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2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report

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Welcome to the 2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report.  We love this time of year as we get to analyze how the previous year ended up and give our insights on what the future year may bring to us.

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Monthly Sales Prices

The headlines may read that 2016 ended with a whimper. We might disagree. All year we were saying sales were down and prices were kind of flat.  This was true.  2015 sales prices were revised downward in the latest official release so the 2016 numbers appear better than they were.  We eked out an 8.3% median price increase which is fantastic considering many months were flat.  December’s numbers really helped the year.  The last 6 months of the year showed median prices hovering between $225,000 and $230,000.  December’s shot up to $249,900.  Additionally, the number of homes closed shot up in December as well.

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Homes Closed

2016 sales numbers were down all year. Closed sales were down 6% for the year.  For the most part we were behind last year’s numbers except August and November.  This is not uncommon when prices rise.  As you can tell from the year end prices chart, we’ve come a long way back.  Would you rather be where we are today or 2007 which was a bit higher?

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Year End Prices

We’ve got a healthy market today.  We did not have that in 2005, hence the free-fall we experienced a few years later.  We have end users for our homes now.  Back in 2005 we had speculators flipping homes from one speculator to the next.  We had some cleaning up to do.

Southwest Florida real estate inventory supply increases in 4th Qtr

I remember as a boy my mom saying you can’t go out and play until you clean up that room.  That was Hell!  All a boy full of energy in the Midwest wanted to do on a sunny day was go out and play.  Being bottled up inside was no fun.  We didn’t have all the video games and Internet, so outside was where it was at.

SW Florida felt the same, only it lasted several years.  Our market was Hell for anybody who bought in 2006, 2006, or 2007.  We had some cleaning up to do.  2009 was the bottom of the market but it still wasn’t big fun.

Today almost everyone is outside playing, and most everyone has a clean room at home.  January started with a bang this year.  We think for the first time in a while there is genuine optimism about the economy.  This past election was fierce and gruesome.  People are glad that’s over and looking forward to lower taxes and a smoother mortgage process.  Both are in the works.

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Inventory Levels

Nobody knows how long this excitement will last.  All we can tell you is 2017 season has started off well, and we expect it to end well.  If a seller prices a home correctly, it will sell.  If a home is overpriced, it will sit.

Year End Sales Numbers

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Year End Sales Numbers

Buyers are competing to win a home.  If a home is priced at market, it may attract several buyers.  We have a balanced and healthy market.  Sure, we’re not back to the height of the market, and that’s OK.  Those numbers were not supported by end users or income.  Today’s demand is supported by people needing a place to live, not a speculative get rich scheme.

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Video

We have a full State of the Market  video on our Facebook page www.facebook.com/Ellisteam or watch below.

Be sure to search the MLS at www.LeeCountyOnline.com or get neighborhood reports here too.  If you’d like to talk to us about the market or how we could sell your home and find you a better home for you, please call us at 239-489-4042 Ext 4.  Brett and Sande are easy to talk to and we’re never pushy.  We present you with your options and we’ll help you accomplish them!

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

Additional 2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Graphs

Money in Motion

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Money in Motion
Market Intensity

Active Inventory Rising

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report Active Inventory rising

New Pending Sales

2017 Southwest Florida State of the Market Report New Pending Sales

SW Florida Real Estate Market Velocity

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One of the things we like to study is the SW Florida real estate market velocity. In a snapshot it tells us several key indicators about the state of the local real estate market.

SW Florida Real Estate Market Velocity
SW Florida Real Estate Market Velocity

We used this graphic at a recent filming of our Ellis Team Seller’s Club video shoot. Each month we dive deep and share key factors we’re looking at and how they’re affecting various segments of the market.

For instance, the market doesn’t all move at once. Certain segments may lead and others follow. Because it’s a video we’re able to illustrate more than just a graphic or two and 700 words. We can really explain each force and its effect.

SW Florida Real Estate Market Velocity

One of the numbers we look at not on this graphic is Total Dollar Volume. Total dollar volume is down 27.7% in July. Last year Realtors sold $420.4 Million dollars worth of residential real estate. In 2016 was $304.1 Million in July. Two factors contribute to this decline.

First, closed sales were down 17.3% Secondly, average sales price was down 12.6%. That’s a double whammy to the market. While these two numbers aren’t on the velocity graph, it does confirm a few trends on the graph.

Listings are up and new pending sales are down. Now you might ask, if new listings are down 2.5% how is it that overall active listings are up 15.5%? This can be for a number of reasons. Older pending sales could have fallen out and come back on the market. These would not be new listings. And even though new listings entering the market declined, new pending sales are roughly equal to the new active listings. So if any pending contracts fall out, and some always do, it adds to the listing inventory.

Lastly, inventory has been rising. It’s actually down from where it’s been in the last few months, but definitely up over last year.

When you hear the market is up, down, or sideways, it doesn’t tell the whole story. The headline tells one story, but the market may have several stories to tell. Right now there are 3 distinct markets with a possible 4th developing. We have the buyer’s market, the neutral market, and the seller’s market.

In our Seller’s Club video we dive into which segments are in the buyer’s market, which ones are neutral, and which ones are seller’s markets. Knowing where your home stands is important to know. And if you’re a buyer, this is also important information as it dictates how much you can gamble in your negotiations. We’ll be starting up a Buyer’s Club soon so buyers too can see in-depth information.

Whether you’re buying or selling, it pays to understand where the market is today, and where it’s headed. Interest rates and economic events can also influence the markets and we bring you our analysis on those as well.
If you’re a buyer and would like to search the MLS or view neighborhood reports, simply go to www.LeeCountyOnline.com

If you’re a seller, you can find out what your home is worth online, or view the same neighborhood reports. Neighborhood reports show you all the homes for sale, pending, and sold in particular neighborhoods. It also shows you time on the market for each listing, dollar per sq ft calculations, sold dates, and photo galleries of each listing.

Of course there’s no substitute for working with experienced agents who know the market. Our website is for those that wish to do their own research before speaking with a Realtor.

If you’d like to be added to our Buyer’s Club or our Seller’s club, send me an e-mail at Brett@topagent.com and let me know which one. We’ll get you on the list and on your way to receiving these great in-depth monthly video reports.

If you have a home to sell, please call us at 239-489-4042. Ask for Sande or Brett and we’ll be glad go over our marketing and show you why our homes sell faster and for more money!

Good luck and Happy Labor Day Weekend!