[MARKET DATA ALERT]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As of February 28, 2026, the Fort Myers real estate market has hit a “Stabilization Peak.” While our 5,853 Market Spread Index (MSI) and 4.82 Luxury CMI still show decent conditions for buyers, the wide-open window of 12 months ago is beginning to close. We are observing an erosion of buyer leverage as the general market improves, a trend we expect to see in the luxury sector soon.

The 2022-2023 Peak vs. The 2026 Reality

The market has come a long way from the frantic highs of 2022 and 2023. Since that peak, prices have undergone a necessary correction, leading to the 5,853 Market Spread Index (MSI) we see today. However, the narrative that buyers have unlimited time to negotiate is no longer accurate. The general market is currently finding its floor, and the inventory that sat for months a year ago is beginning to be absorbed by a new wave of demand.

The Luxury 4.82 CMI: The Last Stronghold of Leverage?

Our proprietary Current Market Index (CMI) for the luxury sector currently stands at 4.82. While this baseline confirms that the luxury market remains softer than the general residential market, it is not immune to the stabilization trend.

In our index, a higher number signifies buyer leverage. While 4.82 currently gives high-end buyers a “decent” hand in negotiations, we anticipate this number will begin to contract as the broader market recovery moves up into the luxury price points.

Don’t Price for the Past

Sellers who are still anchoring their expectations to the 2022-2023 peak are the ones currently “sitting” on the market. Conversely, buyers who expect the same aggressive terms that were available 12 months ago may find themselves missing out. The market has reset, and the window for maximum negotiation is starting to narrow. Properties that respect the 21-Day Velocity Window are the ones successfully transitioning in this new environment.

DEEPER DATA: This report is a snapshot for our blog readers. For the full, verified interactive data sets—including the neighborhood-specific shifts in Whiskey Creek, Reflection Lakes, and Eagle Reserve—visit our market authority site.

Visit the Ellis Team Fort Myers Market Hub for Live 2026 Data →

 

SW Florida home sellers took a big sigh of relief as January home prices leveled off as we predicted. Lee County single family median home prices rose by .1% in January from last year to $400,000, up from $399,500. Average single family home prices rose by 2% to $611,708, up from $599,658 last year.

Ellis Team Current Market Index Predicted Leveling Off

The Ellis Team Current Market Index predicted a leveling off in home prices, Our latest reading stands at 3.78 and can be found at https://www.topagent.com/current-market-index/ The index tells us there is less downward pricing pressure on sellers. We’ve recommended buyers in the past few months now is the time to purchase if they’ve been on the fence because they are losing negotiating leverage. We are heading into a balanced market, and the low offers and incentives sellers were forced to accept are over. Sellers in SW Florida had their day, and so did buyers. We are at or very close to that balanced market.

January Home Prices Leveled

As January home prices leveled off, a few other things happened in January. Closed sales were 15.4% higher than last year. New pending sales were up 33.9% from last January. And inventory declined 1% to 9,344. Officially we have a 7.9-month supply of homes on the market, which would still suggest a buyer’s market. We have been tracking smaller numbers in our MLS, closer to the 6-month supply number. For instance, Fort Myers has a 6.01-month supply of homes in January. Cape Coral has a 6.16 months supply of homes on the market presently.

Why the Difference?

The official numbers use data from multiple MLS systems. It’s possible for outside brokers to list properties here in Lee County and place them in an outside MLS. Those listings are invisible to many brokers in Lee County because the Florida Gulf Coast MLS is the primary MLS in Lee County. The Ellis Team has access to the other MLS’s and can list seller’s homes in multiple MLS, but many brokers cannot. The real risk is listing with someone who lists in an outside MLS but does not list it in the primary MLS here.

Dangerous Time

When market transition it becomes a dangerous market for uninformed buyers and sellers.  Most consumers negotiate based on the market we are from rather than the market we are in. This is because consumers don’t have access to the data. Real estate agents know if they are busy, but they don’t always have the time or expertise to dive deep into the numbers, so they can miss a transition. Eventually everyone figures it out, but the smart buyers and sellers act sooner, beating the market by weeks or months. The real estate market isn’t as efficient as the stock market. You cannot look up on the big board and see how every property is changing in value hourly or minute by minute. Official data comes out slowly and is behind by weeks. It pays to study the market, and the submarkets. Each neighborhood can behave differently and buck a trend.

If you’re considering selling your home in Lee County, call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams. We are the real estate authority on data and market analysis. You can reach Sande Ellis and Brett Ellis at 239-489-4042, or visit www.SWFLHomevalues.com to get an instant Free online estimate.

If you’re a buyer, we have specialists who can help you make a good decision for your family and beat other buyers to Hot New Listings. Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Always Call the Ellis Team, we’re here to help!

Danger Zone in Real Estate Market

If you’ve lived in the same place for nearly two decades, you may be looking for a clear roadmap selling your home can often feel overwhelming without. At The Ellis Team, we understand that moving after 15+ years isn’t just a real estate transaction; it’s a major life transition that requires balancing logistical steps with emotional milestones.

For many homeowners in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, a house is far more than a structure of stucco and tile. It’s a living scrapbook of your life in Lee County. It’s where you raised your children, hosted holiday dinners, and watched the neighborhood canopy grow. Perhaps it’s the home you bought when you first arrived, back when traffic on US-41 was lighter and “hidden gems” were still secret.

When you’ve lived in a home for decades, selling is rarely just a financial choice. We call this the “Downsizer’s Dilemma.” It’s the paralyzing feeling that occurs when the desire for a maintenance-free lifestyle clashes with the weight of years of memories. If you feel overwhelmed, you aren’t alone. Here is your roadmap to navigating this journey.

Moving After 15+ Years: Quick Tips

The Goal: Focus on the life you are moving toward, not just the home you are leaving.

The Process: Tackle one room a week to avoid downsizing burnout.

The Advantage: Leverage your equity to secure your future in Southwest Florida.

 

Acknowledge the “Emotional Equity”

You aren’t just selling real estate; you’re closing a major chapter. Before you reach for the packing tape, give yourself permission to grieve the transition.

The Pro Tip: Take “legacy photos.” Before you declutter, capture the house exactly as it looks today—the growth marks on the door frame or the sun hitting your favorite chair. By “bottling” the memories digitally, it becomes significantly easier to let go of the physical space.

The 15-Year Rule: Tackling “Invisible” Clutter

When you stay in one place for 15+ years, you stop “seeing” your belongings. Closets and garages become time capsules. In Southwest Florida, we often see the “Attic Trap”—spaces where items are stored and forgotten in the heat, often deteriorating over time.

The Strategy: Use the “One Room a Week” rule. Start with the room that has the least emotional attachment—like the laundry room or garage—to build your momentum.

The “Keep, Gift, or Donate” Framework

The hardest part of downsizing is deciding what to do with your “stuff.” Use these filters:

Keep: Does it fit the lifestyle of your next home? If you’re moving to a condo, you won’t need that heavy-duty lawnmower.

Gift: Does a family member truly want it? Ask them directly. If they don’t have room for the heirloom china, don’t take it personally.

Donate: If you haven’t touched it in five years, let it find a new home where it will be used.

Updating a “Time Capsule” Home

If your home hasn’t been on the market since the mid-2000s, today’s buyers have different expectations. Focus on high-impact, low-cost refreshes like neutral paint, updated light fixtures, and ensuring your HVAC and roof are in top shape—major concerns for Florida buyers.

Pricing for the Future

Separating what you paid from what the market says it’s worth today is vital. While you likely have significant equity, the market is driven by current inventory and rates. At The Ellis Team, we use our Current Market Index https://www.topagent.com/current-market-index/ to protect the equity you’ve spent nearly two decades building.

The Bottom Line

Selling after 15+ years isn’t about “leaving” a home; it’s about “transferring” your life to a space that fits who you are today. You’ve done the hard work of maintaining a large home; now it’s time to enjoy the fruits of that labor.

Ready to start? Call the Ellis Team at 239-489-4042. We offer a confidential, no-pressure “Senior Transition Strategy Session” to map out your timeline and your home’s true value.

Check out our latest Ellis Team Current Market Index 4.00 and what it means for buyers and sellers. Find out what your home is worth instanty online.

Roadmap Selling Your Home Video

Price Reductions Don’t Mean the Market is Falling Video

Real Estate Headlines Video

Our Latest Gulf Coast Real Estate Insider Podcast Video

 

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“We have just released a comprehensive analysis of the early 2026 housing trends across Lee County. In this update, we use the Ellis Team Current Market Index to show why seller pressure is easing in neighborhoods like McGregor, Whiskey Creek, and Gateway.

You can read the full breakdown and see the neighborhood-specific data on our official LinkedIn Market Analysis Article.

The Ellis Team Current Market Index predicts better times ahead for sellers in SW Florida. What exactly does better times ahead mean?

There is less downward pressure on sellers today than last year. This does not mean that home prices are going to rise. We are simply stating that there is less pressure on the downside, and a trend is developing.

Momentum Swings

Pricing trends are like momentum in a football game. Just because one side gains momentum doesn’t mean they will win the game. You must follow through and continue that momentum. The team must fight through shifts until an outcome is determined. Much like a football game, the market is fighting. Momentum is on the seller’s side, but they haven’t won the game yet. The scoreboard still shows the buyers winning, but the score is tightening.

Coaches will tell you it doesn’t matter what you did in the first half, you’ve got to win the second half. It feels like two teams are coming out of halftime and the team that takes control will win the game.  Will it be a defensive struggle or will the offenses come out swinging with a flurry?

Current Market Index Predicts Price Stability

So far inventory has risen a bit, but pending sales are rising fast. The Ellis Team Current Market Index, now published online at https://www.topagent.com/current-market-index/ has fallen to 4.23. Our page explains the index and what the numbers mean. That number is lower than any point in 2025. Last January the number stood at 7.04 and fell to a low of 4.31 in May. Already in 2026, we are below last year’s low, and significantly below last year at this time.

We are not at that 3.0 level where things begin to get interesting, but 4.23 is a welcome sight amongst sellers who were looking 5’s 6’s and 7 in 2025. 1,126 few single-family homes are on the market this year, thanks to the 4^th best year on record for home closings last year. While sellers may not like the prices homes are selling at in 2026, sellers have met the moment and acted. Like football, you play with the players on your roster today. It doesn’t matter what hall of famers were on your roster two or three years ago, you’ve got to compete today with today’s players.

The real estate market is similar. It doesn’t matter how much your home was worth two to three years ago. We’ve got to play the game today based on today’s competition. Today, buyers are still winning, but you can feel the momentum swing just a bit, The crowd is getting louder. Everyone is anticipating what will happen. Can the sellers pull ahead?

Great Game Ahead

 No matter who wins, a balanced market makes for a great game. It can be argued that when neither the buyer nor seller wins, everybody wins. Homes are more affordable, and there is a liquid market to sell and reasonable prices. Hopefully we can get back to that normal 4% appreciation rate per year soon. When the market gets too out of whack, it causes fluctuations that take time to recover. Are we nearing the end of that time? Are we closer to normal? We’ll keep an eye on the scoreboard for you. We hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl and the football analogies this week.

To reach Sande Ellis or Brett Ellis, call us at 239-489-4042 To get an instant online estimate of your home’s value, check out https://www.SWFLhomevalues.com

Good luck, and Happy Home Selling!

Ellis Team Current Market Index Video Explained

Southwest Florida pending home sales are up 3.3% from this exact same week last year. They are also up 5.7% from last week. We are measuring the cumulative pending home sales and not the new pendings. Of course, new pending home sales will help add to the total until they either close or fall out.

Why Do We Track Southwest Florida Pending Home Sales?

 Pending sales lead to closings, and we are constantly evaluating what kind of market we are in an where we are headed. Being able to predict future closings helps keep our clients ahead of other buyers and sellers in the market. The Southwest Florida pending home sales metric is perhaps the easiest and most basic metric we track, and yet it tells us important information.

How Do Sellers Use This Information?

We always want to price at the market, or ahead of the market. Sellers never want to price behind the market. If the market is declining, pricing behind the market just gets you further behind as time passes. In a rising market, you can afford to price ahead of the market as the market will catch you eventually. This is where we study absorption rates and how long it will take for the market to catch you. Then we can align with your goals and help you decide how to market your home.

Buyers Need Help Too

Buyers can easily get caught negotiating in yesterday’s market, to their own detriment. In a declining market, buyers may want to be more aggressive with their offers. But what happens when the market begins to turn back positive? Buyers wonder why they keep missing out on offers, only to watch the listing sell to another buyer. Many times, the buyer was using outdated information in their decision process.

Emotional Transactions

Both buyers and sellers are guilty of using data to convince themselves their position is correct. They get frustrated when the other side doesn’t understand where they are coming from and why. Sometimes they seek out another agent who can better convince the other side of their position. Sometimes this is true, the agent you’re working with may not understand the market. However, sometimes it is the buyer or seller who doesn’t understand what’s happening today.

Headlines Are a Problem

How many times have you read a headline only to find out the story doesn’t match the headline, or the reporter didn’t seem to understand the data. It might surprise you to know that reporters often write the story and a headline writer creates the headline. The headline is meant to sell the story, not 100% match the story. That is frustrating. Worse is when the writer doesn’t understand the data. How could we expect them to? If some agents don’t understand, how could a reporter outside our industry understand the data? Reporters have to be a jack of all trades, covering finance, medicine, local, crime, weather, etc. There is no way they can know the story without speaking with a professional.

Thinking of Buying or Selling?

It pays to speak with a professional who knows the market. Each neighborhood can act differently than the overall market, and savvy buyers and sellers study micro-markets to find the best value. To help you track these trends, we’ve launched dedicated resources for some of the area’s most sought-after locations. You can now explore the latest market data and listings on our new Brightwater community page and our Pelican Preserve real estate guide.

If you’re looking for an agent to market your home and differentiate you from all the other sellers, always call the Ellis Team at 239-489-4042 or visit our website at www.topagent.com.   Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

View Our Latest Podcast Episode

Is the SW Florida Real Estate Market Stabilizing?