What’s Going On: The Shutdown in a Nutshell

A U.S. federal government shutdown kicks in when Congress fails to pass appropriations (funding bills), forcing many federal operations to pause or run at reduced capacity. USAFacts+2National Association of REALTORS®+2

In the real estate world, that can ripple into parts of financing, flood insurance, regulatory approvals, and buyer/seller confidence. Florida Realtors recently published a guide detailing what to expect. Florida Realtors

So yes — a shutdown does matter to your home sale or purchase, especially in flood-sensitive regions like ours.

Top Ways a Shutdown Can Impact Real Estate Deals

Let’s break down what to watch out for:

1. Flood Insurance Disruption (NFIP) = Big Risk, Especially in Florida

Probably the biggest flashpoint here. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) requires reauthorization by Congress; without it, no new flood policies or renewals can be issued. Proof+4AP News+4HousingWire+4

That’s critical for homes in FEMA-designated flood zones (which is much of coastal SW Florida). Lenders will often refuse to close a mortgage unless flood coverage is in place. When NFIP data “turns off,” closings can stall. Newsweek+4Investopedia+4HousingWire+4

The National Association of Realtors estimates 1,360 home closings per day rely on NFIP coverage. Investopedia+1

If Congress lets NFIP lapse — even briefly — deal flow in Florida and other high-flood-risk states could sputter.

2. Delays in FHA / HUD / VA / USDA Processing

Many buyers rely on government-backed loans. Here’s how a shutdown complicates those:

FHA single-family loan endorsements typically continue, but with reduced staff. HousingWire+6National Association of REALTORS®+6Safeguard Properties+6
Multifamily FHA programs may be suspended except for “firm commitments” or urgent closings. HousingWire+3Arbor Realty+3National Housing Conference+3
USDA / RHS rural housing loans are especially vulnerable — new commitments are often halted. Gustan Cho Associates Mortgage Brokers+3Stratmor Group+3McKee Homes+3
Income verification via IRS could be delayed if IRS staff are furloughed, stalling underwriting. HousingWire+3Newsweek+3Safeguard Properties+3

In short: FHA loans may limp along. USDA loans may face outright pauses. VA loans are generally more protected but could see delays in supporting processes (appraisals, paperwork). National Association of REALTORS®+2HousingWire+2

3. Title & Closing Logistics — Mostly Local, But Not Innocent

Title insurance, deed filings, and county records are typically controlled locally, so many closings can still proceed. The Title Report+2HousingWire+2

That said, when federal wires, payoff calculations, endorsements, or last-minute adjustments require federal agency interactions, delays creep in. The Title Report+2HousingWire+2

So a closing might not derail — but expect “extra friction” in last-mile steps.

4. Economic & Market Confidence Takes a Hit

Even when the mechanics aren’t broken, the uncertainty of a shutdown can chill buyer appetite:

Some prospective buyers may wait rather than lock into a deal amid instability. RealEstateNews.com+3Inman+3Newsweek+3
Mortgage rates may become more volatile if economic data releases are delayed or markets become jittery. National Mortgage News+2HousingWire+2
A prolonged shutdown can drag on GDP growth (~0.1% reduction per week) and dampen consumer confidence. ABC News+2HousingWire+2

So you can have deals that could close — but fewer deals that will close with confidence.

Local Lens: What This Means for SW Florida

In Southwest Florida (Lee, Collier, Charlotte counties, plus coastal zones), our vulnerability to flood risk makes NFIP reauthorization more than academic — it’s make-or-break for many deals.

I’d expect:

Increased caution from buyers in flood zones
More scrutiny from banks and appraisers on the “insurability” of property
Local agents, title companies, and lenders leaning on contingency clauses or buffer timelines
A higher demand for private flood insurance alternatives (if available)
Some buyers shifting toward “safe” zones (higher ground)
Deals with conventional financing will fare better than those tied to USDA or multifamily FHA programs

If NFIP goes dark, I anticipate a surge of contingent or delayed closings in Florida — not because houses aren’t selling, but because the paperwork can’t catch up.

What You Should Do (If You’re Buying, Selling, or Investing Right Now)

Ask about flood insurance viability now
Don’t assume your broker or lender will catch it late. If your property is in a flood zone, double-check that NFIP will remain valid, or that private flood insurers are available.
Lock in your financing early, if possible
The more you can get done before a shutdown, the less disruption you’ll face downstream.
Give extra buffer time for closing
During a shutdown, even well-prepared deals can see last-minute delays. Build slack into your closing timeline.
Favor conventional / conforming over USDA or multifamily loans
Those federal programs are most vulnerable in a shutdown. Conventional loans (especially those securitized by Fannie or Freddie) tend to be more insulated.
Negotiate safety nets (contingency clauses)
Include language that accounts for “federal agency delays” so that neither side is blindsided.
Stay in close communication with your lender, title company, and agent
If agencies furlough, you’ll want to ride shotgun on status updates. Be proactive, not reactive.
Watch the news on NFIP reauthorization and Congressional action
Many deals will hinge on whether Congress keeps flood insurance funds alive. The moment Congress reauthorizes — things can snap back quickly.

Bottom Line (And One Reminder)

A government shutdown is more than political theater — it has real consequences for real estate, especially in high-flood-risk states like Florida. It may not stop all deals cold, but it introduces delays, complications, and uncertainty that can stall momentum.

If you’re buying or selling in SW Florida — or just want clarity on how this will impact your transaction — don’t go it alone. Always call the Ellis Team as your real estate authority in SW Florida.

We’re keeping tabs on how Congress, HUD, NFIP, and the mortgage world respond — and we’re ready to help you navigate the turbulence with confidence.

Closed median August home prices fell 5.1% in SW Florida year over year. The average home price in Lee County Florida fell 10.9%. Let’s look at some of the factors that caused the fall in home prices.

Official single family inventory levels are up 16.2% over last year. There is some good news though. New listings were down 10.2% and pending inventory is up 3.3% over last year.

Taking Longer to Sell

It is taking longer to sell in SW Florida. The median time to contract (64 days) is up 16.4% and the median time to sell (100 days) is up 2%. This means that homes that are marketed well and correctly priced are going pending in about 64 days.

Many sellers took their home off the market this year. We are starting to see inventory climbing again in September. It is not unusual to see inventory climb this time of year. My concern is we are starting from a point 12.67% higher than last year. Closed sales were down 2.4% in August, and in September listing inventory is up 12.67% over last year. This is not a recipe for increasing prices anytime soon.

Dollar Volume Fell 13.8%

Dollar volume is the sum of all sales. In August Lee County had a dollar volume of $565.4 million compared to $655.7 million last year. Lower sales and lower prices both played a role in this. Dollar volume is another metric we use to determine the overall health of the market. Dollar volume fell 13.2% in the condo market as well.

Buyers have not been afraid to bid lower on homes or ask for concessions. Homes sold at 93.3% of list price in August which was down from 95.2% last year. Anything under 94.5% in our experience is another example of a buyers’ market. Current month’s supply of inventory is 6.9 months, which is a buyer’s market.

Good News in Real Estate

There were some good numbers reported. New pending sales are up 14.4% over last year, which could help with official September numbers when they are released. The Ellis Team has placed several condos under contract in the past few weeks, so this could be a sign buyers are accepting condos again. In fact, closed condo sales were up slightly in August, and new pending condo sales were up 5.3%. Year-to-date condo sales are down 7.1%, so this is a welcome change.

Ellis Team sales are up considerably over last year. This is an indication of two things. Our marketing works harder to sell homes, or more sellers trust the proven track record of the Ellis Team to sell their property when times are tougher. It may be a combination of both, as people tend to be more selective when hiring an agent when markets shift.

How to Sell in This Market

If you have a property you’d like to sell, Always call the Ellis team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. Brett and Sande have 37 plus years of experience in all kinds of markets, and nobody markets the way we do. Marketing your home matters, especially in a buyer’s market. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get a Free and Instant value on your home. Additionally, you can track the value of your home over time, so it’s best to start today.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

I wanted to know the top real estate ChatGpt questions being asked online so I could answer them for this article. I also asked ChatGpt and Gemini, and the number one question for both was “Is Now a Good Time to Buy?”

I am writing this on Tuesday before the Fed announces their decision. Here are a few of my thoughts. It is expected the Fed will lower rates by 25 or 50 basis points. That is almost irrelevant because the market has already priced in a rate cut. Mortgage rates have fallen by .15% this week, which is the largest drop of the year. Assuming the Fed cuts rates, I’m interested in two things.

How does the bond market respond to the rate cut. The last time the Fed cut rates, the bond market increased rates by the exact same amount as the Fed cut rates. Mortgage rates are based off the bond market, not the Fed, so the bond market must agree with the cut. The good news is the bond market has been leading the Fed, so a 25 or 50 basis point cut shouldn’t scare the bond market.
What is the guidance from the Fed chairman after the meeting? Fed minutes are not released for 3 weeks after their decision. Chairman Powell will give us insight as to the board’s thinking and what led to their decision. It is in these tidbits the bond market and consumers will read into the forward direction of interest rates, the economy, inflation, and labor markets.

Is Now a Good Time to Sell?

ChatGPT said that sellers are asking this question. Inventory is lower than earlier this year. What happens if more sellers decide to sell. More sellers will now be competing for less buyers. This may turn as more buyers get into the market, but the wildcard is how many more sellers will enter the market?

The bottom line is we believe it is a good time for both buyers and sellers right now, for various reasons. That is not always the case. Look at 2021. Was that a good time for buyers? Look at 2024-2025? Has that been a good time for sellers? We are now entering a new time with different circumstances. Nobody knows exactly where rates will go, how long it will take to get there, and what the economy will look like as we go. All we can do is give our opinions on what might happen, and why.

Always call Brett Ellis or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 for a friendly chat about the market and your circumstances. Or go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com to track your home’s value. It will give you today’s value and track it over time. View our MLS verified Home Sales.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Podcast Episode 5- Skills Based Market

Our Latest Episode 6-AI in Real Estate

Price doesn’t sell homes, but being overpriced will absolutely kill a sale. Let me explain further.

A local car dealer advertises that “Our price sells cars.” That may be true for cars, but not for real estate. Let’s say you are a buyer looking for a Toyota Camry. You know the car, the features, and the trim packages. All new car models are built at the same factory, and each car is the same except for the packages and color. As a buyer, why would you want to pay more for a known quantity?

Price Doesn’t Sell Homes

Real estate is different. Even if the home is the same floor plan as another home, it could have been built by different sub-contractors and different materials. Of course, lot values vary as well. There are many more variables in a home than buying a new car.

Agents sell homes. To prove this point, I’ll illustrate a few stories. Another Realtor had a home and the listing expired. The seller called us, and we determined it should have sold and could be listed for more money. We raised the price and sold it quickly. Obviously, price wasn’t the issue. How did we do that?

We marketed the home differently. A lot goes into marketing, from where it is marketed and how often, to changing the perception of the home. Many times, we can spot deficiencies in marketing and know right away why a home didn’t sell. Other times it’s more precarious.

Have you ever noticed that many times the lowest priced home in the neighborhood doesn’t sell? It may be the lowest price, but is it the best value? Often a Realtor has a home that is priced correctly and it still doesn’t sell. In those cases, price isn’t it. Many experts say price fixes everything, and if you go low enough that works. But what if you didn’t have to?

Marketing and Sales Skills

If a home is the best value but nobody knows about it, will it sell? You might ask, with homes listed on the major portals, how in the heck would a buyer not know about it? A buyer may see the home in search, but the buyer doesn’t realize it is a good buy.

Let’s say you’re an employer interviewing recent graduates. 60 graduates have a high GPA. Which student is the best hire?

You might want to know if they all took the same classes with the same professor. You might want to know if their personality matches what you are looking for. Certainly, you’d want to know when they could start, and what salary they were looking for. I’m sure you’ll have many other questions for the candidates, because this is a big decision for your business.

Submit Your Resume

I think you can see the similarities in buying a home. A buyer assigns different values to size, age, location, features, etc. And each buyer is different, much like each professor is different. Students submit a resume to go along with their GPA, because employers don’t hire on GPA’s alone. Buyers don’t purchase on price alone. You must submit a resume on your home, and that comes in the way of marketing.

Lastly, after sifting through dozens of resumes, employers begin interviews. They don’t interview everyone, that would waste their time. They only interview the candidates that they think could work. Buyers are the same. They don’t want to see 100 homes. They whittle down the list to a manageable number of homes they believe could work. Great marketing gets you on their list.

You’ve Won the First Round

Now you must nail the interview. In real estate, the interview is the showing. Does the home show well compared to the competition? Is it priced well for what it offers? Together, you and your agent determine if your home will sell. Can your Realtor answer their questions?

We’d like an Interview

If you’re hiring a Realtor for the job of selling your home, we’d like an interview. Call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 We’ll provide a resume (Our Marketing) and discuss how we can get you moved without giving your home away. Always call the Ellis Team and start packing!

Many SW Florida homeowners have been caught chasing the market down in recent years, and it’s not fun. Sellers remember a few short years ago when the market was more robust. It is hard to let go of what your home used to be worth. Until you sell, that number is just a paper number.

Chasing the Market Down

It pays to know the direction of home prices when placing a home on the market. In a rising market, you can price higher than the market because in time, the market will catch up to your price. In a steady market, overpricing a home will add time to the listing before it sells and cause buyers to wonder what’s wrong with it. With declining markets, sellers get caught chasing the market down because it sits for a while with little to no showings. When prices are declining there are more sellers than buyers.

After trying the too high price for a while sellers decide to reduce their price, confident it will sell because they are now at market. The reality is they may be at the market of 30 days ago. Today’s market has moved again. Sellers tend to believe the market is frozen in time, and when the seller gets properly motivated, they’ll just reduce to the market and be on their way.

The Target is Moving

The real estate market is a moving target. Sometimes it seems like it stands still but rarely is that true. This is why the Ellis Team spends so much time studying underlying indicators that affect the market. Knowing what the market is doing before everybody else is a giant advantage because you can act and beat the market.

After sellers make that first price drop and they get discouraged. After some time, they make another, then another. At some point they begin to wonder if it’s the price or the marketing. A natural thing to do is blame the Realtor. When we take over expired listings, we identify why a property did not sell. Was it marketing? Was it the price? Who selected the price, and what rationale did they use?

AI Super Prompt

The Ellis Team studies pricing and marketing of the expired listing. We also have an AI super prompt that will help identify why a property did not sell and offer alternative marketing solutions that were not employed by the previous Realtor. Price plays a critical role, but so does marketing. In a shifted market, pricing it correctly may not sell it. When so many homes are on the market, you’ve got to do something to make a home stand out. Our AI program, along with decades of experience, helps the Ellis Team sell homes in a shifted market. If you have a home that did not sell, give us Brett or Sande Ellis a call. 239-310-6500 The Ellis Team has doubled our sales in 2025 from 2024 because of our marketing and pricing expertise. If we can agree that the market is a moving target, you might want to see the early indicators of where the market is heading next. Your home is a big financial decision, and knowledge is critical.

Stock Market Genius

Imagine if you had money in the stock market and were able to hire a person who had inside knowledge before anybody else. It would pay to use that person because you would be ahead of the market. You would have an unfair advantage, but it would be great. The same is true in real estate. You have someone with knowledge before anyone else. Our market research and experience have helped Ellis Team clients stay ahead of the market.

Get an instant online home value at www.SWFLhomevalues.com or call Sande and Brett. We’re here to help.

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Monthly Archives: September 2025