The Ellis Team at RE/MAX Realty Group just released their monthly SW Florida Real Estate Current Market Index and once again the Index has strengthened.  We’ve been reporting for months now the local SW Florida real estate market is firming as the Current Market Index accurately predicts real estate activity into the future.  Because of these numbers, we look for some continued strengthening in closed sales numbers for March and April.  Official March 2008 numbers should be released around April 25, 2008.

We are seeing strength because many of the short sales that were clogging the system have converted to foreclosures and are now being sold by one lender able to make decisions.  A short sale often involves multiple lenders plus a seller, and all have to agree to the sale.  Lenders in second position often don’t agree because there is nothing in it for them to agree, and lenders in first position don’t like to agree to a loss unless the second is completely wiped out.  There are exceptions to this, but we are seeing only about 3% of the short sales actually closing, and just about all of the foreclosures closing in due time.

Median prices have actually been rising, but we’re not focusing on that right now as many of the foreclosures are occuring at the bottom of the market, which could skew the numbers down.  By skewing numbers down, some could interpret that the entire market is coming down further, and that may or may not be true.  Median price doesn’t tell the whole story.  We have pockets of weakness and pockets of strength, and all real estate is local all the way down to the street and neighborhood level.

The higher the CMI Index, the more supply we have relative to demand.  The lower the CMI Index, the better the market for sellers.  As you can see, buyers are losing some of their leverage now.

April 15,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,706 1,656 9.48
Condo 8,445 602 14.03

 

March 15,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,357 1,610 10.16
Condo 8,789 603 14.58

 

February 14,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,694 1,088 15.34
Condo 8,787 456 19.27

 

January 14,  2008 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,812 821 19.26
Condo 8,581 334 25.69

 

December  17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 16,098 892 18.05
Condo 8,655 386 22.42

 

November 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,710 797 19.71
Condo 8,361 388 21.55

 

October 16, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,438 783 19.72
Condo 8,212 354 23.20

 

September 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,215 809 18.81
Condo 8,141 369 22.06

 

August 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 14,919 955 15.62
Condo 8,190 417 19.64

 

July 12, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,095 975 15.48
Condo 8,380 443 18.91

 

June 14, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,164 1,014 14.95
Condo 8,761 485 18.06

 

May 17, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,607 1,107 14.10
Condo 9,205 560 16.44

 

April 15, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 15,896 1,152 13.80
Condo 9,660 569 16.98

 

January 23, 2007 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,769 1,016 13.55
Condo 9,002 529 17.02

 

November 27, 2006 Active Pending CMI
Single Family 13,186 1,031 12.79
Condo 8,344 535

15.60

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