While many agents in SW Florida are complaining about lack of closings the numbers just do not bear this out. Statistically average sale prices are about what they were in the boom of 2005 and early 2006, and 2018 single family real estate closings almost at boom levels as well.
Back in 2005 we had 12,273 single family closings. In 2017 we had 12,356, and 2018 is on track to beat that. The peak for closings was between 2009-2011 when prices were a lot lower. Today we have peak level pricing and high levels of sales.
Looking at the single-family homes sold chart shows 2018 neck and neck with 2015 levels, which was a very good year. We ran Year to Date numbers and discovered 2018 is just 16 closings shy of the 2015 pace. When we look at real estate pricing along with months supply of inventory, we realize the 2018 real estate market is doing very well.
Back in July 2015 the months supply of homes was 3.8 months. July 2018 it stands at 4.9 months. Anything below 5.5 months is considered a seller’s market. The median price in 2018 stood at $255,000 and the average stood at $350,566. Back in July 2015 the median sold price was $209,830 and the average stood at $326,883. In 3 short years that’s a 21.53% rise in median price and a 7.25% rise in average prices.
Real estate agents tend to report on how the market is doing in direct relation to how their business is doing. This is not a good way to judge the market as shifts in market share can affect your production, and not necessarily the market. The average agent does less than 1 deal per year. The average full-time agent may do less than 7 deals per year. If an agent’s production goes from 7 deals one year to 4 deals the next, it might feel like a drastic market change has occurred to that agent. The reality is maybe their marketing isn’t working like it used to, or maybe they’re not working as hard or as efficiently as before. Neither scenario is a good market indicator.
Our team consistently sells over 100 homes per year. This year our goal is 225. Because we’re big advertisers, our homes sell fast and for top dollar. Large teams like the Ellis Team may siphon off more deals from single agents which cuts their production to less than last year’s levels. In this case, it feels like the market isn’t as strong, and they honestly tell this to their clients because that’s their experience.
It pays to study the numbers. Agents should study their numbers and compare them to the overall market. In doing so they’re much more likely to spot actual trends in the market and rely less on feelings and estimates.
We’ve been studying the market for decades, so we know when the market is on the move. Getting Top Dollar is a function of knowing exactly where the market is, and quite possibly where it’s heading. The only way you can do this is to know exactly where it is and exactly where it’s been. Experience and market conditions fill in the blanks from there.
Whether you’re buying or you’re selling, you need to know this information. Make sure you’re working with an agent that studies the numbers. If you’re considering selling, call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-489-4042 Ext 4. If you’re in the market to purchase, our team can help you too.
For a free computer analysis of your home’s value, visit www.swflHomeValues.com We have an app that has all the open houses every weekend. If you’re interested, give us a call.
Always call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty! We’re here to help, when you need us and how you need us.