In SW Florida we are watching inventory levels rising ahead of last year’s pace. Unofficially single-family home inventory peaked on March 18th, 2025, at 9,367 homes on the market. Last year on November 19th we had 7,067 homes on the market and rose all the way until March 18th. This year inventory levels have been heading up and already stand at 7,478. Essentially, we already have 411 more homes on the market today than this time last year.
The Gap
We track the gap, which is the difference between homes coming to the market and homes going pending. The gap has been growing since September 9th, 2025. The same thing happened last year which tells us if something doesn’t change, inventory levels in 2026 could peak out higher than 2025 levels. Inventory could not rise if more homes were coming off the market than going on.
Pending home sales have risen in the past few weeks, but not enough to offset the gain in new listings entering the market.
Inventory Levels Rising Ahead of Last Year
Rising inventory levels have led to lower home prices than last year. In the latest posted numbers, median single family home prices fell 2.1% in September. We’ll get some new numbers out this week, but not in time for our deadline for this article. We are tracking 1,105 home sales in Lee County with a median price of $393,000. Last year the October median home price was $400,000 so that is a 1.75% decline. Our numbers are unofficial numbers tracked inside our MLS. There will be a few more sales posted from other MLS’s that could affect these numbers. Average sales price numbers could be lower as well.
Year over Year Numbers
Last year hurricanes Helene and Milton affected SW Florida to a degree. While neither offering a direct hit, closings were affected. For instance, we only had 886 sales posted last year versus 1,105+ this year.
What Could Help This Year?
Last year we had high interest rates and two hurricanes close enough to flood some homes and delay some closings. If you recall, the Fed lowered rates just before the election, but the mortgage market wasn’t having it. This year the Fed has lowered rates twice and mortgage rates are less than they were. Additionally, we were not hit by any hurricanes in the Gulf this year. Consequently, insurance rates were already coming down due to insurance reforms, and they may continue to drop.
Triple Option
If we see lower interest rates in 2026 combined with lower insurance rates, and finally more people moving from high tax states like IL, CA, NJ, and NY, we could have a triple boost to our housing market. However, if none of this materializes, we could see diminished positive impact and a continuation of the escalating inventory levels. Remember we said earlier, if nothing changes, inventory levels could go higher, and we could see further price drops. We’re keeping a close eye on these factors along with economic conditions. We do not invent the facts, only report them and deal with them.
When the market was escalating quickly many said Realtors were inflating prices. Realtors do not dictate sale prices, the market does. A good Realtor can help a seller get Top Dollar for their property, but the market decides what top dollar is. Good Realtors know the market stats and can help advise clients on how to act in the market they are transacting in. The Realtor you get your information from is not responsible for the market, good or bad, but rather a provider of valuable information. It pays to listen to Realtors who know the market.
Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042 or search for homes at www.LeeCountyOnline.com Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!