The Ellis Team Current Market Index predicts better times ahead for sellers in SW Florida. What exactly does better times ahead mean?
There is less downward pressure on sellers today than last year. This does not mean that home prices are going to rise. We are simply stating that there is less pressure on the downside, and a trend is developing.
Momentum Swings
Pricing trends are like momentum in a football game. Just because one side gains momentum doesn’t mean they will win the game. You must follow through and continue that momentum. The team must fight through shifts until an outcome is determined. Much like a football game, the market is fighting. Momentum is on the seller’s side, but they haven’t won the game yet. The scoreboard still shows the buyers winning, but the score is tightening.
Coaches will tell you it doesn’t matter what you did in the first half, you’ve got to win the second half. It feels like two teams are coming out of halftime and the team that takes control will win the game. Will it be a defensive struggle or will the offenses come out swinging with a flurry?
Current Market Index Predicts Price Stability
So far inventory has risen a bit, but pending sales are rising fast. The Ellis Team Current Market Index, now published online at https://www.topagent.com/current-market-index/ has fallen to 4.23. Our page explains the index and what the numbers mean. That number is lower than any point in 2025. Last January the number stood at 7.04 and fell to a low of 4.31 in May. Already in 2026, we are below last year’s low, and significantly below last year at this time.
We are not at that 3.0 level where things begin to get interesting, but 4.23 is a welcome sight amongst sellers who were looking 5’s 6’s and 7 in 2025. 1,126 few single-family homes are on the market this year, thanks to the 4th best year on record for home closings last year. While sellers may not like the prices homes are selling at in 2026, sellers have met the moment and acted. Like football, you play with the players on your roster today. It doesn’t matter what hall of famers were on your roster two or three years ago, you’ve got to compete today with today’s players.
The real estate market is similar. It doesn’t matter how much your home was worth two to three years ago. We’ve got to play the game today based on today’s competition. Today, buyers are still winning, but you can feel the momentum swing just a bit, The crowd is getting louder. Everyone is anticipating what will happen. Can the sellers pull ahead?
Great Game Ahead
No matter who wins, a balanced market makes for a great game. It can be argued that when neither the buyer nor seller wins, everybody wins. Homes are more affordable, and there is a liquid market to sell and reasonable prices. Hopefully we can get back to that normal 4% appreciation rate per year soon. When the market gets too out of whack, it causes fluctuations that take time to recover. Are we nearing the end of that time? Are we closer to normal? We’ll keep an eye on the scoreboard for you. We hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl and the football analogies this week.
To reach Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis, call us at 239-489-4042 To get an instant online estimate of your home’s value, check out https://www.SWFLhomevalues.com
Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!