The 2009 Ellis Team annual SW Florida State of the Market Report will be released February 18, 2009 at the general meeting of the Southwest Florida Investment Association.  It is located at Island Park Bridge Club – 16520 S Tamiami Trl # 16 Fort Myers, FL 33908

The format has changed from last year’s format. This year we’ll address the following topics:

  • Sales Trends by Area
  • Pricing Trends by Area
  • Lee County Pricing Trends by Month
  • Lee County Sales Trends by Month
  • Median Prices Vs. Avg Prices
  • $ Volume of Sales by Area
  • Find Out Which Areas are Selling
  • Identify Where the Deals Are
  • How Will Recent Lending Changes Affect Investors
  • How Will Recent Guidelines Affect Condo Sales
  • Don’t Follow the Herd-Be the First to Know How This Market is Changing and Capitalize
  • Get the Facts-Don’t believe Everything You Read
  • Find out How the Stimulus Package Could Affect Our Market
  • What Does the Latest Current market Index Predict for our Market
  • Should you be Positive or Negative in 2009
  • Ask Questions-Only Even of it’s Kind Where You can ask the Experts Questions

Compare areas such as Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Estero, Bonita Springs, Lehigh Acres, Sanibel-Captiva, Pine Island and see how your area is doing.

This year we’ve compiled two independent sets of data.  The first is the most exhaustive set ever compiled.  We tool MLS data from multiple sources, compared for duplicates, and deleted, and scrubbed the data for known errors.  We used this data to compile a comprehensive database.  Secondly, Jeff Tumbarello has compiled the area’s finest foreclosure database.  This year we have analysed both sets of data and we’ll be able to compare and contrast the two independent empirical sets.  Foreclosures have affected the real estate market, and by analysing the two together we’ll be better able to illustrate past trends, future trends, and show how the cause and effect is influencing the other.  We look forward to demonstrating the lagging and leading indicators in this market, and how you can plan to take advantage of this knowledge.

Click here for more information on attending the SW Florida Real Estate Investors Association meeting and viewing the Annual State of the market Report. 

Fort Myers and Cape Coral Real Estate Current Market Index
Fort Myers and Cape Coral Real Estate Current Market Index

 

The January 2009 Ellis Team SW Florida real estate current market index covering Fort Myers real estate, Cape Coral real estate, and Estero leveled off this past month and currently stands at 6.74, up slightly from 6.65 the previous month.  The index still shows signs of strong buying activity and overall market absorbtion.

Single family inventory for Lee County dropped below 14,000 this month to 13,740, while pendings remained relatively the same.  The Current Market Index for the entore county actually fell from 7.99 to 7.89, but we are reporting numbers in the graph for just Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate single family homes.  Single family home inventory has been falling nicely as the market has been absorbing homes to the market all throughout 2008.  Other agents are just now starting to pick up on this trend and report it, instead of the gloom and doom some have been reporting all year.

Next month we’ll be releasing our annual SW Florida State of the Market Report, which will be much more comprehensive this year.  We’ve been hard at work analysing the data and identifying emerging trends.  As usual, there will be some surprises.  We’ve spent extra time eliminating duplicate entries in various MLS systems, so we feel quite confident this new set of numbers will be the Most realistic picture of what is actually happening in SW Florida real estate.

We’ll be drilling down much deeper so you can see what’s been happening in various neighborhoods.  Stay tuned for official announcement for the release date for this very special report.

OK, who knew the video updates would be so popular?  This week’s video updates are in, and instead of doing our traditional in office video update, we decided to post some of the news stories we did last week on the local news.  This idea started out last year as a fun experiment, and what we’ve discovered is people like it and expect it.  This past week we received several e-mails and comments asking where the video updates are.

On January 6, 2009 we did an interview on WINK News 6 PM regarding Hank Fishkind’s recently released report and how he expects the SW Florida real estate market to go in the next 3 years.  We talked about affordability being back in the Fort Myers real estate market and how northern buyers are here this season and buying due to the low prices.

We also did an interview for WINK News at 5 PM and we talked again about Hank Fishkind’s stagnant growth prediction, northern buyers, and making money in real estate on the Buy Vs. the sell.  We disagreed with Hank Fishkind’s report to some extent on the SW Florida condo market.

You can let us know whether you like the TV News format better, or the simple video update like we did on September 15 in our office.  Just leave your comments to this post.

We also did news stories on NBC Today Show last September and also NBC NIghtly News with Brian Williams on October 8, 2008.

If you’d like to search for your bank owned bargain, or foreclosures in Fort Myers and Cape Coral Florida, visit out Free Search MLS website.

November 2008 real estate numbers for Fort Myers and Cape Coral were released recently and single family home sales in Cape Coral and Fort Myers were up 64% over last year, a trend we’ve seen repeated throughout 2008.  Median sales prices for Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate fell 53% from last year, down from $228,100 to $106,100.  Statewide home sales were up only 4%, so again SW Florida real estate has been leading the state in home sales.

Condo sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral were down 21% from last year, while statewide they were only down 8%.  Statewide sales prices for condo were down 30% and condos in Cape Coral and Fort Myers were only down 20%, perhaps a reason why our sales were down.  The better the pricing the more sales we are seeing in any particular market segment.

Fort Myers Cape Coral Real Estate Current Market Index
Fort Myers Cape Coral Real Estate Current Market Index

 

The December 2008 Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index again showed improvement from last month’s index.  The Current Market Index now stands at 6.65, down from 6.89 in November.  The lower the number the better the market is for sellers.  Transactions in the Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate markets were up again significantly over last year as our index predicted it would be.  Single family home sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral were up 78% over last year’s numbers in October.

Single family inventory is down 12.42% from last year’s numbers.  In December 2007 we had over 16,000 single family homes for sale in Lee County and now that number is down to slightly over 14,000.  With sales up around 80% over last year’s numbers and inventory declining, many would say that 2008 has been a year of recovery for the SW Florida real estate market, but we cannot do so until prices stabilize.  Median prices have continued to head lower all year and this is why Fort Myers and Cape Coral has bucked the state and national trends, because value and affordability are back in the market.

In fact, prices are so far below replacement costs that first time home buyers and investors alike are scooping these properties up as fast as they come on the market.  While more foreclosures are scheduled to hit the market in 2009, many are condominiums and vacant land.  We are doing a study right now along with the SW Florida Real Estate Investment Association to determine how many Lis Pen dens filings are actual home foreclosures.  Keep in mind, a property may have multiple Lis Pen dens filings which may skew the numbers, so we may not see as many foreclosures in 2009 as some are quoting.

Local mortgage companies are reporting fixed rates in the 4.5% range today with 1 point.  Loan amounts are also on the rise, which could signal an up tick in future home buying in higher price ranges.  We don’t look for drastic upward changes to median home prices, however we do like to look at mortgage applications to get a reading on potential future purchasing activity.

We see regular negative articles and news stories about the real estate market, but the numbers tell another side of the story.  Sellers do not like today’s prices, and nobody knows where tomorrow’s prices will be for sure, however we can report there is a market at the right price and this market has been posting large gains all year.  We think many buyers and investors have figured out there are tremendous buying opportunities available now and they’re not listening to the Downers in the market.

If you really want to know how a market is doing, follow the money.  Buyers are back in this market because the prices are Right.  It’s a lot like the BCS polls.  Don’t follow what the polls say; follow the Vegas odds, because that’s where the money is.  It’s amazing how much better the money does in picking games than the experts do.  The numbers always tell a story.  The real wisdom is deciding not which expert to listen to, but which numbers you should follow.  In the SW Florida real estate market you can look at falling median prices, or increased sales.  Both tell a story, and we’ll leave it to the market to decide what the numbers mean.  We just thought we’d present another side you may not be seeing in the media or hearing from other experts and let you decide.

The Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate markets again posted significant gains over last years numbers, bucking national trends and leading the state of Florida for the entire year.  Single family home sales in Cape Coral and Fort Myers were up 78% in October.  Statewide home sales were 15% and median prices were down 24%.  Median prices in Fort Myers and Cape Coral were down 42%, and this is the reason buyers are back in the SW Florida real estate market.

I speak with top agents from all over the country and many times they tell me sales are way down, but prices have held steady.  The reality is buyers no longer want or are able to afford the prices, so while sellers may not be selling for less, buyers aren’t buying, and that’s why their sales are way down.  It’s true in just about every market where sales decline.  Fort Myers and Cape Coral has led the state in reacting, perhaps because we had to with such a large inventory of brand new homes that were on the market, and this is the major reason Fort Myers and Cape Coral is leading the state back out of this.  Our prices are compelling, not just attractive.

In the first half of 2008 we noticed a lot of first time home buyers entering the market, which was a good sign going forward because it signaled affordability was back in the market, and buyers again had confidence going forward that 2008 was a good time to buy.  In the second half of 2008 we noticed a tremendous influx of long-term investors coming back into the market.  This is another good sign as investors have realized this market is priced so far below replacement cost that when this whole thing settles down they’ll be buying at tremendous savings.  Fort Myers and Cape Coral truly is having a 1/2 off sale and it won’t last forever.

Investors know that you make money on the Buy, not the Sell.  Interest rates look like they’re falling again, and season is just about here, so 2009 could get a little interesting.  Foreclosures have paused temporarily as lenders have suspended many filings.  Inventory has not increased all year in the MLS even with all the foreclosures we’ve had.  This is a very good sign as the market is absorbing all new inventory, because it is priced to sell.  The banks losses have become new homeowners and investors gains.

Not surprisingly Cape Coral and Fort Myers leads the states in condo sales gains as well.  Condo sales in Fort Myers and Cape Coral were up 48% while the median price was down 5%.  Statewide condo sales were only up 5% and prices were down 23% from last year.  Areas like Tallahassee were down 95%, Lakeland Winter Haven 64%, Ocala 75%, and Sarasota-Bradenton 47%.  As you can see, Fort Myers real estate and Cape Coral real estate is doing very well and leading the state.

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SW Florida Ellis Team Real Estate Current Market Index
SW Florida Ellis Team Real Estate Current Market Index

The November 2008 Ellis Team SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index showed continued improvement again in November.  We expect sales numbers to be quite positive when they are released in a few days, even if sale prices are down as has been the trend in 2008.  The index fell to 6.89 for the Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate market which is the lowest we’ve seen in years since December of 2005.

Cape Coral’s inventory declined slightly while pending sales increased again, and the CMI Index number for Cape Coral is down to 5.40  Fort Myers rose slightly to 14.56.  Lee County numbers overall fee to 8.64 from 9.16 in October.  Most of these numbers bode well for future sales activity as this index accurately predicts future closed sales and overall market health.

Condo sales in SW Florida are another story with the CMI Index currently at 22.64, up from 21.86 in October.  With season approaching we’ll see if those numbers improve in the 1st Qtr of 2009.

The latest industry asking for government handouts is the auto industry, which will probably be followed by the airline industry in short order.  It seems everyone is lining up for the government to bail them out, and the government seems to oblige citing what a tremendous harm letting them fail would do to our economy.  How we will pay for all this is not the topic of this discussion, as that would take a series of articles and discussions on it’s own.

Rather I would like to discuss the notion of CEO pay and union perks.  In past buyouts, politicians have been quick to limit CEO pay when the government is being asked to fork over US tax dollars to assist in saving a company.  I think this is a good idea.  I hate to see some wealthy CEO making millions with a golden parachute simply for running a company that would be bankrupt if not for a government bailout, and using US tax dollars to get that golden treasure chest at the end of the rainbow.  Probably only CEO’s would argue with that logic.

Now comes the tricky part.  Unions back politicians.  Unions like to secure jobs for Americans, and pay for it’s workers.  The problem is twofold at least, and this is why politicians have a problem this time around.

1.  Unions derive their power from the workers and use it with politicians.  Money is often funneled into campaigns, and there has been legislation about whether money can help fund a candidate.  Certain candidates have taken union money, and have been endorsed by certain unions.  Politicians in result feel obliged to protect unions as union’s helped bring them to power, so in essence certain politicians derive their power from the unions themselves.

2.  While unions have helped protect US workers in many respects from greedy companies who’d just as soon pay as little as possible to workers to maximize profits, unions may also be the very thing that is driving jobs overseas and making US automakers anti-competitive.  Now unions will argue that they protect jobs by not allowing companies to close plants or layoff people except under harsh circumstances.  The reality is when buyers do not purchase US cars because they don’t offer the value a buyer is looking for, being anti-competitive does help push jobs overseas to automakers who are making cars people want to buy.

I know many union workers here in the US make over $100,000 per year and work about 6 months a year when you add up all the days off and closed plant days.  The unions negotiated such a good contract that our workers are protected.  But are they really?  When you negotiate something so good for our workers that it causes our auto companies to be anti-competitive and bankrupts a business, is that really good for our workers long-term?

I would suggest that there may be a role for our unions, but they too must get into the 21st century and not demand so much from business that the business itself cannot sustain.  GM and Ford have lost money for years, but because investors have kept investing in the companies they’ve maintained financing and cash.  Those days are over now.  The companies themselves must be competitive on the world stage, or we don’t really need them.  This is unfortunate to say, because I believe we do need them and should have them.  But we cannot keep doing business in an anti-competitive way and expect to keep jobs here in US.

It’s sort of like states taxation rules.  When one state offers tremendous tax incentives over other states, companies consider moving to another state.  Why do you think so many corporations are in DE and SD?  I’ve been told it’s because of corporate and tax laws those states have offered in the past.  The same is true in business.  US wages may be higher, and that’s OK because our workers may be more productive.  But when you add on anti-competitive practices on top of higher wages, you wonder why worldwide buyers don’t always buy American, and in fact many American’s don’t buy American.  We’re just at a very competitive disadvantage, and it’s a shame because Detroit is starting to crank out cars people want to buy.

So here comes the big dilemma, and this is important as we discuss bailout terms, and it is the elephant in the room you’ll never hear a politician talk about because of the money and power involved in campaigns and unions.  We’ve got to work on limiting CEO pay in these bailouts, and that’s popular with the people because everyone understands that.  Before we give handouts to auto companies, we’ve also got to address a root of the problem, which is that our union contracts with these auto companies have placed them in a precarious and anti-competitive position.  It is unfair to our workers to give them contracts that work them right out of a job.

Before our government forks over more truckloads of good money after bad, let’s address a root problem and renegotiate some of these contracts so these companies can make it long-term.  After all, they are asking for US tax payer money now.  They didn’t make it on their own, so let’s try to fix what didn’t work before we give money to this situation.  True, some jobs may be lost and some perks may be lost, but this is better than losing an entire industry and all the jobs being lost.  The unions may lose some power, but how much power will they have if we lose an entire industry?

Nobody is against the American worker, and it’s quite possible reworking some of these contracts now will be the only thing that may save some of the American workers.  You cannot guarantee a job to somebody if you can’t sell a product people want to buy and make a profit doing so.  We’re in a world market, like it or not, and that old philosophy’s days are not only numbered, but this financial crisis has proved that it’s days actually ran out long ago and we’re just now at the crossroads today.  Let’s all work together to fix this mess instead of blaming everybody else.  Just fix it, and let’s keep many of those jobs right here in the US.  If we don’t, those jobs won’t be here forever, even with a bailout, because bailouts only provide financing for a short period of time and we’ll be right back here bailing them out a 2nd and 3rd time later on.

And let’s see if the politicians address this issue like they do the CEO pay issue.  Similar principle, but much difference in terms of how politicians get elected, so don’t bet on it.  How the economy and jobs go so goes the housing market, so these decisions do affect housing markets.

SW Florida Real Estate Home Sales Statistics

Fort Myers and Cape Coral saw a 128% increase in home sales over last year as reported by the Florida Associatiopn of Realtors.  Statewide sales were up 24%, but locally they were up much greater becuase affrodability is back in the SW Florida real estate market what is not priced into all Florida markets. Median sale price is Fort Myers and Cape Coral dropped to $141,400 from $231,600 last year.

Condo sales in Cape Coral and Fort Myers saw a 50% rise in condo sales over last year, while the median price dropped 17% to $185,000.

Home sale prices declined for the 4th straight month in Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate.  See our month over month prices graph. You can also view a monthly price summary by year for Fort Myers and Cape Coral real estate.  We’ve also included a home sales by month for the past several years for Fort Myers and Cape Coral.

We’ve created some videos for you to learn about the SW Florida real estate market better.  Some of these videos were newscasts done on TV, while others were simply us on a video camera talking about the market in our office.  We’ll be adding more videos like the newscast we did for NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams a few weeks ago, so stay tuned.

Thank you for reading our SW Florida Real Estate Home Sales Statistics update this week.  We look forward to bringing you further SW Florida Real Estate Home Sales Statistics.

This week’s guest on “The Future of Real Estate”  will be Lee County Florida property appraiser Ken Wilkinson.  Ken was the Father of Save our Homes Ammendment years ago and served on the Tax and Budget Reform Comittee that meets every 20 years.  Ken was appointed by the Governor to sit on that panel.  This panel came up with several ammendments voters will be voting on this election.  3 ammendments were taken off the ballot by a judge who said the wording was not clear to voters.  Unfortunately by law they are only allowed 74 words to describe the entire ammendment, so it’s very hard to get everything in and make it clear.

Ken will also tell us how property values have done in 2008 and what that could mean for your assessment when it’s analyzed on January 1, 2009.  The Future of Real Estate presented by The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group can be heard Saturdays at 11:00 AM on WINK AM 1240 and 1270 in Collier County.  It is also broadcast over the Internet after the show airs.

Next week we may have on Lieutenant Governor Jeff Kottkamp back on our show, so tune in next week as well.