Local Pending Sales Drop as Inventory Rises

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Local pending sales drop as inventory rises which caused the month’s supply of inventory to rise 70% in May over last year. New pending sales dropped 11% in May 2022 versus May 2021, while overall pending inventory fell 11.5%

The drop in pending sales comes at the exact same time as inventory rising to 57.1% year over year in May. This explains why we are seeing price reductions. New supply to the market is outpacing demand. We still have excellent demand, but the market is not absorbing all the new listings coming to the market.

Local Pending Sales Drop
Local pending sales drop as inventory rises

The month’s supply of inventory rose to 70% to 1.7 months supply. 1.7 months is a historically low figure, and yet we know the supply is outpacing demand.  This number will not stay at 1.7 months’ supply.

Price Reductions

Today I looked and there were 2,629 single family homes on the market in Lee County. 947 of the 2,629 homes on the market recently had a price reduction. This means 36% of all homes on the market today have had a price reduction since they listed the home.

Local pending sales drop as inventory rises
7-Day Market Watch

The most fun time to be a seller statistically was back in February.  Don’t get us wrong, it’s still a great time to be a seller, and homes are selling well, if it is priced correctly.

The question is, is it more fun to be a seller today than it will be a month or two from now?  We know it was more fun a few months ago, and by the trend we are seeing in the numbers, it very well could be more fun today than in the future.

We have been telling sellers for months, the sooner you decide to sell the better off you may be. This is true today as well. We are studying preliminary sales numbers for June, and it looks to us that median sales prices will be down against May numbers.

Sales Prices Lower

Official May median price was $469,950. I just pulled up all single-family home sales in Lee County as of June 28th, the day this article was written, and median sales price came in at $449,950. That is a $20,000 drop if the number holds up. Keep in mind, there are some outstanding sales yet to be recorded for the month.

Average sales prices look to be lower in June as well. Official May average was $658,886 and the preliminary average is $598,413. That is a $60,000 drop. Again, there are some outstanding sales that could change these numbers.

Top Dollar

While we have an excellent market, the data suggest the market is cooling. Your Top Dollar may be today, and every day you wait may cost you money. If you are thinking of selling, sooner may be better than waiting. If your home is on the market, adjusting your price to get it sold today may be better than waiting. If the market continues cooling, it may not be as fun a few months from now.

A word of caution though. Median and average home sale prices traditionally decline about this time of year, so don’t make too much out of it.  More luxury homes sell in first quarter every year. What is different this year is inventory is rising.

The Fed is also tightening, and the lending market has risen. We may be in a recession, or close to one. With all these events happening simultaneously it may be safe to assume prices have stalled until we get back to a lower interest rate environment.

If you have a property to sell, you should talk to Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 We study the market and can give you up to the minute advice. When the market changes you need an experienced agent who’s been through a shifting market and knows how to handle it. Check your home’s property value on our site at www.SWFLhomevalues.com

Good luck and have a Happy July 4th Weekend!

Ellis Team Weekend Open House

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2007 SW 30th Ter

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Two Types of Sellers in Today’s Real Estate Market

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Currently we have two types of sellers in today’s real estate market. We will go in depth on both and explain how each outlook can impact both the buyers’ and sellers’ future.

Two types of sellers in today's real estate market

Fearful of Market

These buyers respect the market and analyze facts. They tend to be motivated to get top dollar and do not want to miss this market. They realize the best may be behind us and they get that. Sellers in this category don’t want to be left holding the bag if the market drops further. They have watched inventory more than double since February and on its way to tripling by July at the current pace. These sellers know it is more fun to sell when there are fewer listings to compete with and they do not like that more competition is coming.

Interest rates have risen which has priced many buyers out of their current price range. Suddenly the homes in their new lower price range do not look as attractive as what they looked at before and they lose motivation. Many buyers have checked out and given up on the market at these prices. If they were on the fence with pricing, as many were, rising rates through them over the top.

Want the Price From 3 Months Ago

The second type of buyer wants the prices from 3 months ago, and some say throw in another $30,000 for good measure because those prices back then weren’t quite enough. These sellers lack motivation and want what they want without regard to market conditions. A few of these sellers still might get their price if their home is unique or offers something of value not readily available. Certain waterfront homes, or newer or updated homes might fetch top dollar plus simply because we still have a decent market, and no like kind inventory is competing with them.  As time goes on this will become more difficult once the market catches on and headlines change.

Headlines still compare year over year pricing, but we believe that will change in the coming months. We study both the year over year and the month over month statistics. It is possible we will see the month over month sales start to level off with the rising rates, and later it will show up in the year over year sales.

Because prices went up so much year over year late in 2021 and early 2022, we may not see the trend until many months from now, but the trend can still be there. Therefore, we will be studying the month over month numbers to get a quick blink on what the market is doing in real-time.

We already see inventory rising, less offers per property, and less cash offers. The financial markets are in turmoil, and it has worked its way into the real estate market. Consumers are not confident in the economy, and it is impacting buying decisions.

Thinking of Selling?

If you are thinking of selling, ask yourself which type of seller are you. Do you want to sell sooner before other sellers enter the market, or do you believe the market is still on fire like back in March? Marketing becomes more important in a changing market. When we meet, we can discuss the latest Ellis Team Current Market Index and what that means going forward. Remember, we developed this index that accurately predicts the forward direction of the market before it shows up in the numbers.

We are happy to share this with each of our clients. Call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 and we can discuss your options or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant value of your property with a confidence score. The higher the confidence score, the more accurate the valuation. If your property receives 85 or better, the system is confident in your number. You can watch your value change each month.

Good luck and Happy Home Selling! And please, vote for us as Best Real Estate Team in the Fort Myers and Cape Coral News Press polls.

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

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3951 Spotted Eagle Way

3951 Spotted Eagle Way Fort Myers Florida
Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

2007 SW 30th Ter

2007 SW 30th Ter Cape Coral Florida
Open House Sunday 12-3 PM

 

Two Types of Sellers

Inflation Rocks Financial Markets This Week Forcing Fed’s Hand

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Staggering inflation rocks financial markets this past week essentially forcing the Fed’s hand going forward.  This caused interest rates to skyrocket to over 6.625% for well qualified buyers, up from about 5.375% the week prior.

Inflation Rocks Financial Markets This Week

We are writing this article before the Fed makes its decision on rates. Some believe the Fed will raise rates 75 basis points while other believe 100 is in order. Essentially the overall market has priced in the anticipated Fed decision.

Of course, the stock market reacted negatively because rising rates is not good for earnings, which will impact stock prices.  The yield curve on the 10-year note and 2-year note inverted again this week briefly, which signifies what we saw earlier in the year. The financial markets believe we are headed for recession. The Fed will be forced to put us into a recession to curb demand and get inflation under control.

Experts disagree on how high rates need to go to curb demand. As oil continues to rise it adds inflationary pressure to everything, so getting oil prices under control is crucial. Failing that, the Fed’s job will be much tougher. As we write this article oil prices are at $123.50/barrel. Many believe it will go to $150, and if it does, the Fed may need to raise rates significantly more throughout the year.

None of this is good for the financial markets, and it’s not good for real estate either, in the short run. In the long run we know real estate holds up as a hedge against inflation. Home prices long term outpace inflation, and we have written an article on that. See our post from May 26th  Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation in Uncertain Times which covers that.

The game plan for buyers right now is get in before interest rates rise further, as rising rates will cost you much more than a possible price decrease from sellers in the short term. See our video from April 15th  Better to Buy Now or Wait? on our YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/Topagent which shows you exactly how much it costs by waiting in a rising rate environment.

We have been predicting this day for the past several months and advising our clients. There are no surprises for the informed. We always say, hiring the right Realtor makes all the difference, especially in a shifting market. What you do next will determine your financial future.

If you are thinking of selling, knowing the latest statistics will help. You must price your home for the market we are in and for the market we are going into. Some sellers are holding on to the market from 3 months ago, and those strategies may not work. Gone are the days of throwing up a listing and expecting 20 multiple cash offers. You may need to look at financed offers and appraisals.

If you are a buyer, you may want to get ahead of this. More listings are coming on the market to choose from, and waiting can seriously cost you. If you see a home that meets your needs and is priced correctly, you may want to make your move. Waiting for a seller to reduce their price 5% might cost you 15%.  This is what we just witnessed this past week. Waiting absolutely cost financed buyers.

Our team is not here to sell you anything. We present the facts and let you make the decisions. We do so in a factual and logical way so you can make the best decisions for your family. Most people appreciate the truth, and that’s just what you’ll get when you work with our team. If you’re thinking of selling, talk to Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com

If you’d like to buy before rates go up again, visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com or call us at 239-489-4042. We’re here to help. Remember, when the markets get rocked, stay calm and work with a professional.

Market Turmoil

Housing Inventory Trend Line Headed Upward

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Lee County housing inventory trend line is on the rise. Local inventory has grown above the trend line for 6 straight weeks. Housing inventory has risen for 17 straight weeks.

Housing Inventory Trend Line Headed Upward
Housing inventory trend line headed upward

This tells us the top of the frenzy probably occurred back in February. Agents across the county are noticing less offers on their listings, and the upward pricing pressure has abated.  We will still see higher prices year over year as the numbers come in, but we may not see substantial price increase month over month going forward.

The housing inventory trend line is a leading indicator for the local real estate market. Inventory levels tells us about the relationship between supply and demand. With inventory rising, supply is outpacing demand at these prices. Therefore, we are seeing so many price reductions in our market.

Sellers Pay Attention

Home sellers may have missed the peak of the market, but it is still a great time to sell. Housing inventory currently stands at 1.43 months supply which is still fantastic. We just do not have the upward pricing pressure fueling large price gains like we used to.

The best indicator we have is the Ellis Team Current Market Index. While we are no longer publishing this live data to the public, we can tell you that it almost doubled since April 26th, which was just 6 short weeks ago. Ellis Team clients get access to this data which is crucial in making proper pricing decisions in a changing market.

Focus on Marketing

Today sellers are hiring agents with a focus on marketing. The past two years we noticed sellers were interviewing agents and sometimes selecting the lowest cost agent. Perhaps they felt any agent could sell a home in the heated market, and that was true. Not all could get Top Dollar, but they could sell the home for full price.  There is a big difference in the two.

Today marketing matters again. Sellers are not looking for the cheapest way to sell but rather the agent who can fully market the home and get Top Dollar. When the buyers fall off, marketing becomes more important to sellers. As inventory grows sellers know they must make their home stand out. It used to be that buyers were in competition with other buyers for the best homes. Now buyers have more choices, and we are heading towards sellers being in competition with other sellers for the best buyers.

Home prices have exploded in recent years and sellers do not want to jeopardize cashing in at these prices by hiring an agent that simply puts their home in MLS. When inventory grows, buyers shop online, and homes begin to look alike. Each home has its unique features, and you’ve got to create ways for that home to be seen by buyers who want those features.

Target Marketing

This is why we target market. Placing a home on Zillow or Realtor.com is not going to sell the home when inventory grows. We take our listings and place them in interested buyer’s inbox, social feed, and search online. Our marketing contains various target sets depending on which listing we are advertising.

We can reach buyers in out-of-town markets who want to buy here. Why advertise to only local buyers when you can target out of state buyers too?

This is the difference between selling a home to just one buyer or reaching many buyers from all over. Do you think you would get more money if you had one buyer interested or dozens of buyers interested?

If you are thinking of selling and want Top Dollar in today’s market, we should talk. Call Sande or Brett Ellis 239-310-6500 We’ll be happy to discuss your situation and show you how our marketing can give you an advantage. Real Estate agents aren’t cheap, so why not hire the best? A great agent can actually put more money in your pocket at closing!

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

Father’s Day Giveaway

Oil Prices and Housing Market Direction Tied Together

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Could future oil prices and housing market direction be tied together? We are beginning to think future oil prices may dictate a lot of things, including the direction of the housing market.

Oil Prices and Housing Market Direction

Up until now, the stock market and housing market has been influenced by the market’s perception around the Fed and 10-year interest rates. How the Fed navigates inflation versus throwing the economy into recession has steered the markets up until now. Of course, food and energy costs are a part of inflation. The thinking has been, either higher interest rates will cure inflation or higher prices will.

Dependent on Oil

There is an old saying in finance that says nothing cures high prices like high prices. This assumes demand will soften for an item once it reaches a certain point. The problem with oil is, we are dependent on it. Not only do we use oil for our cars, but it is also used at many everyday things like clothing, roofing material, etc. It is a very long list.

High prices may not cure high prices because it is a need, not a want. The fear is the Fed may be forced to raise rates higher than Wall St thinks. This would be a double whammy because the consumer is not only being hit with higher costs everywhere, but they will also be hit with rising rates.

This will have an effect on housing prices going forward if this happens. Many believe it is already having an effect. Back on February 26th I wrote about if oil got to $115/barrel I didn’t think it would be good for our economy. In essence, it just felt like anything north of $115 would be a breaking point for the economy. As I write this article, oil futures stand at $119/barrel.

Scary Thing

The scary thing is oil could easily go to $130/barrel or worse. If that happens, $5 plus gas is on the table, and I just do not believe our economy can take that for long. This will also cause the Fed to be more aggressive than they have in the past, and Wall St has not priced that in yet.

The Fed has worked hard to placate Wall St, but the jig may be up soon. Do I feel the Fed has been honest about inflation to this point? No, I do not. But who am I to call them out? It does not matter what I have thought through this process. What I am saying is, time may be out, and they may be forced to deal with this.

It is also possible the Fed has some geniuses that know more than we do.  I should hope so. Maybe they have a better handle on this than we think. If they are right, real estate should be just fine and interest rates should settle down within a year.

Lots of Upcoming Economic News Expected

For the next two weeks people will be talking about the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, core inflation, unemployment numbers, workforce participation, and company earnings.  These are all the things that give us clues as to the economy and inflation, and the direction the Fed might take.

For my part, I’m watching oil. I think it’s as simple as that. I’ll analyze the other things once oil prices are under control. Until then, I believe we’re just massaging numbers and fooling ourselves as to how great things are and not dealing with the issues.  If we get oil prices down, the Fed has more choices. Failing that, watch out.

If rates rise, it will cost buyers more. Rising buyer costs ultimately hurt sellers because it limits what buyers can afford to pay. That leads to lower price gains, or reduced prices, depending on how soon the Fed acts.

For now, watch oil. If you have real estate to sell, call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a free instant analysis of your home.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

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3457 NE 11th Ave

Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation in Uncertain Times

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One of my finance professors in college named housing best hedge against inflation and I never forgot that.  He said tangible assets like real estate, gold, silver, etc. retain their value as the dollar is devalued due to inflation.

Construction Costs Going Up

In fact, as inflation heats up, the cost to build new construction only goes up. Because our market has been under-supplied for years, we are forced to build our way out of this. The only thing that could change the equation is if demand slowed.

Demand has slowed somewhat due to rising interest rates and insurance costs. Consequently, inventory has risen the past several months, and this should temper price increases like we’ve seen the past two years.

Whether home prices will appreciate or decline slightly no one can say. What we do know is the stock market has been volatile and has mostly headed down in 2022. Real Estate may be a much safer play in the short run, and the long run.

Housing Best Hedge Against Inflation

As you can see by the chart, since 2000 real estate has outperformed inflation. This includes the real estate crash years in 2006-2009. While searching the Internet I found more data dating back to 1967 that shows real estate outperformed inflation as well.

We May Already be in a Recession

Many people say the US will enter a recession in 2022. Others believe it will be 2023, and still others believe we are already in one. Negative growth impacts stocks, and as such we have seen a pullback in stock prices. When the Fed raises interest rates it is not usually good news for Wall Street.

Rising rates can dampen home affordability, and therefore it can have a negative impact on real estate prices short-term. We still believe now is a good time to buy before rates go higher. We did a video on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/Topagent) which shows how waiting to buy in hopes prices will come down actually costs a buyer when rates increase.  Send me an email if you’d like a direct link to that video Brett@TopAgent.com

Whatever happens with real estate prices in the short run it should be less volatile than stocks and should protect against inflation. The other nice thing about real estate is you can live in a home; you can’t live in a stock. You can rent out a home for income when you are not using it.  Real estate has so many advantages over stocks, including some tax deductions.

Is Your Home Working For You?

If you have a home that’s not quite working for you, now may be a good time to sell. Real estate prices are strong and while inventory is growing, it is still a good time to sell. If you wait to sell, you are occupying a home that doesn’t quite work for you, and it may be harder to sell when more homes enter the market in the future. Not to mention, interest rates could keep climbing.

As interest rates climb less and less buyers qualify for your home. If you are getting a loan on your next home, it may cost you more in the future. Interest rates have held steady the past week or so waiting on direction from the Fed at next month’s meeting. The inflation outlook will dictate how that goes, and we are expecting another rate increase in June, and perhaps several more this year. Either high prices will slow this economy down, or high rates will. It may be a combination of both, but rest assured the Fed will slow down the economy to get inflation under control.

The question is, will they overshoot and put us into recession? The other question is where is the best place to put our money in uncertain times.? Real estate may be a good option, and now is a good time to get into the right real estate for you.

Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams

To get your home sold Always Call the Ellis Team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to search the MLS, or www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get your home’s value instantly. Our marketing reaches more buyers, which brings more offers.

Good luck, and Happy Memorial Day Weekend!

How does Inflation and recession Affect Housing?

Housing Inventory Grows Most in Higher Price Ranges

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We just pulled new numbers from MLS and found that housing inventory grows most in the higher price ranges since March.

Overall single-family home market inventory in Lee County grew to a 1.18 month’s supply, up from .82 month’s in March.  Where we see the most differential between the two graphs is in the $300k price and up. Housing inventory grew the most as the prices go higher. The spread in each subsequent price range grew higher.

Housing Inventory Grows Most in Higher Price Ranges
May 2022

This explains why we are seeing price reductions again in the housing market. Some sellers got a little ahead of the market, and that was OK while the market was rising rapidly. Today, the market is price sensitive again. Sellers must be priced correctly in this market.  Competition from other sellers is coming as more listed properties hit the market each day.

March 2022 housing inventory
March 2022

It is still an excellent time to sell your home, but you must be competitive in the market. Overpricing your home in this market may not accomplish what you want.  We are not saying prices are headed down. That would depend on how many more sellers choose to list compared to how far and fast interest rates rise and how that affects demand.

Marketing and Pricing Crucial

What we are saying is marketing your home extensively and pricing it correctly are critical. Gone are the days you can just list it in MLS and post on some portal websites and it will sell. To receive Top Dollar, it takes marketing and correct pricing. especially when housing inventory grows most in higher price ranges..

If you follow this advice, we think you will be happy with the result. Sellers that do not do this will not receive top dollar for their home, and worse, might miss the market altogether.

The Ellis Team has been through changing markets many times in our career.  If and when the market does change, there will be some sellers that look back on 2022 and kick themselves because they missed one of the greatest opportunities in their lifetime.

Maybe the market isn’t as hot as it was 6 weeks ago, but it is still excellent. Throughout the history of real estate markets most sellers would kill to have a 1.18 month supply of homes on the market as competition. This is an opportunity for current sellers, and perhaps those wondering when the market would top.

We cannot say for certain if the market has topped and where it will go from here. Rising inventory levels and price reductions tell us it has at least paused, which markets sometimes do. Markets don’t always go up or down. Sometimes they meander awaiting direction from buyers and sellers.

We have so many factors pulling and tugging at this market, and it will be interesting to see which forces win out. Rising rates usually cools the market, as does fear of recession. However, Florida is still a popular destination that many would like to relocate to.

Thinking of Selling?

If you are thinking of selling your home, please reach out to Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500. We can guide you through the market and help you explore your options. We can even help you find your next home which is easier not that inventory is rising. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for a Free instant home valuation online.

If you are looking to buy, our buyer specialists are here to help guide you as well. Just call 239-489-4042 or visit www.LeeCountyOnline.com to begin searching the MLS like a pro.

Good luck and Happy Selling!

Ellis Team Weekend Open Houses

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Eagle Reserve Lakefront Pool Home
Open House Saturday 12-3 PM

3951 Spotted Eagle Way

3 Bed 2 Bath Pool Home on Lake

 

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Waterfront Pool Home Gulf Access
Gulf Access Pool Home

2519 SE 22nd Ave

4 Bed 3 Bath Home Direct Access Waterfront Pool Home

 

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Pool Home on Golf Course
Cape Royal Home

3 Bed 2 Bath Pool Home on Golf Course

11849 Lady Anne Cir

See Listing Inventory Rose 40% Since February published just a few weeks ago. Since that article, inventory has now risen 64% since February.

Is Real Estate a Risky Investment with Inflation and Possible Recession?

 

Good News for Home Buyers in 2022

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Finally, we have some good news for home buyers in 2022.  This article will spell out some facts that are benefitting home buyers right now and a scenario that may help in 2022.

Good News for Home Buyers

For the past several years home buyers have been competing with other home buyers in addition to personal investors and investment companies seeking return. Yields in the bond and stock market have been hard to come by in recent years, so Wall Street money started flowing into real estate.

With bond yields rising some money is starting to flow into bonds even though that is risky in a rising interest rate market. When rates rise, the price of bonds falls, so investing in bonds is risky until rates settle out. Just the same, some money is going in on bonds.

For stocks, the price multiples were so high it was hard to get any yield and investors were simply banking on higher prices in the future. Now that the stock market has been correcting in 2022, we may see money start flowing into stocks later this year.  Yield is much easier achieved at lower price multiples, and we are seeing that.  The only wildcard is future earnings and their impact from inflation and possible recession.

2 Scenarios

If money starts flowing into stocks again it could do one of two things.  It could take money out of main street and back into Wall St.  Or it could further fuel Wall St money and make its way back to main street via increased shared investment into real estate.  The answer probably depends on how far the stock market eventually falls and what the opportunity is there.  We didn’t see Wall Street money come over into real estate big time until stock valuations became quite high.

These investment companies have been scooping up homes and placing them in rental programs by the bunches.  All these sales are competition for home buyers and essentially take inventory off the market. If this trend slows, it could help home buyers in 2022.

We are seeing increased inventory on a weekly basis.  This past week single family inventory grew another 81 homes in Lee County while pending inventory dropped 38 homes.  That is a difference of 119 homes in one week. Not only is current inventory increasing, but future inventory may too if investors slow down their purchasing.

Wall St Vs Main St

The decline of stock market value may lead to this.  If investors start selling funds like Blackrock (BLK) whose stock is down 17.13% in the past month there may be less future investment in homes.  If Wall Street determines that real estate is about maxed out in price due to rising interest rates, they will simply evaluate their purchases on total returns of rent vs price and leave out expected future price appreciation due to almost free money.

Buyers have been getting hit by rising prices and rising interest rates. Rates are still probably headed higher, but price increases could slow down as inventory grows. Not only is inventory growing in SW Florida, but it is also growing in many markets across the country.

If the US enters a recession as interest rates continue to rise, it could further slow home buying. In this case, home buyers will have more choices to choose from, and perhaps lower home prices to offset those rising rates.

We believe in almost any scenario home buyers are better off getting in now before rates rise higher. Mathematically, if rates rise another 1.5% to 2%, it will take a drop of about 20% in home prices to make up for that, and we do not see that happening.

If you are trying to buy or thinking about buying, we may have more options for you than a month ago. Simply go to www.LeeCountyOnline.com to see All the inventory updated in real-time. Or call 239-489-4042 for a buyer specialist.

If you are thinking of selling, go to www.SWFLhomevalues.com to see your home’s current value online, or call 239-310-6500 for a Top Dollar Specialist!

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Listing Inventory Rose 40% Since February 15th

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Southwest Florida listing inventory rose 40% since mid-February as interest rates have also been rising.  Are the two numbers correlated? We’re not sure, but they could play a factor.

Listing Inventory Rose 40%
SW Florida listing inventory rose 40% since February 15th

We do know that many builder homes that have been under contract for a while are coming back on the market because buyers no longer qualify for the home they purchased many months ago. Home buyers are scooping them up, but that also means those buyers are not buying a resale they might have otherwise purchased.

Local Buyers Feeling the Pinch

Some local buyers have been squeezed out by out of state buyers and institutions buying property in SW Florida at a rapid pace. Not only are interest rates rising, but so are home prices and insurance. All combined it is pricing many out of the market. Many Realtors are noticing homes taking a little longer to sell and not quite so many offers on each property.

Another thing Realtors are noticing is the quality of offers has changed. A few months ago a property might receive 20 offers of which 7 were cash. Today that same property might receive less offers and none or few are cash.

Some properties are still in high demand and generate cash offers while others not so much.  Overall listing inventory is still very low, but it is climbing a bit. Back in 2019 we had over 7,000 homes on the market. Today we are at 1,503. Back in February we were at 1,071.

There is a difference between official numbers and MLS numbers we pull. I am pulling inventory every Tuesday compared to the official numbers pulled the last day of the month.  We believe we will spot trends before the official numbers are released 3 weeks later. In essence, we won’t receive official April numbers until about May 22nd or so.  Because we pull those numbers internally every week, we can report to you before the media does.

Latest Information

Ellis Team clients always have the latest information, and News Press readers of this article are not far behind. Opportunity is best realized when markets make a move and being the first to spot emerging trends maximizes our client’s ability to capitalize on that opportunity.

We are not saying the market Is changing today.  The best characterization would be slight shifts in the market, but still very strong.  I remember several times over the last 34 years we have seen a major shift coming and we were able to advice our buyers and sellers accordingly. By being the first to spot the trends we were able to save our clients a lot of money and change their lives.

Not every client comes to us before the market changes.  People must buy and sell at various times, and they are just in the market we are given at that time. In that case, we bring our considerable marketing and expertise to bear to bring them the best outcome for them. Best outcomes come from experience, wisdom, and marketing muscle given the circumstances. Rest assured, as the market changes, we will always put our clients in the best possible situation for them.

50 Basis Point Rise Expected

As we write this article the Fed has not announced their decision yet. We expect 50 or75 basis point change to rates, and mortgage rates have already baked that in to current rates. We will be looking at the outlook for future hikes in June and how the market reacts to the Fed decision and inflation.

All these factors affect home affordability, and eventually it can affect home prices here in SW Florida. You can always speak to Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-310-6500 and we can discuss your situation. Or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant analysis on your home and track future direction of prices.

If you are thinking of making a move in SW Florida, call the area’s top team in real estate. We’ve sold over 5,000 homes locally and we study the market like nobody else. Listing your home with someone else could cost you thousands, and it could cost you a sale altogether. You don’t want to miss this market, because it’s the best one we’ve seen in our career.

Good luck, and Happy Selling!

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Current Market Index Indicator of Market Direction

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Lately it seems everybody wants to know how long this market will last.  Thankfully, we developed an indicator for that years ago that predicted the changing market. It is called the Ellis Team Current Market Index Indicator or Market Direction.

Current Market Index Indicator of Market Direction

We analyze a series of numbers and from that it spits out a number. The lower the number, the better the real estate market is for sellers.  As the number changes significantly, it signifies a shift in the market.

Past Current Market Index Indicator Performance

Look back at the current market index indicator from 2005. Back in 2005 we went on air and told people the market was about to change.  While this chart shows 2005-2012, we were taking readings years before that showed a change was coming.  After the TV story broke, agents and consumers thought we were nuts. They commented that the current market back then was like a train on the tracks, and nothing could stop it.  Fast forward a year later and nobody was questioning what was happening in the market.

In September 2005 the CMI number was 2.11 but headed up.  That’s when we knew the market was headed for trouble. Today the number stands at .51, so it shows you how much healthier our market is today versus back in 2005.  We knew the market was not healthy in Fall of 2005, but few agreed with us. When the money is pouring in and people were flipping homes making $100k per transaction, sometimes you don’t want to see reality.  Greed is an emotional reaction. We are not saying greed is bad, but it is not always hatched from data or logic.

Numbers Not Based on Emotion

Fortunately, we study the numbers so we can impartially see what is really going on.  If you ask an agent how the market is, the answer you get will be in direct relation to how many sales they have the past month.  But that wasn’t the question.  The question is, how is the market, not how well are you doing in this market.

You see, the agents answer is also born out of emotion.  It is a feeling, and they feel good about the market when they are making sales.  When a client is paying you for real estate advice, they aren’t paying for how good you feel as an agent. The agent doesn’t mean any harm by it, it’s what they know.

We will report our CMI numbers from time to time, but we do reserve this data in real-time for our current clients.  Our clients are the most informed about what is going on in the market.

Gary Keller

Gary Keller runs the nation’s largest real estate franchise operation in America, and we can tell you what he watches. Gary looks at three indicators. 1. # of Homes sold. 2. Change in median price 3. Change in inventory.

We also look at these metrics as we agree with Gary, they are excellent indicators.  They are not the exact same as our index, but you can never go wrong with advice from Gary who looks at the national picture. There is more than one way to analyze a market, and many are worth studying.

So where is the market headed?  We have some headwinds to contend with, but we also have some things in our favor in Florida as well.  It seems everybody wants to be here, and demand is high. How high and how long that continues is the question.

See the Trend and Move Before the Market Moves

While the answers may not be apparent just yet, we can say we will see the trend before the market feels it. Closed sales are a lagging indicator in a changing market.

The last several market changes we were able to advise our clients and make their move before the change was felt. When our market changes again we hope to do the same.

If you’re considering making a move in this market, call Brett or Sande Ellis 239-310-6500 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com to get an instant idea of your home’s value in today’s market.

If you need advice and want to plan your next move, it pays to talk to us!

Good luck and Happy Home Selling!

 

Where are home prices going as the Fed raises rates? https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6305514610112