agents can share it, and your property is no longer forced to rely only on buyers who happen to search through standard local channels.

More Than Basic MLS Marketing

 There is a big difference between entering a home into the MLS and actually marketing it.

Some sellers assume that once a home is listed online, every buyer looking in the area will automatically find it. That is not how real estate works anymore. Homes compete for attention. Buyers scroll quickly. Agents search with specific criteria. Online platforms sort and filter listings constantly.

That is why the Ellis Team looks at exposure from multiple angles.

Your home needs to be priced correctly, photographed well, described clearly, and distributed widely. The MLS is important, but it should not be treated like a digital filing cabinet.

Making Your Home Algorithm Ready

Expanded MLS access helps more agents find your home, but the listing still has to perform once people see it. That is where making your home algorithm ready comes in.

Today’s listings are evaluated by buyers, agents, real estate websites, social media feeds, and AI-powered tools. The Ellis Team utilizes our proprietary system, The AI Interview™, to audit your property’s digital footprint. We test whether your home is truly “Algorithm-Ready” to ensure it sends the right signals. These systems look for signals: strong photos, accurate details, searchable features, useful descriptions, competitive pricing, and buyer engagement.

The Ellis Team works to make sure your home sends the right signals. We highlight the features buyers care about, position the home against the competition, and create marketing that gives people a reason to stop, click, and schedule a showing.

Why Micro-Data Changes the Equation in June 2026

With the Southwest Florida market showing a clear split—where our mid-tier Current Market Index (CMI) sits at an active 3.59 while the luxury tier Luxury Market Index (LMI) experiences a seasonal shift to 5.41—exposure strategies cannot be one-size-fits-all. When inventory parameters tighten or stall, expanded MLS access ensures your home catches the exact regional or out-of-state buyer tier looking for your specific price point.

The Facebook Effect Still Applies

We have all seen the Facebook Effect. You post something online, but only a fraction of your audience sees it because the algorithm decides who gets shown the post.

Real estate has a similar challenge. Being online is not the same as being seen.

Expanded MLS listing exposure widens the audience before algorithms and filters start narrowing what people see.

Expanded MLS Listing Exposure: The Ellis Team Advantage

When you list with the Ellis Team, your home receives more than basic MLS entry. It receives local MLS exposure, expanded MLS access, algorithm-ready marketing, and a strategy designed to help your home stand out.

Your home deserves more than a sign in the yard and a listing in one database. It deserves professional marketing, wider reach, and every reasonable opportunity to be seen by the buyers and agents who matter.

That is what expanded MLS listing exposure is all about.

To see how The AI Interview™ can position your property ahead of the summer shift, contact Brett and Sande Ellis at 239-489-4042 or visit topagent.com to work with the Best Fort Myers Real Estate Agent team today.

Ellis Team Current Market Index Video

Ellis Team Luxury Market Index