Introducing the Ellis Team Market Spread Index™ for January 2026. Currently the index stands at 6,259. This index effectively measures the gap between the current available single-family listings and the total pending sales. The distance between the two measures market intensity. As the gap widens it can signal that buyers are turning off or rejecting current market conditions and choosing less to participate. As the gap narrows it signifies buyers and sellers are on the same page and both are participating in an efficient market. In this case, demand is closer to supply and closer to equilibrium.

Ellis Team Market Spread Index History

If you go back to 2022 you will see the Ellis Team Market Spread Index was below zero. This means that more homes were coming off the market than coming on. It created a tremendous imbalance. Demand outpaced supply, and it caused prices to soar. On the other end of the spectrum, February 11, 2025, saw the height of the index. At that time, supply far outpaced demand, and the index stood at 7,403. This means there was a difference of over 7,400 homes on the market and pending demand.

The extreme in 2022 led to what would come in 2025 when the market shifted. Markets love to be in balance, but they can’t stay there. Something always happens to cause a shift. How extreme the shift becomes can lead to the next shift. This is why we like to keep our shifts in range, but of course we are not in charge of anything. As real estate agents we simply work in the market we are in and help buyers and sellers interpret. Indexes such as the Ellis Team Current Market Index™ and the Ellis Team Market Spread Index™ help us as agents interpret the market.

How Most Agents Interpret the Market

Most agents interpret the market by how they feel. If their phone is ringing, and if they’re working with buyers and sellers, they feel like the market is busy and things are popping. Conversely, if they are not busy, they interpret the market as slow. Both can be incorrect. The market is not hot or cold based upon how busy an agent is. Some agents take the summers off, so when they come back, they have no pipeline because they haven’t been in the market or lead generating. Does that mean the market is soft when they come back? Absolutely not.

Data Driven Strategy

The Ellis Team works year-round and judges the market by the data, not our feelings. If we are busy, it is because we actively market our properties and are lead generating. If we are slow down, then it is up to us to go out and create business. We are not busy or slow because of the market. We will never use the market as an excuse. Many properties sell even in the slowest of markets, and somebody is selling them. This is why we never stop marketing, never stop working. Our clients depend on us, and so do our team.

If you have a property to sell, give Brett or Sande Ellis a call at 239-489-4042. We’re easy to talk to, and we never stop working. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a Free instant home evaluation. Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams, and put our advanced marketing system, never give up attitude, and data driven strategies to work for you.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Official numbers were just released, and Fort Myers Cape Coral home prices were down 4.9% from last year. Since the peak in 2022, year-end median prices are down 10.47%. Lee County median home prices were down 3.8% in December 2025 vs. December 2024, which signifies that home prices are not declining at the rate they were in all of 2025. Remember, the year-end price is the average for the year, not the spot they ended up at. Ironically, this year that number is the same, but not by design.

Fort Myers Cape Coral Home Prices

The Ellis Team Current Market Index has been predicting less pressure on home prices than last year. Those numbers are still holding true. We are not saying homes will appreciate anytime soon. We are saying there is less pressure to depreciate, which is a precursor to the market turning someday, assuming nothing changes to interrupt the pattern. Median home prices rose $5,000 in December from November. This too does not mean home prices are rising, as we generally have seasonality in home prices heading into season.

Good News on Inventory

Months supply of inventory ended the year at 6.8 months. That is down from 7.3 months in December 2024. Pending sales also increased in December 14.8%. As you know, pending sales lead to closed sales, which is a good sign moving forward. Speaking of closed sales, we can confirm that 2025 was the 4th best year on record for closed sales, as we predicted a while back. For a deeper look at specific areas like Iona or the McGregor corridor, the inventory levels are telling slightly different stories.

Dollar volume was down in 2025 1.5%. You might ask what dollar volume is. Dollar volume is the number of sales multiplied by the average sales price. It is the total amount of money exchanging hands between buyers and sellers. For dollar volume to be down while sales were up 4.3% means only one thing: home prices helped bring that number down.

Affordability

Home prices are now more affordable for home buyers. Combine lower home prices with lower insurance and lower interest rates, and you’ve got a recipe for buyers motivated to purchase a home, assuming they are confident in their job situation.

SW Florida is beginning to see the signs of positive consumer sentiment as it relates to housing. Buyers are feeling more confident that now is the time to buy. Home buyers still have fear about the market, and that is reflected in some of their offers. They know they want to buy, but they don’t want to overpay if the market isn’t done going down yet.

As paychecks become larger due to the tax cut, and income tax rebate checks hit the mail, we’ll be watching to see if homebuyers continue with their shopping.

Real Estate Resources

We have some resources that may help you out. If you are a seller, you might want to check out our Free Home Value Site.

We’ve also completely updated our Fort Myers Real Estate Hub, which serves as a comprehensive guide for both buyers and sellers in the current “2026 Reset” market.

Of course, Brett and Sande Ellis are available to answer your questions at 239-489-4042. Lastly, if you’d like to search the MLS like a pro, check out LeeCountyOnline.com. You’ll see the latest listings the minute they hit the market, and we have lots of neighborhood market data there too.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

2026 SW Florida Market Update Video

What Most Agents Don’t Tell You (But You Need to Know).

Buying or selling a home in Fort Myers in 2026 is no longer about timing the market — it’s about strategy.

Inventory has normalized, buyers are selective, sellers are negotiating again, and the margin for error has narrowed. Yet most advice still sounds like it’s coming from 2021.

This checklist covers what buyers and sellers need to know right now in Fort Myers — including the things many agents don’t bring up until it’s too late.

🏡 SELLER CHECKLIST: What to Do Before You List in Fort Myers

1. Pricing Is No Longer a Guess — It’s a Positioning Strategy

• Overpricing doesn’t “test the market” anymore — it pushes you into the wrong buyer pool
• First 14–21 days matter more than ever
• If you don’t have offers in the first 10 days, reposition your home. Don’t wait

What most agents won’t tell you:
You don’t need to be the cheapest — you need to be the clearest value.

2. Condition Matters More Than Ever (Even in Good Neighborhoods)

• Buyers are skipping “projects”
• Deferred maintenance = negotiation leverage for buyers
• Insurance-related issues (roof age, windows, air conditioners) are deal killers

Checklist

• Roof age documented
• Insurance quotes reviewed before listing
• Inspection-style pre-check (not cosmetic fluff)

3. Marketing Without a Strategy Is Just Noise

Photos alone don’t sell homes anymore.

What works:

• Neighborhood-specific pricing context
• Buyer objections addressed before showings
• Digital + agent-to-agent visibility

Reality check:
If your listing strategy sounds the same as everyone else’s, it won’t stand out.

🧠 BUYER CHECKLIST: How to Compete Without Overpaying

4. Pre-Approval ≠ Buying Power

In Fort Myers, how you’re approved matters.

• Local lenders > national call centers
• Terms and timelines often matter more than price
• Clean offers win — not just high offers

Ask your lender:

• Can you close in under 30 days?
• How strong does my file look to a listing agent?

5. Negotiation Happens Before the Offer Is Written

Smart buyers win concessions without bidding wars.

Examples

• Inspection timelines
• Seller credits vs price cuts
• Flexible possession dates

What most buyers don’t realize:
The strongest leverage often happens before numbers are finalized.

6. Neighborhood Knowledge Beats Online Estimates

Two homes a block apart can perform very differently in Fort Myers.

Factors buyers miss:

• Flood zones
• HOA rules that affect rentals or resale
• Insurance and rebuilding costs post-Ian

Rule:
Zestimates don’t understand neighborhoods — experienced local agents do. Consult a knowledgeable agent.

⚠️ SHARED MISTAKES Buyers & Sellers Still Make in 2026

• Relying on national headlines instead of local data
• Waiting for “rates to drop” instead of running real numbers
• Choosing agents based on personality, not performance
• Treating Fort Myers like a generic Florida market

✅ FINAL CHECKLIST: Questions You Should Ask Any Fort Myers Agent

Use this before you commit:

• How many Fort Myers-area transactions have you handled recently?
• What pricing mistakes are you seeing right now?
• How are buyers negotiating differently in 2026?
• What would you do if this were your home or money?

If they can’t answer clearly — keep looking.

Fort Myers Buyer & Seller Checklist 2026

The Fort Myers market rewards clarity, preparation, and local experience. Follow this checklist and beat out other buyers and sellers to the goal.

Whether you’re buying or selling, the right strategy makes the difference between a smooth transaction and an expensive lesson.

The Ellis Team brings decades of Fort Myers market experience and hundreds of MLS-verified transactions across Southwest Florida — helping buyers and sellers make informed decisions, not rushed ones.

Call the Ellis Team at 239-489-4042 and we’ll develop a winning strategy for you.

Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

We have a better real estate market heading into 2026 than we did at this time last year. I was just analyzing market data from early last January and some numbers stood out to me.

Ellis Team Current Market Index

 The Ellis Team current market index stands at 5.80 this week which is much less than the 7.04 the first week of January 2025. Remember, the lower the number the better the prospect of stable or rising prices in the future. While 5.8 is still higher than I’d like to see, it is an improvement from last year. The market doesn’t care what I’d prefer, it just is what it is.

Better Real Estate Market in 2026

It not only feels like a better real estate market in 2026, but it is also for several reasons.  Closings were up in 2025. Homes are more affordable as prices have come down the past 3 years. Insurance costs are declining as regulatory reforms have kicked in. Lower inflation costs have probably helped insurance costs too.

Interest rates on loans have come down by about .75% in the last year, which has helped with affordability as well. Inflation is down significantly, which helps with ordinary expenses leaving more money to afford a home. We believe that when people receive their tax return for 2025 combined with more net pay after taxes going forward in their paycheck, people will have more money in their pockets. What they do with that money remains to be seen; however, many will use it to afford a home.

No Hurricanes

 We had no hurricanes in 2025. In 2024 we had 2 that came close enough to our area to flood some properties. We had no flooding in 2025. Before Hurricane Irma in 2017 we had a long spell of zero to minimal flooding. If we can get back to a period between events it will do wonders for our area.

The economy looks to be shaping up heading into 2026. As more capital spending comes back to the US along with jobs, it will offset jobs lost due to AI. Bringing factories back to the US is critical, and it’s happening.

Oil prices have come down by about 20% in the last year. Not only do we have more money in our pockets, but oil also influences the cost of everything. Roof shingles, clothing, and so much more are directly tied to the cost of oil. Lower oil prices will reflect in lower prices of almost everything else going forward.

 Affordability Reset

Everything was high in 2022. Home prices, inflation, insurance, etc. A reset was not only needed, but it was also inevitable. The economy couldn’t sustain those kinds of costs. Now that home prices have reset, and costs are coming down like insurance and interest rates, home sales are picking up steam. When official figures are released for 2025 sales, we expect it to be the 4^th best year on record. 2026 might be even better.

Don’t expect home prices to skyrocket. First, they will level off, then eventually gain. We don’t want it to happen overnight. Slow and steady wins the race, and we’re finally getting closer to that point. Covid through 2024 was a mess. 2025 picked up steam even if home prices were declining still. It will be fun to watch what happens in 2026. Truthfully, nobody knows, but there are signs not present the past several years.

If you have real estate questions, call the SW Florida experts. 239-489-4042 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant free estimate of your home’s value.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Reflection Lakes Update