Official numbers show Lee County home prices fell 2.5% from last year. October 2025 median price was $389,900 compared to $400,000 in October 2024. This is the part of the year when median home prices begin to rise as there is seasonality in the numbers. This does not mean that home prices are rising, but simply more expensive homes are selling at this time of year, which raises the median price.

Lee County Home Prices Fell

This is why we like to look at the year over year numbers to spot trends. The price trend is still down but not as bad as earlier in the year. Average price was down 2.8%, from $530,281 last October to $515,575 this year. This is why we look at other factors for clues as to what the housing market may do next.

Closed Sales

 Closed sales are up 2.6% for the year. They were down all year, but thanks to hurricanes Helene and Milton last year, closed sales plummeted last year. Closings are not up this year 26.7% this October, but they appear to be by looking at the year-over-year numbers. I’d make the argument they were down substantially this year, so any number posted would be a gain.

Pending inventory is also up 13.9%. This is because new pending sales in October are up 42% over last year. If you look at the numbers, they are not up. We are still below 1,200 new pending sales in October. It’s easy to draw conclusions you want to be true if you look at the shiny thing. For data to mean something, we want to see what it is really telling us. Not what we want to see.

It Is What It Is

All is not bad. We have the prospect of lower interest rates coming and the possibility of many residents moving to Florida. Additionally, we also expect seniors to continue moving to Florida. Affordability for first time home buyers and seniors will be an issue. We like to see lowering of insurance costs and interest rates. We think property taxes will be next on consumers’ minds as taxes have gone up dramatically in the past 5 years.

How Do You Sell in This Market?

Price is an issue in any market. Beyond price, you must also look at what is driving the market and the other factors mentioned above. Differentiating your home versus all the other homes is integral to selling. If you read our article two weeks ago we talked about how to differentiate in this market. I would suggest you go back and read that. Past articles can be found at https://blog.topagent.com If inventory surpasses last year’s numbers, marketing will be key. Inventory is already ahead of last year’s numbers, so we need something to change, or it could end up higher this year. Property tax relief, insurance relief, lower interest rates, and more buyers from up North could help if they materialize.

If you’re thinking of selling, Call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a Free and Instant value of your home. Like any online valuation service, it may be accurate but needs to be verified. If you’re thinking of selling, Sande or Brett would be happy to validate for you.

We hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and enjoyed time off with friends and family.

Happy Holidays, and Happy Selling!

In SW Florida we are watching inventory levels rising ahead of last year’s pace.  Unofficially single-family home inventory peaked on March 18^th, 2025, at 9,367 homes on the market. Last year on November 19^th we had 7,067 homes on the market and rose all the way until March 18^th.  This year inventory levels have been heading up and already stand at 7,478. Essentially, we already have 411 more homes on the market today than this time last year.

The Gap

We track the gap, which is the difference between homes coming to the market and homes going pending. The gap has been growing since September 9^th, 2025. The same thing happened last year which tells us if something doesn’t change, inventory levels in 2026 could peak out higher than 2025 levels. Inventory could not rise if more homes were coming off the market than going on.

Pending home sales have risen in the past few weeks, but not enough to offset the gain in new listings entering the market.

Inventory Levels Rising Ahead of Last Year

Rising inventory levels have led to lower home prices than last year. In the latest posted numbers, median single family home prices fell 2.1% in September. We’ll get some new numbers out this week, but not in time for our deadline for this article. We are tracking 1,105 home sales in Lee County with a median price of $393,000. Last year the October median home price was $400,000 so that is a 1.75% decline. Our numbers are unofficial numbers tracked inside our MLS. There will be a few more sales posted from other MLS’s that could affect these numbers. Average sales price numbers could be lower as well.

Year over Year Numbers

Last year hurricanes Helene and Milton affected SW Florida to a degree. While neither offering a direct hit, closings were affected. For instance, we only had 886 sales posted last year versus 1,105+ this year.

What Could Help This Year?

Last year we had high interest rates and two hurricanes close enough to flood some homes and delay some closings. If you recall, the Fed lowered rates just before the election, but the mortgage market wasn’t having it. This year the Fed has lowered rates twice and mortgage rates are less than they were. Additionally, we were not hit by any hurricanes in the Gulf this year. Consequently, insurance rates were already coming down due to insurance reforms, and they may continue to drop.

Triple Option

If we see lower interest rates in 2026 combined with lower insurance rates, and finally more people moving from high tax states like IL, CA, NJ, and NY, we could have a triple boost to our housing market. However, if none of this materializes, we could see diminished positive impact and a continuation of the escalating inventory levels. Remember we said earlier, if nothing changes, inventory levels could go higher, and we could see further price drops.  We’re keeping a close eye on these factors along with economic conditions. We do not invent the facts, only report them and deal with them.

When the market was escalating quickly many said Realtors were inflating prices. Realtors do not dictate sale prices, the market does. A good Realtor can help a seller get Top Dollar for their property, but the market decides what top dollar is. Good Realtors know the market stats and can help advise clients on how to act in the market they are transacting in. The Realtor you get your information from is not responsible for the market, good or bad, but rather a provider of valuable information. It pays to listen to Realtors who know the market.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042 or search for homes at www.LeeCountyOnline.com  Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!

whe Ellis Team has come up with some advanced real estate marketing techniques that are working for our clients. One of the advantages of working in the real estate industry for 40 years is we’ve gotten the chance to learn what works in changing markets. The technology delivery systems may change, but the message and targeting remain the same.

Advanced Real Estate Marketing Techniques

One technique we use is one that has been stripped of other agents. Let me explain by telling a few stories, and the secret sauce. We have always been really good at finding buyers for our homes. One strategy we used was keyword targeting. We had a listing in South Fort Myers on a nice street. Every other home on the street was for sale and not selling. The last remaining owner called us and asked if we could sell theirs. It was about $800,000+ back in 2016.

We sold it in 13 days and everyone asked how we did it.  We knew how much money someone had to make to buy a home, or how much assets they needed to pay cash. So we targeted the buyer online and it worked. Since 2016 DOJ has stepped in and said you cannot advertise to people based upon how much money they make because it is discrimination. Unfortunately, if someone doesn’t make a certain amount of money, the bank won’t lend them money.

In another instance, we had a listing in Pelican Preserve. We targeted buyers 55+ since you must be 55+ to purchase there. Obviously we cannot sell it to a 30-year-old because it is a 55+ community. We sold that listing. With the new rules, we wouldn’t be able do that either. This is where our advanced real estate mareting tecqniques come into play.

Real Estate Database

There is an exception to the advertising rules. We cannot use Facebook or Google databases to target ads that relate to housing, but we can use our own database. Over the years we’ve built up almost 17,000 people searching using www.LeeCountyOnline.com. We can see what areas they are searching in, and what price ranges they like, among many other fields.

When we list a property we can target those buyers. We do not have to rely on Google or Facebook who are under restriction by the DOJ. We can market to our own database and get our listing in the hands of those that are actually searching for that kind of home.

Lost in Search

With so many homes on the market, buyers get lost in search. All the homes kind of run together on Zillow and Realtor.com. If that’s all the listing agent does, your home won’t stand out. It gets lost. The Ellis Team on the other hand advertises our listings online directly to the consumer, bypassing Zillow and Realtor.com. Sure, our listings are still listed on all the portals, but that’s not what is selling homes today. A listing must be differentiated to stand out.

Differentiation is Key

Just like the job market, a home must stand out above the competition. Your home is applying for the job of being the next home for another family. We want to make it stand out, and what better way than to get creative with the advertising and get it in the hands of those who most likely want it. Remember, the message and targeting remain the same. We are simply using advanced techniques using today’s technology, combined with our expansive database, and powerful messaging to sell homes.

Thinking of Selling?

Thinking of selling? Perhaps you tried once and it didn’t work out? Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams 239-310-6500. Brett and Sande Ellis can sit down with you and discuss your options. We’ll be happy to talk to you about our Advanced Real Estate Marketing Techniques. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a Free instant computer analysis.

See our Expert Q&A on SW Florida real estate answers.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Open House Sunday 1-4 PM

While researching homes closed sales data, we noticed similarities with 2023. In fact, 2019 and 2024 sales data are similar too, but 2023 looks the closest to us. What conclusions can we draw if homes closed sales data finishes the year like 2023?

Listing inventory in the middle of 2025 stood at 7,004 single family home listings. In the middle of 2024, it stood at 6,200. That’s a 12.97% increase in listings with a similar number of closings. That is not a great sign for SW Florida home sellers and home sale prices.

Last year pending sales slid from March 26^th 2024 all the way to until January 21^st of 2025 when they started picking back up again. It’s no wonder inventory increased. Currently inventory has begun to rise and pending sales have become softer, much like 2023.

Falling Prices?

Will we continue to see falling prices? If 2024 is an indicator, then answer would be yes. However, that doesn’t mean home prices will follow the 2024 trend. 2025 is a different year. Interest rates are falling as are insurance costs. Some would argue we may not see many more rate cuts for a while, and if that is true, prices could fall further. Insurance costs are improving, so we’ll take that. Many Americans are tight on money, so there isn’t upside to spending, which means not much upside to home prices for a while.

There is potential for more price drops before things get better. There is also potential for prices to stabilize as sellers take their homes off the market and wait another year or two. The real question is, how many sellers can afford to wait a year or two to sell?

Seller Motivation

When I say how many sellers can afford to wait a year or two, it isn’t necessarily a financial decision. Sure, some need to sell because finances aren’t there to support keeping the home. For others, it’s more of a need’s decision. Sometimes people relocate, divorce, leave a home to family inheritance, etc. Keeping a home that no longer works for its intended purpose is a need to sell, and they cannot wait. We’ll be watching to see how inventory levels hold up versus pending demand and final closings. All this will tell us the direction and speed of home prices.

2026 Outlook

 2026 could start the year a lot like 2025. The blueprint looks the same as 2025 until something changes. When the government reopens, we’ll begin to get some data on inflation and employment. We may have forever lost October data, but we’ll start getting it again at some point. When the economy and the Fed quit playing around, the future will come into the picture. Because we have some extra inventory, the market may not move on a dime. Markets take time to change, but it will be nice to get a sense of direction.

As we write this article, we do not know the outcome of the mayoral races. Granted, mayors can only do so much, so many of the promises may never be kept. However, if socialism is adopted in major US cities, it could shift money out of those cities and states over to cities like Miami, Austin, Dallas, and others. Florida could be a beneficiary of money and jobs moving into the state.

Something tells me this won’t be the runaway election everyone thinks it is, but politics is not my thing. I only look at it in terms of how it could affect the real estate markets. By the time you read this article, we should know the outcome. If Mamdani wins, we’ll study to see if there are effects in the Florida real estate market going forward.

Strategy Session

If you’d like to have a strategy session with Brett or Sande Ellis, call us at 239-310-6500. We’ll be happy to sit down with you and go over your options. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a fast and free online home value estimate of your home.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Video Update on Election and effect on SW Florida Real Estate

 

Lee County single family September 2025 home prices fell 2.1% from last year, continuing a downward pricing trend in SW Florida. There was some good news however, as median home prices increased $5,000 from August numbers.

September 2025 Home Prices Fell

Official median single family home prices were $375,000 this September compared to $382,900 last year. I noticed some other notable numbers throughout the official release. Closed single family home sales were up 14.4% over last September. Remember Helene hit September 26th last year, followed by Milton a few weeks later. Many end of the month home sales were postponed or canceled after Helene hit, as well as Milton. When October numbers are released next month, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a big jump in closings this year over last. Last year’s numbers were suppressed by the storms

Helene and Milton

Helene and Milton were a double whammy to an area that was hit by Ian just 2 years before. The combination of 3 storms and flooding put a kibosh to home sales and prices we are still recovering from. Thank goodness no storms have hit our area. Florida has already suffered high insurance premiums, and SW Florida suffered more than most with the storms.

New pending sales are up 11% from last year. Again, it could be due to the storms, but we’ll take it. Pending inventory is down by .6% from last year. Official months supply of inventory stands at 6.7 months, which is a 15.5% rise since last year.  Inventory has begun rising again as we track those numbers weekly.

Strategy Session

We’ve had several sellers take us up on our offer for a strategy session. Many sellers aren’t quite sure what to do. They’d like to sell and want to know if the market is going to rise again with upcoming lower interest rates or decline more. We sit down and go over all the statistics, then look at their situation. After analyzing the entire situation, the homeowner decides what they want to do or not do, and when. We are not telling what they should do. Our belief is that homeowners should have all the facts to make the best decision for themselves, as it is a large financial decision.

Times Like These

In times of uncertainty, it pays to work with a real estate professional that is unbiased and studies the market. Having that experience and wisdom is critical. Listening to the Word on the Street is valuable too. Only an active successful real estate agent is tuned into what buyers and sellers are saying and thinking.

If you’d like a strategy session with Brett or Sande Ellis, call 239-310-6500. You can also check out www.SWFLhomevalues.com if you’re not ready to talk to anybody yet. Our home value tool gives you an instant value, and emails you each month so you can track the change in value each month. Many sellers love it, and we hope you do too.

Our LeeCountyOnline.com offers some features we haven’t seen anywhere else, so check that out if you’d like to search for property in SW Florida.

YouTube Videos

You might also like our YouTube videos. We produce a podcast called Gulf Coast Real Estate Insider as well as timely informative market news and information, and that’s all free. Simply go to https://www.youtube.com/@Topagent and check out our channel.

We’d love to talk with you. We’re available in person, on the phone, Zoom, text, video, you name it. We can discuss September 2025 home prices and the market going forward. Be sure to read last week’s article “Word on the Street in SW Florida”

Good luck, and Happy Selling!