Last week the News Press ran a story about the rebounding housing market and they used inventory stats that said the single family inventory is down to 13,897 in Lee County, down from 14,113 the month prior. The only problem is, they were looking at the chart wrong as those were cumulative inventory numbers, not current.

Housing Numbers Becoming More Reliable
SW Florida Housing Inventory

It was an easy enough mistake if you don’t study those numbers on a regular basis. The chart should have quoted 3,579 single family homes on the market, but even that number isn’t the best number, and we’ll explain why.

I sit on the MLS stats committee and for the last year or so we’ve been working hard on cleaning up the data and defining how listings should be classified to best reflect what’s actually happening in the market. Look for inventory levels to increase because of this change.

In the past inventory numbers only reflected Active listings that were not Active Contingent Short Sale. In other words, agents were still taking offers to present to the bank or as backups until the banks accepted a short sale offer but it wasn’t being counted. At the point a bank accepts a short sale offer the property was to be placed pending, like a normal sale would be.

A high degree of pending sales actually close, but the same cannot always be said for Active Contingent sales, especially short sales. Another reasons aside from being a short sale a property could be listed as Active Contingent would be if something else has to happen first, like a buyer selling another property before they can close.

In this case a listing agent may mark the property Active Contingent and insert a Right of First Refusal clause and continue to market the property. To me, this property is still an active listing and should be counted in inventory. From now on it will.

It’s easy to count and search for sold properties in MLS, but it’s much harder to go back and search for active listings from the past on a certain date unless you have frozen copies of the database. Because of this, the Board of Realtors cannot post what the active listings would have been under the new guidelines since they weren’t searched that way at the time.

Some on the committee pondered whether it would be easier to just keep the status quo since we didn’t have that data. Most of us preferred to rectify and make the most accurate possible, even if it meant postponing the revisions to past inventory levels until we have a new baseline to present. Everyone on the committee concurred once the tough decision was made to make it right, even if it would cause some heartache and confusion for a few months.

Personally I’d rather take the tough steps now to get the most accurate statistics to agents and the general public, and the committee and the Board agreed.

Housing Numbers Becoming More Reliable

I feel much more confident going forward with the data that will be provided. All the definitions will be posted and any agent should be able to duplicate the data, something that wasn’t possible in the past. This will provide for full transparency and credible data, and should eliminate various sources from having differing standards and definitions.

While mistakes in the newspaper or anywhere else will always be possible, hopefully we’ve made some changes that will eliminate systemic errors. We still have the issue of various boards reporting separate data which can cause duplication in areas served by two nearby MLS’s, we can account for this within a consistent statistical deviation.

It really depends on whether the press is quoting one board or multiple boards as the source for their data, as some listing may appear in one board and not the other, and some appear in both.

I feel very confident in the new definitions presented by the Florida Gulf Coast MLS which will begin to take affect soon. In the meantime, we’ll continue to report the stats and inform you where we believe the numbers will change. Inventory numbers are low but will increase under the new guidelines.

We’ll talk about some of the new formulas in future articles that better reflect the SW Florida real estate market.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

A few weeks ago we wrote about attending a recent bank foreclosure and short sale conference.  We told you that banks and the US Treasury department have learned that home retention and loan modifications are not working, and that 2010 will be a year of “The Transaction” either by short sale or foreclosure.  More banks are actually pursuing both simultaneously. 

We’ve been illustrating graphs showing the percent of distressed sale activity in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Lehigh Acres for months now, and this week we decided to update Short Sale activity.  While analyzing MLS data this week we noticed foreclosure sales have dropped in January and February to about 579 per month, down from approximately 700 or so the previous 5 months.  This can be attributed to a backlog of foreclosures in process and a moratorium in place early in 2009. 

Closed Short Sales in SW Florida

We also noticed a stabilization and recent up tick in short sales, reversing a decline in December 2009.  Will these trends continue?  Let’s start with the foreclosures.  We believe foreclosure sales will increase in 2010 as the backlog comes to the market. In fact, we’ve received a large volume of foreclosure listings we’re working to bring to market.  It typically takes time to secure the property, assess the condition, the value, workup a Broker Price Opinion, compare that against the bank’s new appraisal, and meet with the investor to develop a marketing strategy on each property.  All of this is done through the use of a bank asset manager, either an employee of the bank or 3rd part asset manager.  Either way, asset managers specialize in disposing of REO (Real Estate Owned) bank foreclosures. 

Once the value and strategy is determined, the property goes from a pre-listing to an actual listing complete with instructions.  The agent then lists the property in MLS and solicits offers.  Many times the property elicits multiple offers, and the agent presents all offers that match the bank’s criteria.  For instance, we are not allowed to present any offers where we have not personally verified cash funds to close on all cash deals, nor are we allowed to present any subject to financing offers without pre-qualification from that bank’s in-house loan officers.  Banks do not want to take properties off the market simply because a buyer presents a pre-qualification letter from an unknown or out of town bank or mortgage broker.  Speaking from experience, banks and agents have had bad experience with pre-qualification letters.  They are easy to get, and are rarely worth the paper they’re written on, so it is quite natural the bank wants their own people to look at the qualifications of the buyer if they are getting a mortgage.  The borrower doesn’t have to use that bank, but the bank will not look at the offer unless they are offered their pre-qualification letter with the offer. 

So we know 2010 will offer more foreclosure properties that have been initiated in 2009.  What about short sales?  Banks are not offering loan modifications as much as they have proven that they do not work long term.  Politicians still promote the idea as it sounds politically correct, but it further exacerbates the problem.  We are seeing large banks making a push to go online.  Bank of America for example now negotiates their short sales online through a system called Equator.  We have been using Equator to handle Bank of America foreclosures for years.  We hear that banks such as Wells Fargo and perhaps others are in the process of adding their short sales to Equator.

This online venue will allow greater efficiency and allow more people to touch the file, reducing the time it takes to approve a short sale.  The short sale is still a complex transaction and homeowners should not attempt it alone.  In fact, your bank will refer you to use an agent who is familiar with the process.  Short sales are not for every agent and should only be tackled by agents who are committed to learning and operating in a very rigid and complex process.  Buyer agents regularly interview listing agents to make sure the listing agent knows what they’re doing, because if they don’t, the process will fail. 

Look for 2010 to see rising foreclosure sales throughout the year, and perhaps rising short sale numbers as well.  The banks are committing resources to it. We’ll keep reporting the numbers we track, so check back often.

Printed in the News Press, News Press Online, and Ellis Team Blog.

The News Press is sponsoring an online marketing workshop for Realtors and other local business people that could help grow your online business.

On Tuesday, May 12 from 9am-11am Mike Blinder will deliver an excellent seminar for a small group of business people in the Lee County area (place TBD).

If you are interested in knowing more about Mike Blinder go to http://www.blindergroup.comand you will see enough to know that you want to be there.

Call your sales executive now to reserve your spot.

Bob Reed, a buyer specialist for the Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group recently made the news.  Bob Reed is a tarpon club member and a former fish population biologist at the University of California, and is featured in this News Press story.

Bob has won the Tarpon Club’s tarpon tournament several years and proudly displays his trophies in our office.  Bob is our official fishing expert and is extremely helpful with waterfront property.