The past few weeks we’ve released data on the SW Florida real estate market showing a pretty healthy market. We have noticed a shift in buyer attitudes the past several weeks and those can be a blip on the map or the start of a trend. Late Season always provides the answers to that, so we won’t be able to track for several more weeks.

Real Estate Inventory Levels Stable in SW Florida

What we can track among other things is the Months Supply of Inventory. We’ve provided the graph from last year showing the overall single family market at a supply of 5.5 months. Anything less than 6 months is considered a seller’s market. A balanced market is generally a 6-9 months supply of homes on the market.

In 2016 we’re looking at a 5.03 months supply of homes on the market, so it’s more of a seller’s market today than it was last year. Almost all categories improved except for a few. The $400,000-$700,000 market went from 10.89 months last year to 13.95 months this year. The $600k-$1 Million market went up as well, but ever so slightly from 14.12 months to 14.30 months.

Real Estate Inventory Levels Stable in SW Florida January 2015

Real Estate Inventory Levels Stable in SW Florida

Overall we’d say these are pretty stable numbers. Most other price ranges decreased which puts more pressure on buyers. So here’s the takeaway if you’re considering selling in this market.

You should always price your home correctly. That’s a given. And if you’re selling a home in the $300k+ range, you’re looking at supply of inventory over 6 months. If you’re over $400k you’re facing significantly more competition for the same buyers, so it will take longer to sell your home. There are fewer buyers the higher in price you go, and I’m sure this is true in most markets across the US. That’s not rocket science.

What’s amazing this year is how dramatically the chart starts moving right at $400,000. And this year we’re seeing resistance over $300k which may influence the numbers later on in the year.

Keep in mind these data points are good for a specific point in time. It’s like a photo. It shows you what’s happening at a specific moment. A movie however is a series of snapshots over time, or even perhaps real-time if it’s live video. In the trenches we’re seeing buyer reluctance.

It’s kind of like a fishing hole. You go there every day for a few years and it produces results. And the next day seems better than the last, until one day something changes. You get nibbles and bites, but you can’t hook-em like you did the day before. It takes more work, and even then you don’t always get them in the boat. Sometimes they find a way to sneak off your line by the time you reel them in.

Agents today feel like that fisherman where something is up. You’re not sure if it’s the weather or what’s affecting the fish. All you know is the fish are running scared and they’re hard to land.

If you’re a buyer, homes in many price ranges are flying off the shelf. And rates are low, so now is the time to lock down that purchase. As you move higher in price there is more selection.

If you’re a seller, you need the advice of a seasoned expert to guide you through the market. When there is a shift in the market, an expert can be the difference between getting bites and getting the fish in the boat. The Ellis Team can help if you need us. 239-489-4042

You can search the MLS at www.LeeCountyOnline.com if you prefer to start online. We have Free market reports too on our site so you can see what’s going on in your neighborhood. When you’re ready to make a move, give us a call. We can go over your options.

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

Watch the Future of Real Estate on a Shifting SW Florida Real Estate Market

This past week official SW Florida 2015 year end sales prices released and as expected single family home prices showed a price gain of 12.96%  Closed home sales were up 9.7% over 2014 numbers as well, so all in all we’d call 2015 a very successful year.

SW Florida 2015 Year End Sales Prices Released
Year End Sales Prices

As you can tell by the Year End Prices Graph our market has risen every year since the bottom in 2009.  We’re still not back at peak 2005 prices.  We have risen to mid 2007 levels when the market was in free-fall.

When prices rise it doesn’t mean they are guaranteed to rise at the same rate.  In fact, they’re not guaranteed to rise at all.  One of the steepest rises was in 2004 but once 2005 hit the party was over.  We started warning in Fall of 2005 the party was over but few would listen.

Today we aren’t warning anything like that, but we are seeing a shift in the market towards a more balanced market.  If you asked Realtors who have been in the business for any length of time most would probably say a healthy balanced market is the most fun to work because neither buyer nor seller have a leg up on the other and both must act rationally to accomplish their goals.  Of course, not every buyer or seller knows where we really are at any given time and are stuck on yesterday’s headlines sometimes.

One little report I like to look at from time to time is the Market Watch Report published when we log into MLS.  This can be customized.  I have mine set today to look at all activity in Lee County Florida within the past 24 hours.  This can be changed to homes only, condos only, etc and the time period can be adjusted as well.  I look at various time periods.

SW Florida 2015 Year End Sales Prices Released Market Watch
Market Watch

The graph I’m sharing with you today shows 24 hours.  One thing we notice is new listings are outpacing pending sales 84-66.  You’ll also notice sellers that have failed to sell are reducing prices.  There were 101 price reductions in the last 24 hours.  Now this could have been in response to last week’s article about a shifting market, but Realtors in general know when a listing is not receiving showings or losing out to other homes because of price.

Most Realtors will consult with their sellers if they believe the market isn’t responding to their asking price much the same buyer agents must consult with an unreasonable and unrealistic buyer.

Greed works in both directions.  Sellers want the absolute most for their home and buyers are afraid to make a mistake and want to pay the absolute least they can for a home.  It’s the Realtor’s job to educate their customer on the reality of the market.  A balanced market is always the most fun because you’re educating both sides versus scolding one side that refuses to acknowledge the major up or down trend.

A good way to research the market is to search active, pendings, and solds in a given area.  Our Blog blog.topagent.com gives weekly SW Florida market reports, and our MLS search site www.LeeCountyOnline.com lets you search all the listings and view Market Reports.  The market reports tell you what homes are selling for per sq ft in a neighborhood and the average days on market.  You can customize this search for any area.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, there is no substitute for talking with a professional.  We hope the online tools give you some great information, but please call us and we’ll be glad to sit down with you and go over your options.

Always Call the Ellis Team, we’ll handle you with care!  239-489-4042

This Weekend’s Open Houses

Saturday 1-4 PM

6087 Waterway Bay Dr

Open Saturday 1-4 PM

12510 Kentwood Ave

Is there a shift in SW Florida real estate market?  Many agents I’ve talked to have complained that buyers thus far this year lack a sense of urgency.  They’re making offers at times but then shutting off to counter-offers.  For some listings, there are no offers at all.

Last year it was common to have multiple offers per property.  Prices were rising and Realtors could price homes ahead of the last known sale.  This year might be different.  We’ve noticed a slowdown of offers on homes priced about $275,000 and up.  One Realtor we talked to this week has noticed a slowdown on homes over $200,000.

Is the stock market affecting the real estate market?  Some speculate yes, others aren’t so sure.  Sometimes there is a flight to tangible assets like real estate when the stock market is in trouble.  Other times the stock market affects consumer confidence and people are afraid to do anything.

Let’s look at some of the numbers.  Just because Realtors start talking doesn’t mean the numbers bear out their suspicions.

Shift in SW Florida Real Estate Market February Pending Sales
SW Florida Pending Sales Feb 1-9 2016

Last year there were 1,537 new pending sales in February.  As of February 9th, 2016 there are 217 new pending sales.  The average list price of those pending sales are $280,569.  We know that closed sales were down 2.8% in December.  Unofficial January numbers suggest sales were down 12.7%

This confirms that so far this year new pending sales are off as well.  Of the pending sales, average price is down.  We won’t know what these pendings close at until they close, and of course we’re not dealing with a full month.  In December, the average closed sale price was $333,735.  Official January numbers won’t be released until later this month.  If the rest of the month holds true, it would confirm strength in the lower price ranges and lack of urgency above $280,000.

Shift in SW Florida Real Estate Market Closed Sales 2015
SW Florida Closed Home Sales

What should sellers do with this information?  They could wait and see if this is a temporary lag in the market.  This sometimes happens as season picks up steam the latter half of February and into March.  Or, sellers could reposition their home in the marketplace and be the first ones out in case buyers remain unmotivated.

In January we listed two condos in Reflection Lakes and sold both within a matter of days.  Just because the overall market may see a shift doesn’t mean all properties are affected exactly the same.

If you’re putting your home on the market, it pays to look at what has sold and what your competition looks like.  Look at it objectively like a buyer would.  If you have had your home on the market, look back and see how you made your initial determination.  Did you price ahead of the market expecting the market to increase?

Look at it like a basketball game.  Just because your team had a good 1st quarter doesn’t guarantee you a solid 4th quarter.  To win you have to be better at the end of the game, not just at the start.  If your home has been on the market and not selling it’s either the marketing or the price.  And even if it’s the marketing, chances are it still might be the price as well.

I’ve been tracking a few listings that interviewed with us and went with another Realtor who listed at a higher price.  In each case, those properties are still on the market and they’ve reduced the price down to where we initially said.  They are still on the market, and if buyers remain indecisive, they may end up reducing more.

Sometimes it’s best to be the first one out than to languish on the market and compete with all the other sellers reducing their prices.  Of course, Season could kick in any moment and clear out the inventory shelves.

Check your competition for yourself at our SW Florida MLS Search Site or call us at 239-489-4042  We can help you sell your home and find your next home as well.

This Weekend’s Open Houses

Saturday 1-4 PM

6087 Waterway Bay Dr

Open Saturday 1-4 PM

12510 Kentwood Ave

SW Florida real estate home prices aren’t quite back to what they were in January 2006 however Southwest Florida home prices rise to highest level in years.

December 2015 median home sales price in Lee County came in at $231,000 which was a 21.6% increase over sales in 2014. Average sales prices rose 17.2% up to $333,735 in December.

Southwest Florida Home Prices Rise to Highest Level in Years

Closed sales fell 2.8% in December and most attribute that to delayed closings due to new Federal regulations knows as TRID.  We’ve written extensively on how TRID would delay or kill some closings and you can search those articles right here on our Blog

While overall sales fell 2.8%, cash sales fell 10.8%.  We don’t really have an explanation other than as prices rise we tend to see more financed sales.

Each year listing inventory increases starting in January but this year we actually saw a 4.2% decrease.

January started out strong.  Typically sales don’t pick up until about January 18th or so, but this year it was early.  If anything we perhaps saw a slowdown in the 2nd half of January.  Perhaps this was reaction to major stock market corrections?  We don’t know, and we hesitate to get caught up in sales activity over a one or two week period.  January isn’t the biggest month for sales anyway.

Sales tend to build in season.  February becomes a very strong month and March builds on top of that.  Mortgage rates have actually fallen with all the financial turmoil, so buyers may benefit from that when they go to purchase.

Official year end stats for 2015 won’t be released until February 17th, so we’ll wait and report that breaking news on our Blog that day.  You may wish to subscribe to our Blog so you don’t miss it.  We know year end prices will be up; it’s just a matter of how much.  Sellers like to know as it forebodes next year’s tax assessments.  It also gives sellers a good idea in case they are considering selling.

If you’re considering selling you might like to check our the Market Reports section on our Southwest Florida MLS search website   We wrote about this new feature last week and many signed up to receive real-time reports of active listings, pending sales, and solds in their neighborhood.  If your neighborhood isn’t listed yet, you can create your own.

If you’re a buyer, you can use our website to search for properties.  Buyers love it because it’s updated every 5 minutes.  It’s fun as a Realtor to make a change in MLS and watch it update on our site in just a minute or so.  A lot of national websites don’t update or don’t have all the listings, so buyers get frustrated when the home that interests them isn’t there or sold months ago.

That won’t happen on our website as long as Realtors have updated the MLS.  While buyers love shopping on our site, there’s no substitute for sitting down with a knowledgeable professional who will listen to your needs and make suggestions.  People who are not from here feel at a disadvantage because they don’t know the area.  They want local help from someone who cares and knows the area.

That’s where we come in.  We’re the Name You Know.  We don’t try to sell you anything.  We just educate you on the market and guide you in the right direction so you can make the best decision for you.

Call us today at 239-489-4042 or search online at LeeCountyOnline.com

Good luck and Happy House Hunting!

The Ellis Team is growing.  We’d like to welcome two fantastic additions to our team.  Ashley Johnson and Alisha Swientek have joined the team as buyer specialists.  Both bring a wealth of real estate experience to the team.  They look forward to helping you find your dream home, along with Kevin Ellis and Chris Herrington.  We are deeply proud of each of our team members as they share our values and goals of helping our customers buy or sell the perfect home for them.